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$1B for 20,000 Bay Area homes

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Re: $1B for 20,000 Bay Area homes

#201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And there are already a lot of programmers who aren't in the bay area. That's fine. That there are cheaper options available that many take advantage of doesn't change the fact that LA is still the center of the movie world (at least for American movies), and SF/SV is the center of the software/internet world, with many choosing to locate in those places despite the higher absolute costs.

https://www.lamag.com/askchris/percentage-movies-filmed-in-l... Last year a scant 7 percent of the 100 top-grossing live-action movies were shot here,

There's much more to movies than just where they were physically shot. Guess where Warner Bros is HQ'd, Sony Pictures, Walt Disney Studios, Universal Studios, etc.

What you've linked to is the equivalent of arguing that the bay area and Seattle aren't that big for cloud computing because hey, there aren't that many big datacenters there.

Re: $1B for 20,000 Bay Area homes

#202
post #104

> The only solution is changing the zoning laws Or these companies can move. If you take successful STEM related businesses and move them to better area's the talent will follow. There is more than 1 answer to this problem, most people just want to change laws because its easier for them.

No way, no how is Google or any other decent employer going to uproot all their knowledge workers and make them unproductive for the foreseeable future by forcing them to move to another region. The diaspora from the Bay Area will keep happening the way it has been: at the economic margins. Over time, people outside of tech who aren’t subsidized by prop 13 or rent control will get priced out. There will be a perpetua…

You dont have to uproot, just stop hiring in CA, and start hiring at other newer locations. They already have offices all over the world.

Re: $1B for 20,000 Bay Area homes

#203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it's the argument from NIMBY's that keeps getting pushed aside It gets pushed aside because it's a bad argument, and it's often asked in bad faith. "Hubs" for various industries pop up all the time. Hollywood for movies, NYC for finance, etc. There are very real advantages to the strong ecosystems created by gathering so many specialists in a single area, both for companies AND for workers; working for Google makin…

I wouldn't call it a bad argument, as it's rooted in rational economics - which is also why it's unfair to call it "bad faith." The ecosystem of tech is partly built upon the idea of decentralization - as long as you can connect to the internet, you should be able to do what you need to do from anywhere. Otherwise tools like "video conferencing software" would tank quickly, as we might as well just fly to visit every…

> which is also why it's unfair to call it "bad faith."

It doesn't have to be bad faith, sure. It's just been my experience with the people putting the argument forth that they're making it in bad faith. Or maybe intellectually lazy is a better descriptor: they give the impression that it's a serious suggestion, but upon questioning it becomes clear that they haven't applied the least thought to it; it was just a reflexive "I don't want them here" masquerading as a policy proposal.

> as a homeowner, I would recognize that inelasticity and price my rent accordingly. There is no "bad faith" there - just rational economics, where one market understands that the other refuses to correct itself.

No idea what you're talking about here. Nobody's disputing that if demand is high and supply is low, it makes sense to charge high rent prices. At least, I'm certainly not arguing that.

> A "Google Salary" doesn't mean anything if you take home a small fraction of it, and what's left is eaten up by higher prices of the same goods; anywhere else, you can take home more, and those remaining $dollars can get you more.

Whether this is true depends on what those goods you want are. If you want to dump your money into international travel, seeing shows, buying cars and electronics, then high cost/salary places make more sense than low cost/salary places. If you want to own a big house with a lot of land, then the cheaper places are better.

> It's at the point now where I recommend to my employees / friends / colleagues that they shouldn't move to the valley unless they're getting 2.5x their salary, as that _might_ get you the same standard of living vs. our current spot.

It sounds like you're engaging in a common fallacy of assuming people value the same things you do, which is probably a big home, since otherwise needing 2.5x the salary wouldn't make any sense, as there are few other major goods that are impacted that hugely by cost of living (well, there's also childcare).

> It's not necessarily classist or anti-environment for homeowners in a community, who _own_ the land, to band together and dictate what should go on in that community: how it should look, what would be the best for their investment, etc.

It doesn't have to be, but it generally is, because the decisions they reach are generally anti-environment and classist.

What do you think it does when you mandate single family homes on big plots of land? Poorer people can't afford that, ergo they can't afford to live there, ergo poorer people are kept out of living in that neighborhood. And you're saying that economic segregation is not classist, because...?

Similarly, that style of zoning is also energy inefficient and results in people cutting into nature because you need more land per person. Pretty simple. But it's not anti-environment, because...? You haven't actually explained why.

> The easy response is: it only pushes those out to metros _who feel like they have to live there.

Who cares? I'm talking about the actual impact. The impact is encouraging suburban sprawl.

Re: $1B for 20,000 Bay Area homes

#204

It's great that Google wants to increase housing, but is this really going to work? The housing shortage in the Bay Area is not a money problem. If it were possible to build 20,000 houses in the next 20 years, it would absolutely happen without Google's help. The problem with housing there has one simple cause: NIMBYism. SF doesn't want to allow taller buildings and denser housing complexes. It's vastly worse in the…

Honest question - how much (if any) of those laws were made with respect to earthquakes? Perhaps they are from a time when resistant high rises weren't tenable.

While I don't have specific knowledge about earthquakes effecting zoning laws, there was a very real cultural resistance to building dense housing in the 60's and 70's, when the the term of art in the Bay Area was "Manhattanization," and which was almost certainly more of a factor than earthquake-proofing the buildings.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manhattanization

Re: $1B for 20,000 Bay Area homes

#205

I think this is good and should be encouraged. The Bay Area needs more housing desperately.

My only question, is will these houses have access to public transit or will they drive? If driving, can your roads handle the increased traffic? Housing, transit, schooling.. these all seem interconnected. Just increasing supply of one just strains the rest of the system, no?

One of the trick here is a significant portion of this development will be placed near Googleplex and they will only provide parking units enough for less than half of them. This incentivizes not having a car at all (yes, there's a number of young new grad without a car even now) and implicitly give more benefits to their employees and TVCs.

This is not necessarily a bad thing as a decent number of those high salary Google employees will not participate to the housing market thus reduce the upward pressure.

Re: $1B for 20,000 Bay Area homes

#206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Companies aren't going to move HQ's, because that's a terrible idea. The knowledge and skills loss would take years and years to recover from, substantially impeding productivity for a long time. It's economic suicide for a company like Google. What you're not bothering to grapple with is: why are these companies trying to expand headcount in areas that are somewhat hostile to them, and also much more expensive? Hell…

Having an HQ seems increasingly antiquated. Sure, there probably needs to be a designated executive center, but otherwise it seems far less risky to partition your organization into smaller units. Just look at what Amazon is doing with HQ2.

Even with Amazon, it was "HQ2", not "HQ50".

And big companies already do have lots of engineering offices, it's just still beneficial to have a big main hub, there are costs to fragmentation.

Re: $1B for 20,000 Bay Area homes

#207
post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The difference housing cost as a percentage of the small tech city salary is an irrelevant statistic. The relevant statistic to compare is actual housing cost vs actual compensation in both types of places. For many types of tech jobs, the number still favors big cities, if not in percentage terms, then in absolute numbers. And when it comes down to a real life decision, there are plenty of other factors (financial o…

My point was "only $12,000" sounds very ivory tower and tone-deaf to people for which $12,000 is an awful lot of money .

I didn't mean it like that - I meant that if you're making $100k in a suburb somewhere in a flyover state, you would probably make $140k (for instance) in a place with a higher rent but it woul;dn't really matter to your bottom line

Re: $1B for 20,000 Bay Area homes

#208

Here is a buisnes idea Ive been thinking about lately for SF, Hong Kong, NY and other expensive places. Buy a smaller cruise ships and rent a pier to dock it. I found a newly renovated ship with 72 cabins for 5.8 million. With the average rent in SF that ship has paid for itself in 2 years (yes there will be additional costs, but back of a napkin, its a good start). Then buy more ships and stack them. Renovate/remode…

aka Seasteading https://www.seasteading.org/

Re: $1B for 20,000 Bay Area homes

#209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No way, no how is Google or any other decent employer going to uproot all their knowledge workers and make them unproductive for the foreseeable future by forcing them to move to another region. The diaspora from the Bay Area will keep happening the way it has been: at the economic margins. Over time, people outside of tech who aren’t subsidized by prop 13 or rent control will get priced out. There will be a perpetua…

Google doesn't need to move. They just need to expand elsewhere. Amazon is opening HQ2 because Seattle is "full", and there are lots of smart people elsewhere that they could employ. All the FAANGs should spread out more.

Very NIMBY of you. They just have to be not in my back yard and go away somewhere else. "No more immigrants in mountain view!"

As far as expand elsewhere goes, google has many staff in many countries and cities all over the world.

Re: $1B for 20,000 Bay Area homes

#210
post #136
post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It also affords living an area with substantially better quality of life in many areas: diversity and opportunity (career, entrepreneurial, academic) being two important ones. Most places with an acre of land as you describe are rural and in areas with poor services, education, and other quality of life concerns.

That very much depends on the area. E.g. Chicago suburbs may not be quite as cheap as "get an acre of land" but you can absolutely have significantly better access to cultural, educational, academic, etc. opportunities than anywhere around SF for significantly less money. Pretty good career-wise, too, and the difference in salaries is less than the difference in cost of living.

Chicago might be on par with the Bay Area in terms of culture, or even marginally better in some ways. In just about any other measure, especially education, job opportunities and salary adjusted for CoL, Chicago compares poorly.
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