Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry • Hacker News Board

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#111

Post by pjc50 » Fri, Jun 28, 2019, 2:23 PM UTC

adventured wrote: post #100

olefoo wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That is balanced by the strictly superior American rule of law The rule of law is looking pretty tattered and worn in the US of A right now. What with the President committing obstruction of justice in plain view and his AG declaring that a sitting President may not be indicted for any crime. Not to mention the grotesque violations of human rights that are happening at the network of concentration camps the current…

The US is not running a network of concentration camps. A hundred thousand illegal immigrants per month are being caught crossing into the US through the southern border. No other liberal democracy - from Canada to Finland to Japan to Australia - would tolerate such a flood of illegal immigration. Not even remotely close. Canada freaks out when a couple thousand illegal immigrants cross into its territory from the US…

The family separation policy is, however, purely punitive.

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#112

Post by pjc50 » Fri, Jun 28, 2019, 2:25 PM UTC

roenxi wrote: post #83

typon wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unbelievable how Americans can be so brainwashed about their country's status in the world yet believe that they're completely "free"

It is easy to complain generally, but is is better to be specific about what ways you think America is not free. Americans still enjoy great freedom of speech and association, for example. No Lèse-majesté in the land of the free. There is a lot of propaganda but that isn't necessarily inconsistent with freedom. The real issue is there is a risk that economically speaking America is less free than China. For all that…

Yesterday's "unfree America" story was the woman who was shot in the stomach and then prosecuted for the death of her unborn child. In Alabama.

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#113

Post by cinquemb » Fri, Jun 28, 2019, 2:25 PM UTC

benj111 wrote: post #98

cinquemb wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I would question why they haven't attracted investment in such a situation. I wouldn't say there isn't investment in new industries/tech upstream, but that it isn't in anything at a point that's driving consumer demand/profits. >To put it more directly, what do you know that people with billions to invest, and access the experts in the field don't? I'm interested in brain computer interfaces (worked/consulted in mul…

"its not hard to see how $10-100 billion or more of other peoples money mostly being burned" Creative destruction is both a weakness and a strength though. Yes you have billions being thrown at the wall and seeing what sticks, but some of it will stick, and based on past experience will more than offset what fell to the floor. The Hedge fund you mentioned, if you're right should be very successful, that will attract…

>Creative destruction is both a weakness and a strength though.

I agree with this statement.

>You seem to be complaining about essential features of capitalism, on one level you may be correct, just like observing that eating too much pizza will make you fat, but just like the fat, it's an inherent 'feature' that you can't really fix.

I may seem that way, but I think this situation does provide benefits for those who can exploit it in the short run. I don't think what we call capitalism as it exists today (on the national/international) level is an upper bound optimal level of resource allocation, just the local maxima/cleanest dirty shirt/etc.

>Much handwringing has been had complaining about the short termism of the markets, investing long term is good, yes ideally there should be a constant pipeline of new products, I don't think you can write off the industry that there isn't though.

I think it would be more fair to say that I'm writing off the industry now, there's alot of people/incentives in crowded positions that need to be wiped out before I'll be more interested.

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#114

Post by adinobro » Fri, Jun 28, 2019, 2:26 PM UTC

jjoonathan wrote: post #54

ThomPete wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But new IP is being created. Just because the other presidents didn't act in time, doesn't mean we should continue letting China dominate by basically operating as a mafia organization while still being defined as a developing nation. That's absolutely absurd.

China can make new IP too. Our big advantage was our head start and we blew it. I'd love to be wrong. As for letting China continue to reap the benefits of being defined as a developing nation, yes, that's absurd, and also needed to stop 10-20 years ago.

There are still almost 50,000,000 people in China that live on less than $2 a day. The GDP per capita is roughly 3x less than the US.

20 years ago there was close to 700,000,000 people living on less than $2 a day and there was no underground subway in all of China. Do you really think this was developed?

A few cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou & Shenzhen) are developed (~6% of the country) while the rest is still not very developed but improving.

Should it still be developing? Probably but not for much longer. How much is up for debate. Some say now. I expect it will happen sometime in the next 10 years.

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#115

Post by pm90 » Fri, Jun 28, 2019, 2:28 PM UTC

rhino369 wrote: post #73

pm90 wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> To me it speaks volumes how restrictive and hostile the Chinese market is to foreign companies, can you imagine having to do the same for each country? China is the most populated country on earth and an emerging superpower. They have every right to consider themselves exceptional, just the way the US considers itself exceptional. To posit another angle: most international nations are smaller markets than the US (i…

You are just rationalizing China’s purposeful one way trade barriers.

Explain to me how billions of dollars in subsidies for agriculture are not one way trade barriers.

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#116

Post by DiogenesKynikos » Fri, Jun 28, 2019, 2:28 PM UTC

ThomPete wrote: post #52

bryanlarsen wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"We allowed China access to our markets, they didnt return the gesture." I would argue that China opened access more than the US did. During the Mao era, it was basically impossible for US goods to enter the Chinese market. The converse was not true: Chinese goods could enter the US market. So during liberalization the Chinese opened up more than the US did simply because they had so much further to go.

Not sure what you mean. The situation defacto is that china and the chinese has free access to our markets while we don't have free access to theirs. The situation is that defacto china is benefitting from their developing nation status outcompeting western companies just on shipping prices. Very few US products enter the chinese market plus those who do are forced to give over their IP.

American companies have access to the Chinese market. If you go to any major Chinese city, that will be obvious to you pretty quickly. American brands are everywhere.

US companies do very well for themselves in the Chinese market. The reason for the trade imbalance is not Chinese protectionism, but rather structural issues in the United States and the Dollar's role as global reserve currency.

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#117

Post by danharaj » Fri, Jun 28, 2019, 2:29 PM UTC

adventured wrote: post #100

olefoo wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That is balanced by the strictly superior American rule of law The rule of law is looking pretty tattered and worn in the US of A right now. What with the President committing obstruction of justice in plain view and his AG declaring that a sitting President may not be indicted for any crime. Not to mention the grotesque violations of human rights that are happening at the network of concentration camps the current…

The US is not running a network of concentration camps. A hundred thousand illegal immigrants per month are being caught crossing into the US through the southern border. No other liberal democracy - from Canada to Finland to Japan to Australia - would tolerate such a flood of illegal immigration. Not even remotely close. Canada freaks out when a couple thousand illegal immigrants cross into its territory from the US…

Call a spade a spade. It's a concentration camp because it's a camp where undesirable people are concentrated. The fact that you think it's justified to employ concentration camps is a separate argument.

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#118

Post by alephr » Fri, Jun 28, 2019, 2:29 PM UTC

adventured wrote: post #100

olefoo wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That is balanced by the strictly superior American rule of law The rule of law is looking pretty tattered and worn in the US of A right now. What with the President committing obstruction of justice in plain view and his AG declaring that a sitting President may not be indicted for any crime. Not to mention the grotesque violations of human rights that are happening at the network of concentration camps the current…

The US is not running a network of concentration camps. A hundred thousand illegal immigrants per month are being caught crossing into the US through the southern border. No other liberal democracy - from Canada to Finland to Japan to Australia - would tolerate such a flood of illegal immigration. Not even remotely close. Canada freaks out when a couple thousand illegal immigrants cross into its territory from the US…

It would help your argument if you could cite that number and show that it's part of a significant trend.

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#119

Post by adinobro » Fri, Jun 28, 2019, 2:29 PM UTC

jjoonathan wrote: post #59

marcosdumay wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We allowed China access to our markets, they didnt return the gesture. How is that so? The US people brought all those products in exchange of what exactly?

Paying Oracle to use their database software makes Oracle stronger. Paying China to use their manufacturing makes China stronger. That's the meta-game. China strongly discouraged their citizens and companies from buying US products and making the US stronger, but the US encouraged their citizens to buy from China, making China stronger. This worked out well for China.

Only in the last 10+ years have large quantities of Chinese people started to earn enough to be able to buy US products.

In the past, virtually none of them had enough money to buy products made in the high end (The US generally makes high quality but expensive products)

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#120

Post by sigzero » Fri, Jun 28, 2019, 2:30 PM UTC

bluejekyll wrote: post #74

typon wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unbelievable how Americans can be so brainwashed about their country's status in the world yet believe that they're completely "free"

America did not elect this administration by a majority of the popular vote. The electoral college did. It’s an artifact of the original founding of the country where there were checks and balances put in place to deny direct democratic rule. It’s been slowly rolled back over many years, but until we get rid of the electoral college, it always has the possibility of ignoring the will of the people.

Getting rid of the Electoral College would destroy America. You would basically have two large areas control the whole process. Nope, no thank you. The only reason it failed last time is Hillary failed to understand it.