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Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

nytimes.com

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Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#71

Post by pinkfoot »

tomp wrote: post #65
dproblem wrote: post #41

[flagged]

I don't understand why dproblem 's reply is not just downvoted, but flagged... Literally Trump's doing nothing else that retaliating to China's own trade war that they've been waging for the past decade+... Except within a much more powerful and ruthless political system.

Do publish for us the litany of formal complaints that the USA has made to the WTO ­under the mechanisms allowed to them — to complain of China's trade practices.

Or are multi-lateral, independently arbitrated, institutions not your speed?

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#72

Post by liopleurodon »

wil421 wrote: post #20
pjc50 wrote: post #9

This is the thing that economists have been pointing out for decades: at the country scale, allowing free trade provides productivity benefits to both sides, and restricting it affects both sides. You can't have a trade war without domestic casualties. What's crazier is that the strategy of economically integrating China with the world was a Rebublican economic-liberal one to start with. The plan was to make the rest…

Don’t forget the Republican and Democratic parties kinda did a flip. I’m not sure if Nixon’s 1960s Republican party was the same as it is today. It was certainly starting to head the way it is today in the 1960s.

[flagged]

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#73

Post by rhino369 »

pm90 wrote: post #42
tekkk wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well sure American and other companies have tried to gain market share in China, but China has effectively stifled a lot of foreign competitors from entering. So it's not very symmetric free trade with China, therefore giving some justification for this silly trade war. It's understandable though from China's perspective, that they aren't willing to give up important strategic sectors like social media or internet se…

> To me it speaks volumes how restrictive and hostile the Chinese market is to foreign companies, can you imagine having to do the same for each country? China is the most populated country on earth and an emerging superpower. They have every right to consider themselves exceptional, just the way the US considers itself exceptional. To posit another angle: most international nations are smaller markets than the US (i…

You are just rationalizing China’s purposeful one way trade barriers.

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#74

Post by bluejekyll »

typon wrote: post #51
dproblem wrote: post #41

[flagged]

Unbelievable how Americans can be so brainwashed about their country's status in the world yet believe that they're completely "free"

America did not elect this administration by a majority of the popular vote. The electoral college did.

It’s an artifact of the original founding of the country where there were checks and balances put in place to deny direct democratic rule.

It’s been slowly rolled back over many years, but until we get rid of the electoral college, it always has the possibility of ignoring the will of the people.

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#75

Post by davemp »

pm90 wrote: post #42
tekkk wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well sure American and other companies have tried to gain market share in China, but China has effectively stifled a lot of foreign competitors from entering. So it's not very symmetric free trade with China, therefore giving some justification for this silly trade war. It's understandable though from China's perspective, that they aren't willing to give up important strategic sectors like social media or internet se…

> To me it speaks volumes how restrictive and hostile the Chinese market is to foreign companies, can you imagine having to do the same for each country? China is the most populated country on earth and an emerging superpower. They have every right to consider themselves exceptional, just the way the US considers itself exceptional. To posit another angle: most international nations are smaller markets than the US (i…

> China is the most populated country on earth and an emerging superpower. They have every right to consider themselves exceptional, just the way the US considers itself exceptional.

Being highly populated and powerful is not really an exception in history. The USA got (? gets) its sense of exceptionalism from their innovative form of government/constitution that provided more freedoms than any government in history. The roots are based in a sense morality.

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#76

Post by atomi »

hugi wrote: post #67
dractori wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China has over a million people in concentration camps right now https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_re-education_camps

And the US seems to really envy them, getting off to a slow start with just a few measly Mexican kids in their camps.

Indigenous Central Americans. Immigration from Mexico is near zero or negative.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/06/12/5-facts-abo...

Historically, the first people to colonize most of the western United States were Spanish, Mestizos and Mulattos coming up from Mexico not long after Hernán Cortés' conquest - i.e. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Los_Angeles_Pobladores

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#77

Post by cinquemb »

benj111 wrote: post #43
cinquemb wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm trying to find an interview someone from Horseman Global gave with Real Vision sometime in the past couple of months that went into the percentage of profits from semiconductor companies that came from lines released pre-2000 vs after (not sure on the exact dates) but it followed the 80-20 rule. And I don't think there is a lack of investment in general, just a lack of (successful) investment in companies that co…

"profits from semiconductor companies that came from lines released pre-2000 vs after" If you look at industrial applications though. The machine you start designing today probably will use chips designed at least 5 years ago, if its another 5 years before your machine hits the market, that's 10 years before the end consumer even gets their hands on the product. Then you're going to be selling that machine for 10 yea…

>I would question why they haven't attracted investment in such a situation.

I wouldn't say there isn't investment in new industries/tech upstream, but that it isn't in anything at a point that's driving consumer demand/profits.

>To put it more directly, what do you know that people with billions to invest, and access the experts in the field don't?

I'm interested in brain computer interfaces (worked/consulted in multiple research labs, published in journals, familiarity with all the politicking in between academia-industry/etc). I have hands on experience with medical imaging hardware/software and design of systems/sensors, and have seen a couple of great but really expensive systems/companies only target researchers, and many more trash systems/companies with even more funding that continued to get peddled to the public (and research labs sadly), and the only VC firm I've seen that even seems right up the ally with interest in something like this (some of the people behind it), nearly 15-20% of their portfolio companies are filled with corporate hiring startups (and another chuck companies with gov contracts for bread n butter [i.e. easily financed with 4-52 week notes]).

If one follows Robin Hanson's take on our economic system (prestige bias wrt to experts, and how it can go horribly wrong in certain cases outside of wanting to associate with such people), its not hard to see how $10-100 billion or more of other peoples money mostly being burned…

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#78

Post by seanmcdirmid »

wil421 wrote: post #20
pjc50 wrote: post #9

This is the thing that economists have been pointing out for decades: at the country scale, allowing free trade provides productivity benefits to both sides, and restricting it affects both sides. You can't have a trade war without domestic casualties. What's crazier is that the strategy of economically integrating China with the world was a Rebublican economic-liberal one to start with. The plan was to make the rest…

Don’t forget the Republican and Democratic parties kinda did a flip. I’m not sure if Nixon’s 1960s Republican party was the same as it is today. It was certainly starting to head the way it is today in the 1960s.

Republicans have always been economic liberals even during Lincoln. Northern Democrats developed a heavy base of labor activists (unions), so started tending a bit left. Southern Democrats simply existed as “anything but Republicans” (the party of a much hated Lincoln), so catered to southern white supremicists.

Johnson’s push of civil rights in the 60s simply destroyed the southern democrat wing of the party, who were welcomed into the Republican Party via Nixon’s southern strategy, and the pro-union Northern Democrats became the sole power source of the remaining Democrats.

Now with Trump and his rust belt base, Republicans are losing a bit of their economic liberalism (being more against free trade).

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#79

Post by notfromhere »

liopleurodon wrote: post #72
wil421 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don’t forget the Republican and Democratic parties kinda did a flip. I’m not sure if Nixon’s 1960s Republican party was the same as it is today. It was certainly starting to head the way it is today in the 1960s.

[flagged]

Someone should tell him that, because his administration has been hard-right GOP.

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#80

Post by BigChiefSmokem »

bluejekyll wrote: post #74
typon wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unbelievable how Americans can be so brainwashed about their country's status in the world yet believe that they're completely "free"

America did not elect this administration by a majority of the popular vote. The electoral college did. It’s an artifact of the original founding of the country where there were checks and balances put in place to deny direct democratic rule. It’s been slowly rolled back over many years, but until we get rid of the electoral college, it always has the possibility of ignoring the will of the people.

Theres a good reason why we shouldn’t use direct democracy and the Founders where very clear about that.
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