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Will Bitcoin Make a Good Investment?

beth.technology

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Re: Will Bitcoin Make a Good Investment?

#111

Post by sedeki »

pmiller2 wrote: post #102
sedeki wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was referring to government force. "Please respond to the strongest plausible interpretation of what someone says, not a weaker one that's easier to criticize. Assume good faith." https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

You said it had value. That’s literally what you wrote. The reason is irrelevant. Value is value. If you could think of a way to show BTC has value, I’d accept that as a selling point of BTC.

By that reasoning the Zimbabwe dollar had value, because it was ”””backed by the government””” according to your own definition!

Of course it did not!

Money or money supply should not be determined by government, it should be a result of market mechanisms!

Re: Will Bitcoin Make a Good Investment?

#112

Post by thtthings »

DougN7 wrote: post #106
thtthings wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every asset that produces an Income or has a possibility of producing income in the future is an investment. Everything else is speculation. Buying a commercial property and renting it out is an investment. Buying a house in the hope of selling it for more in the future is not investment. Same goes for Gold, Bitcoin, momentum trading in stocks in not investment. Buying a stock that does not pay dividend but is a real…

I like your definitions but it seems [buying] stock that pays no dividend (despite the business behind it) is still speculation. At best you can hope it will pay a dividend some day, which is speculation.

I think you are confusing risk with speculation. Every investment has risks associated with it. Even if a stock pays dividend does not mean it will keep paying it for perpetuity. Nothing is guaranteed.

Re: Will Bitcoin Make a Good Investment?

#113

Post by mopsi »

pmiller2 wrote: post #105
mopsi wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What you’re saying is that the car to gold ratio should be constant if your understanding is correct, right? No. I am aware that the value of gold fluctuates, but it is safer than many national currencies, stocks of failing companies or overvalued real-estate. The amount of gold in the world is known and stable and there's no way to massively "print" gold to crash its value. This stable supply is mimicked by algori…

Can you spot the effect of the Cyprus bailout on the value of the EUR in this chart? https://www.fx-exchange.com/currencyimages/2013/eur/the-year... What happened immediately after that?

If you sold a house for 300k the month before and then government confiscated a third of it, I doubt the value of EUR was of much consolation.

Had the 300k been held in cryptocurrencies, the government would've been powerless to seize a part of it.

Re: Will Bitcoin Make a Good Investment?

#114

Post by ziddoap »

pmiller2 wrote: post #107
ziddoap wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you want a literal list of things you can do with BTC? I feel like your trying to draw me into an argument I never made. I don't think BTC is going to replace USD, I never said it's going to replace USD. But you're in an alternate reality if you don't think people are doing anything with it. What do you think people are doing with BTC? Just buying it and putting it into cold storage forever? And again, your second…

Ok, what legitimate, legal use does BTC have where it has an actual advantage over USD, then? If there is none, then that’s what I mean by “BTC is useless.” My second question was getting at precisely the same point: that fiat currency is strictly superior to BTC. If you can’t provide a single legitimate use for it other than as a magical money machine, I would take that as evidence that it’s useless.

It's odd that if something doesn't have an advantage over something else that it's immediately useless. I also don't know where you think I said that BTC is superior? Something doesn't need to be superior to have a use.

Why do you keep moving the goalposts? First, it's completely useless. Now it might have a use, but if it's not superior it might as well be useless. Oh, and now it has to be legal (in the USA? Mexico? Russia?).

To indulge you, here's a transfer of 194k BTC for $0.00[1]. How much would your bank charge you for an international wire transfer of a few hundred million dollars or more?

[1]https://www.blockchain.com/btc/tx/1c12443203a48f42cdf7b1acee...

Re: Will Bitcoin Make a Good Investment?

#115

Post by icebraining »

pmiller2 wrote: post #77
icebraining wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's irrelevant to the question of whether it's an investment or not. Bad investments are still investments.

That’s correct. I was refuting the idea that BTC has any advantages over USD in this scenario.

Since nobody claimed it did, you're attacking a strawman.

Re: Will Bitcoin Make a Good Investment?

#116

Post by icebraining »

pmiller2 wrote: post #89
icebraining wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Not one word here about why BTC should be worth anything at all. There's no "should". Moral theories about the propriety of the value of currencies are not material. Bitcoin has value because people are willing to trade valuable stuff for it

“Should” is not a moral judgement. Substitute the word “logically,” if you want. What can you buy with BTC besides drugs and the occasional coffee at a Silicon Valley coffee shop? How does that compare to what you can buy with USD? Call me when you can buy a house with BTC reliably.

Are you saying nothing has value unless it can be directly and reliably used to buy houses?

If you're saying "BTC is less useful than some other currencies", then I don't disagree, but then you should have said that in the first place, rather than motte-and-baileying.

Re: Will Bitcoin Make a Good Investment?

#117

Post by pmiller2 »

ziddoap wrote: post #114
pmiller2 wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok, what legitimate, legal use does BTC have where it has an actual advantage over USD, then? If there is none, then that’s what I mean by “BTC is useless.” My second question was getting at precisely the same point: that fiat currency is strictly superior to BTC. If you can’t provide a single legitimate use for it other than as a magical money machine, I would take that as evidence that it’s useless.

It's odd that if something doesn't have an advantage over something else that it's immediately useless. I also don't know where you think I said that BTC is superior? Something doesn't need to be superior to have a use. Why do you keep moving the goalposts? First, it's completely useless. Now it might have a use, but if it's not superior it might as well be useless. Oh, and now it has to be legal (in the USA? Mexico?…

No, the goal posts are right where you last saw them; your field goal was just blocked.

I am saying that USD is strictly superior to BTC for all legitimate/legal use cases. If you want to hide assets or buy cocaine, BTC might be better, sure. But, otherwise it’s like comparing a 1980s computer to one from today. What use does a 35 year old PC have today other than as a museum piece?

You are, in fact, the one who’s being disingenuous here. That 194K BTC transfer is not free if you want to do anything with it. Coinbase would charge you 0.5% on both ends to convert it into fiat currency. You can directly transfer money for 1% already. No advantage.

As for “legal,” you know damn well what it means: can I be prosecuted successfully for what I’m about to do? If not, it’s legal.

Re: Will Bitcoin Make a Good Investment?

#118

Post by icebraining »

Toine wrote: post #30
Udik wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Gold has practical, useful applications. Yes. But they don't remotely justify its value, which has been established long before its technological applications.

They do, gold is rare and useful, supply and demand, that's all.

I agree, gold is a bad example. Emerald is better.

Re: Will Bitcoin Make a Good Investment?

#119

Post by pmiller2 »

icebraining wrote: post #115
pmiller2 wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s correct. I was refuting the idea that BTC has any advantages over USD in this scenario.

Since nobody claimed it did, you're attacking a strawman.

Pay attention, because you’ll miss it if you don’t up your game, apparently. “Hodler” doesn’t make money here. She loses. Losing $0 is superior to losing $X for any X > 0.

Re: Will Bitcoin Make a Good Investment?

#120

Post by icebraining »

Toine wrote: post #34
sedeki wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bitcoin is not modeled to be a currency (= stability in prices denominated in it), it is modeled to be a commodity (= gold).

Bitcoin is not a commodity. Commodities have a real word purpose. Gold has inherent value by its uses. That's why you pay a damn fortune to acquire it. What real world use has Bitcoin ? None.

Is Emerald a commodity?
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