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Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino

easylang.online

131–140 of 170 posts

Re: Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino

#131
post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Luck is lumpy. Weirdly I seem to do quite well in the casino and often have evening where I leave the casino 2-3X ahead of where I started. My luck at football betting is terrible, I'm even worse at horses. When you're up it's quite the thrill. You weather the downs as a cost associated with the particular vice. I enjoy "emotionally hedging" sports events - if I want X to win I bet on Y Do you play any other things (…

Poker and sports betting have a huge difference. It is not 100% certain you will lose long term. Thus can be pleasurable to me. Certain loss simply can't be and that's why I am curious

> It is not 100% certain you will lose long term. Thus can be pleasurable to me.

Is betting your job or an entertainment for you? If you see it as a job, a means to make money, I feel like that's unhealthy.

When I go see a movie, even if the money is "lost", I still enjoy it. You go to the movie for the emotion it makes you feel, just like you bet for the emotion it makes you fell. It's the trill, the chance of seeing big wins.

At the end of the day, casino can be actually quite cheap if you don't bet too high and there's free drinks too usually ;).

Re: Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino

#132
post #91
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You hit the nail on the head. If you simply play the pass-line and free-odds on craps, the house edge is extremely small. And yet, most people lose far more than predicted by the odds. The problem is exactly as you stated - people don't have a defined exit-strategy, and their implicit exit-strategy is to keep playing till they lose everything. Which is guaranteed to happen 100% of the time even if the house-edge was…

I rarely gamble, but when I do I like the following strategy: Start with X. Whenever you get above X, skim the surplus and store separately. You've now capped your losses at X (aka the price of the game night) and feel like you're winning when you can skim some money off your pool.

One of my undergraduate roommates was stationed at Nellis AFB for an extended time. He and his wife learned to count cards and played in the same manner as the MIT team.

They took only their winnings and used it to buy entertainment in the casinos where they gambled, which went a long way with the military discounts.

I want to say their original X was $500 or so, and it funded several years of local entertainment.

Re: Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino

#133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you explain what you feel playing a game that will always make you lose money no matter the strategies and anything else? Very curious

I've never been to a 'proper' casino, but I've seen a few in James Bond films. Everyone is attractive, powerful and sophisticated. People look on, impressed at his daring. Everyone has a bow tie on. Beautiful women hand him free drinks with a smile. The atmosphere isn't even slightly tinged with the desperation and regret of gambling addicts. I can understand losing $50 a day to live out that fiction. I have no idea…

The people in casinos are usually senior citizens carrying their oxygen tanks between slot machines.

Re: Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino

#134
post #69

A while ago I wrote a similar interactive article to prove that the martingale betting technique at the roulette doesn't work : [1]. The martingale is when you bet 1, double the bet each time you lose, start again at 1 when you win. The aim was to create a single page anybody could link to that proves without a doubt the abysmal odds of making money off the roulette with the martingale technique. Instead of pre-writt…

Theoretically I learned it works, but only if you have unlimited funds.

Doesn't even work with unlimited funds since casinos have table limits.

Re: Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino

#135
post #120
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You hit the nail on the head. If you simply play the pass-line and free-odds on craps, the house edge is extremely small. And yet, most people lose far more than predicted by the odds. The problem is exactly as you stated - people don't have a defined exit-strategy, and their implicit exit-strategy is to keep playing till they lose everything. Which is guaranteed to happen 100% of the time even if the house-edge was…

There's even been a study where (IIRC) they gave people $20 for free, and they could bet on coin tosses. There was no house edge and the rules were set up so that with a basic understanding of probability and bet sizing they'd be able to cash out free money. IIRC 33% went bust.

This isn't a surprise, nor is it evidence of individual greed or stupidity. What's wrong with betting when there is no house edge? In which case, some people are inevitably going to wrongly pick heads or tails and thus lose their $20.

Had the OP actually properly described how to build a useful Monte Carlo simulation, you could find your article, get the actual rules, run a simulation and check whether 33% was in line with expectations.

Re: Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino

#136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've never been to a 'proper' casino, but I've seen a few in James Bond films. Everyone is attractive, powerful and sophisticated. People look on, impressed at his daring. Everyone has a bow tie on. Beautiful women hand him free drinks with a smile. The atmosphere isn't even slightly tinged with the desperation and regret of gambling addicts. I can understand losing $50 a day to live out that fiction. I have no idea…

The people in casinos are usually senior citizens carrying their oxygen tanks between slot machines.

And the slot machines are online ads incarnate.

Re: Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino

#137
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

...and if the headline was "Learn to Program in easylang.online" it never would have sniffed the front page of HN

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19299760

another clickbaity headline, confirming my point

Re: Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino

#138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you explain what you feel playing a game that will always make you lose money no matter the strategies and anything else? Very curious

I've never been to a 'proper' casino, but I've seen a few in James Bond films. Everyone is attractive, powerful and sophisticated. People look on, impressed at his daring. Everyone has a bow tie on. Beautiful women hand him free drinks with a smile. The atmosphere isn't even slightly tinged with the desperation and regret of gambling addicts. I can understand losing $50 a day to live out that fiction. I have no idea…

Lol, at least the casinos I’ve been to in the US are nothing like this at all. Like basically the polar opposite.

Re: Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino

#139
post #11

It's more complicated (worse) than this. That the house has a small edge only tells a small part of the story. When people go to vegas for a weekend, they might have a number in their head they are willing to gamble. If they dont, then that number is their bank account balance. Then they start flipping coins, and often they keep doing this until they go bust. They rarely cash out when up but they always lose when the…

It's called martingale strategy. The same strategy is embedded into incentives in the wall street compensations.

The real cause of the financial crisis -- An MIT Blackjack Team perspective by Semyon Dukach http://semyondukach.blogspot.com/2009/01/real-cause-of-finan...

Re: Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino

#140
From personal experience: this is absolutely true. There is this csgo gambling scene on the internet. It's basically betting with real money but masked as a value of weapon skins. I have made some idiotic decisions in the past regarding these websites and I still regret it a ton. The problem really is that these websites also allow people of any age to gamble with their weapon skins (aka money), and it's fairly easy to buy new skins with actual money.

What's interesting though is that it's easy to observe a ton of gamblers for a long time. And since there is usually also a chat, interacting is also possible. These sites usually have 14 numbers for roulette where 1-7 is red and 8-14 is black, 0 is green which gives 14x your bet. Red and black give you 2x.

If you observe enough gamblers long enough (which I did), you see the same pattern over and over and over again. It goes like this: 1. Gambler starts out with a random amount of money (could be high or low). 2. Gambler wins big (usually like 1-3 times on green) 3. Gambler feels lucky and gives out money to 'passive' beggars* in the chat. ( Sometimes I would feel bad for the gamblers and hint them in the chat that they should cash out, no one ever listened ) 4. Gambler continues and might win some more, or lose some but not all. 5. Gambler has been betting for such a long time that he/she is back at where he/she started. ( Beggars keep begging but gambler says he is down so doesn't give out money right now ) 6. Gambler suddenly wins big on green again (or went all in) and feels like a king again. 7. Now Gambler cashes out (by buying a skin) the money with which they started and continues with what his/her leftovers. 8. Gambler loses the leftover money on the website. 9. Gambler deposits the skin that was previously withdrawn again. 10. Gambler loses everything now and the beggars focus on a different big gambler. 11. Gambler usually comes back within a week or month and loses more money. 12. The cycle continues.

* People, usually kids, that lost their (usually small amount of) money earlier and our now cheering for some big gamblers so these gamblers might send them money on the website.

I personally also lost a (for me) quite big amount of money on these sites over a decent period of time. Later, I was able to sort of stop my addiction and I made a bot which predicted random results (red/black/green) in the chat. It got me like 30 dollars of tips from people that had probably used the bot but the website changed some things so my bot stopped working and I have been too lazy to fix it.

Last thing: I also kept some stats of the roulette because I had to know the timing of the roulette so my bot wouldn't predict if it was already rolling. I added an extra feature for myself so I could see how many times red/black and green were rolled and how many times my bot got the predictions right. Obviously this always ended up in a big loss for my bot (in terms of predictions, I did not bet money with my bot) in the long term.

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