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Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry
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Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry
#42This is the thing that economists have been pointing out for decades: at the country scale, allowing free trade provides productivity benefits to both sides, and restricting it affects both sides. You can't have a trade war without domestic casualties. What's crazier is that the strategy of economically integrating China with the world was a Rebublican economic-liberal one to start with. The plan was to make the rest…
Well sure American and other companies have tried to gain market share in China, but China has effectively stifled a lot of foreign competitors from entering. So it's not very symmetric free trade with China, therefore giving some justification for this silly trade war. It's understandable though from China's perspective, that they aren't willing to give up important strategic sectors like social media or internet se…
> To me it speaks volumes how restrictive and hostile the Chinese market is to foreign companies, can you imagine having to do the same for each country?
China is the most populated country on earth and an emerging superpower. They have every right to consider themselves exceptional, just the way the US considers itself exceptional.
To posit another angle: most international nations are smaller markets than the US (individually) so it doesn't make sense to customize things for every nation, which would be a goddamn nightmare. But this is a country of over 1.3 Billion people. China would need to be an exception anyway, and AWS having a subsidiary in China doesn't illustrate the unfairness of China's practices as much as the reality of how important that market really is.
Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry
#43Earlier quoted context omitted.
"overeliance upon old IP", "lack of investment". What are you referring to here? The amount of capital required to develop new nodes means theres only 2 companies left actually competing at the cutting edge. And I would suspect the half life for chip IP is shorter than just about any other manufacturing industry.
I'm trying to find an interview someone from Horseman Global gave with Real Vision sometime in the past couple of months that went into the percentage of profits from semiconductor companies that came from lines released pre-2000 vs after (not sure on the exact dates) but it followed the 80-20 rule. And I don't think there is a lack of investment in general, just a lack of (successful) investment in companies that co…
"profits from semiconductor companies that came from lines released pre-2000 vs after"
If you look at industrial applications though. The machine you start designing today probably will use chips designed at least 5 years ago, if its another 5 years before your machine hits the market, that's 10 years before the end consumer even gets their hands on the product. Then you're going to be selling that machine for 10 years, and that machine is going to be running and getting maintained for what? 10 years minimum. But those pre 2000 aren't competitive from a performance pov. I had a Pentium 333 with 32mb of ram in 2000. That's basically microcontroller territory now, something equivalent should cost me pence to buy now, if I were doing it clean slate.
Regarding 'successful' investment. Perhaps? But then there's plenty of capital sloshing around at the moment, I would question why they haven't attracted investment in such a situation. To put it more directly, what do you know that people with billions to invest, and access the experts in the field don't?
Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry
#44This is the thing that economists have been pointing out for decades: at the country scale, allowing free trade provides productivity benefits to both sides, and restricting it affects both sides. You can't have a trade war without domestic casualties. What's crazier is that the strategy of economically integrating China with the world was a Rebublican economic-liberal one to start with. The plan was to make the rest…
What is free trade though? If you think about it, it’s a form of resource and labor transfer. From poor countries to wealthy ones without reverting to colonialism.
This is a simplistic statement, but it's an important question as to who benefits from the trade and whether it's really symmetrical. A lot of 90s and 00s anti-globalisation activists discussed this.
(The canonical example of exploitative "free" trade is the banana republics, sponsored by the US for the United Fruit Company)
Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry
#45Serious question - Has this trade war actually helped any U.S. industry?
Domestic steel and coal production, which is why Trump is uniquely popular in the rural areas surrounding Pittsburgh.
I am not so sure about that. These are graphs for steel production in the US:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/steel-production
Looking at 5 years or more there doesn't seem to be such big increase in steel production.
And coal is in decline:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/industrial-produc...
Also I read quite a few articles over the last year about closing down of coal mines, mainly in PA and WV.
Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry
#46Earlier quoted context omitted.
It seems to be already happening in genetics research.
Really? How? What? Where? I honestly have no idea in what case / field the Chinese groups are miles ahead of anybody else in terms of genetics research. And I'm doing a PhD in the subject. There are excellent groups in all countries, but in terms of superior tech on any side, I have not seen any. There are great companies that facilitate genetics research, but the best tech in that case still is American (Illumina, A…
> There are great companies that facilitate genetics research, but the best tech in that case still is American (Illumina, Affymetrix, 10X genomics).
Company IP is up for theft, one way or the other. I think, that is not going to be an edge for long - given the amount of Capital China has amassed.
Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry
#47[flagged]
The Blonde's administration and open support for barbaric regimes and murderers like Saudi prince, Erdogan etc. does much more evil in this world than what China did in last 10 years. Even if it would be equal, US can't have any moral high ground in today's world.
They could fix tons of problems if they really wanted. But in reality Russians had to enter fight with ISIS to actually make a change. Makes you wonder if US army is really that incompetent or politics took over as usually.
Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry
#48Earlier quoted context omitted.
There was not free trade before though. We allowed China access to our markets, they didnt return the gesture. So econmists are wrong. You can have a perfectly unfree market and still posper, all you have to do is to convince other other nations to ignore the obvious mafia like behavior. This is both a democrats and republican making. Trump is right about this war even if it will cost some, in the long run we are bet…
20 years ago that would have been absolutely 100% true. The damage may already have been done, however. The IP has already been given away, so China doesn't much need us, but so has the manufacturing, so we need them. I hope that's not the case, but... we'll see. I do remember how economists were lining up to shout their party line, that protectionism doesn't work and China was only hurting themselves. For some reaso…
But new IP is being created. Just because the other presidents didn't act in time, doesn't mean we should continue letting China dominate by basically operating as a mafia organization while still being defined as a developing nation.
That's absolutely absurd.
Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry
#49This is the thing that economists have been pointing out for decades: at the country scale, allowing free trade provides productivity benefits to both sides, and restricting it affects both sides. You can't have a trade war without domestic casualties. What's crazier is that the strategy of economically integrating China with the world was a Rebublican economic-liberal one to start with. The plan was to make the rest…
Labor markets for American companies. Then subcontractor markets for American companies.
Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry
#50[flagged]
Yea, Trump wouldn’t want to tarnish his name by buddying up to a human rights abuser like China. That would be like turning a blind eye to the abuses of Saudi Arabia, Russia, and North Korea. /s
Pretty confident Trump’s angle on China is economic, not humanitarian.