Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino • Hacker News Board

Re: Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino

#151

Post by hef19898 » Fri, Jul 05, 2019, 5:01 PM UTC

tasuki wrote: post #102

hef19898 wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't usually gamble, when I do it is roulette. Easy rules ans I only play the probabilities. I also the approach you mentioned above, never more than say 20 bucks with maybe another 10 as hard reserve. Quit when I'm ahead by a factor of, again like you, roughly 2x. And playing smaller amounts, meaning not everything at once but reasonably high, provides enough entertainment gambling for at least an hour. So in the…

> enough entertainment gambling for at least an hour. So in the end, even if everything is lost, I had my fun. I wonder what you find entertaining/fun about this. I've been to casinos a couple of times. The only parts I found entertaining were observing people and the free drinks.

Once every two years it's kind of fun. And playing the odds, well sure probabilities are low, buts that's what is to understand about it. By no means as complex as, say, blackjack. And I like to have at least a slight idea of what I'm getting into. Blackjack, no chance. Roulette, at least I know the odds up front whatever they may be.

And yes, the other people are the sometimes the funniest part. And the saddest. Seeing people using what is my month salary in around two hours... On the other hand playing only one or two bucks per game and others reaction is fun.

Re: Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino

#152

Post by TremendousJudge » Fri, Jul 05, 2019, 6:21 PM UTC

mongol wrote: post #69

TBurette wrote: post #50

A while ago I wrote a similar interactive article to prove that the martingale betting technique at the roulette doesn't work : [1]. The martingale is when you bet 1, double the bet each time you lose, start again at 1 when you win. The aim was to create a single page anybody could link to that proves without a doubt the abysmal odds of making money off the roulette with the martingale technique. Instead of pre-writt…

Theoretically I learned it works, but only if you have unlimited funds.

"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

Re: Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino

#153

Post by TremendousJudge » Fri, Jul 05, 2019, 6:24 PM UTC

doomjunky wrote: post #93

paulcarroty wrote: post #90

It's absolutely obviously for people who know the basics of Probability theory. Not sure if modern high schools covers it now. But it's only a part of the problem. Second part - money and gaming easily can be addictive like drugs.

Everything that makes your brain feel good, can be addictive. Not the drugs are addictive, feeling good is.

Yes, that's what psychological addiction is. Make no mistake though, chemical addiction is very real. Alcohol withdrawals can be fatal

Re: Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino

#154

Post by potatote » Fri, Jul 05, 2019, 6:49 PM UTC

obenn wrote: post #150

potatote wrote: post #149

I do not have a lot of background on statistics. Hoping someone here could explain why in Roulette game, although the apparent chances of getting number between 0-18 (inclusive) and 19-36 (inclusive) are the same, we lose money if we keep playing more and more numbers of games.

The 0 does not count as a lower number. There at 18 numbers in both the groups 1-18 and 19-36. Each of these give a 18/37 chance of winning, which is lower than 50% and therefore loses in the long run when the money is being doubled on a win.

Ah...I see. I am not much of a gambler either, so this is a very useful piece to know why Roulette gambling, in the long run, turns negative for the gambler. Thank you.

Re: Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino

#155

Post by mateo411 » Fri, Jul 05, 2019, 7:36 PM UTC

The American roulette wheel has 38 slots, which include a zero and a double zero. The French roulette wheel has 37 slots. The house edge on the french wheel is half of what it is on the American wheel.

Re: Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino

#156

Post by rdiddly » Fri, Jul 05, 2019, 7:53 PM UTC

Buttons840 wrote: post #136

mcguire wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The people in casinos are usually senior citizens carrying their oxygen tanks between slot machines.

And the slot machines are online ads incarnate.

I think of them as video games that are really simple, weird and boring.

Re: Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino

#157

Post by arisAlexis » Fri, Jul 05, 2019, 7:54 PM UTC

dwild wrote: post #131

arisAlexis wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Poker and sports betting have a huge difference. It is not 100% certain you will lose long term. Thus can be pleasurable to me. Certain loss simply can't be and that's why I am curious

> It is not 100% certain you will lose long term. Thus can be pleasurable to me. Is betting your job or an entertainment for you? If you see it as a job, a means to make money, I feel like that's unhealthy. When I go see a movie, even if the money is "lost", I still enjoy it. You go to the movie for the emotion it makes you feel, just like you bet for the emotion it makes you fell. It's the trill, the chance of seein…

the emotion you feel in the movie or buying any product is the product. The emotion you feel in Roulette is not because you find roulette spinning beautiful but because you think you can win money when you can't. I still don't understand

Re: Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino

#158

Post by emarsden » Fri, Jul 05, 2019, 8:25 PM UTC

sa-mao wrote: post #117

emarsden wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed! Here's a Python notebook illustrating both Monte Carlo and symbolic analysis of historical gambling problems (the Chevalier de Méré corresponding with Pascal, Pepys corresponding with Newton) https://risk-engineering.org/notebook/coins-dice.html

That's a nice course you got there. Thanks for sharing!

Thanks for reading!

Re: Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino

#159

Post by TazeTSchnitzel » Fri, Jul 05, 2019, 8:33 PM UTC

chkas wrote: post #68

TazeTSchnitzel wrote: post #36

The language they're using seems to pretty much be BASIC with slightly different syntax, it even lacks user-defined parameters for functions just like BASIC does.

There are user defined functions with parameters and locals.

Why have subroutines then?

Re: Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino

#160

Post by dwild » Fri, Jul 05, 2019, 9:06 PM UTC

arisAlexis wrote: post #157

dwild wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It is not 100% certain you will lose long term. Thus can be pleasurable to me. Is betting your job or an entertainment for you? If you see it as a job, a means to make money, I feel like that's unhealthy. When I go see a movie, even if the money is "lost", I still enjoy it. You go to the movie for the emotion it makes you feel, just like you bet for the emotion it makes you fell. It's the trill, the chance of seein…

the emotion you feel in the movie or buying any product is the product. The emotion you feel in Roulette is not because you find roulette spinning beautiful but because you think you can win money when you can't. I still don't understand

> The emotion you feel in Roulette is not because you find roulette spinning beautiful but because you think you can win money when you can't. I still don't understand

Sure that emotion is simulated, you won't actually win money. The same is true for the emotions you feel during a movie. The fear you may feel in a horror movie isn't real, you aren't in any danger.

In both case though the emotion is really there and that's what you pay for.

That's exactly why loot boxes are essentially gambling even though you get no monetary gains from it. It plays on the sames emotions, the same thrill.