Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Why are we so pessimistic?

brookings.edu

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

41–50 of 150 posts

Re: Why are we so pessimistic?

#41

Post by fuzz4lyfe »

koube wrote: post #27
thrower123 wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Russian propaganda canard is worrying, because it is this thought-terminator that prevents considering that there are actual people with real reasons for voting the way that they do. Are the Russian spy agencies conducting propaganda? Of course they are. Are they the reason Trump was elected, or people voted for Brexit, or the Yellow Vests are marching in Paris? Hell no.

With how close the election was, it's a very short jump to conclude that hacking the emails of both the party and campaign of one side successfully directed the narrative enough to flip the election. You can easily see here that Russian cyberattacks were effective in washing out any message by the target candidate: https://news.gallup.com/poll/195596/email-dominates-american...

The key to the Clinton email server is that the purpose of it was to avoid FOIA requests. Any hacking in regards to it is closer to the law than the alternative.

Re: Why are we so pessimistic?

#42

Post by hashberry »

> Third, this “negativity bias” is further amplified in the era of social media. In the past, traditional authorities and intermediate bodies—churches, political parties, trade unions, sports clubs—neutralized extreme positions.

Blaming social media is trendy these days, but this is a poor argument when one reflects on history. "Traditional authorities" often encouraged extreme positions for its citizens, such as the governments of Germany, Italy, and Japan during World War II. (Hitler Youth was a very popular "club!") And doomsday cults have been around forever. (Many are still waiting for The Rapture!)

I'm actually rather optimistic about social media. Proper use of social media makes it easier to understand viewpoints of the opposing side and find and share new information. It seems there is a pessimistic "negativity bias" around social media itself because it's easy to point out extreme examples and users.

Re: Why are we so pessimistic?

#43

Post by Bakary »

narnianal wrote: post #11

Hoped for a scientific study, got philosophical bla bla. Yes, there are people, probably the author as well, who are resilient to actually seeing facts. Just as the joke about fat people and zombie apocalypses go: Be nice to them, they will save your life one day (by being crushed before you, thereby giving you a little more time to react). Still I'm a little sad about the lost opportunity. It's also true that people…

Ultimately even the people who supposedly "see reality" are just seeing a subjective mental model of it.

Re: Why are we so pessimistic?

#44

Post by redsymbol »

Years ago, I was part of a a guided tour at the San Francisco modern art museum. And they had this wooden sculpture of Popeye (old cartoon character, you can look him up - kind of a tough/strong but lovable sailor guy). It looked old, bedraggled and beat-up looking; I think it was assembled from found driftwood or something.

But when I looked at the sculpture, I saw strength. Good-natured defiance and tenacity. That even though it looked like bits of wood were about to fall off, the figure stood with fists up, straight posture, ready to fight. Appearing calm in the face of whatever challenge lay ahead.

As I thought all this to myself, the tour guide asked each of us (about a dozen in the tour group) what emotions we felt looking at it...

And I was shocked. One by one, everyone said how it reflected the worsening state of the world, the fall of the USA, the hopelessness of life...

Which was the exact opposite of what I saw. I saw a spirit of overcoming. That regardless of circumstances, even though one's body (or whatever the body is a metaphor for) is beat up and falling apart, you don't let it drag you into darkness. You stand up straight, you fight with all you've got, and never give up.

Inner strength, resilience, and an unquenchable spirit. Only giving attention to that which leads in the most positive direction availble in that moment.

I told everyone this when it was my turn, and nobody (including the tour guide) seemed to know how to respond. We just kept going on the tour.

I'm not sure what the lesson is here...

But that was about a decade ago. And in the time that's passed, I've created a immense amount of freedom, success and happiness for myself and my family.

And I think a huge factor in me creating that has been my ability to see the good in people and situations, even when no one else seems to... to hold my focus of attention on that, regardless of what others are talking about... and persistently act on the opportunities it lets me perceive. Doggedly keeping this mindset, even when it seems no one else around me does.

Re: Why are we so pessimistic?

#45

Post by DrJones1098 »

thrower123 wrote: post #22
edraferi wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s exactly the problem though. Post-Soviet states money-bombing our politics out from underneath us. We know where that leads and don’t want it at all. Unfortunately they’re good at it so it’s taking time to vote our way out of the mess.

The Russian propaganda canard is worrying, because it is this thought-terminator that prevents considering that there are actual people with real reasons for voting the way that they do. Are the Russian spy agencies conducting propaganda? Of course they are. Are they the reason Trump was elected, or people voted for Brexit, or the Yellow Vests are marching in Paris? Hell no.

I personally think propaganda works on people so I disagree with your statement that propaganda wasn't the reason Trump was elected. One example...Ads.. are non-political propaganda for companies and are billion dollar industry....for example Nike shoes are made in China and sold at insane markups...simply because of advertising/propaganda/branding. People are easily influenced in my opinion.

Re: Why are we so pessimistic?

#46

Post by GavinMcG »

sonnyblarney wrote: post #37
DisruptiveDave wrote: post #35

I have another point of view here - there's power in overcoming adversity. Nearly every movie produced tells you that. But your average American doesn't face real adversity anymore. We are extremely comfortable. Extremely safe. But there's something inside us that needs this adversity, it needs to triumph, to overcome challenges. This is why we run marathons, punish ourselves in the gym, climb mountains. Some of us,…

I agree for many of us ... but I think 'life is not easy' for the bottom 50%. Most people sling coffee, serve food, work in factories, panic around in delivery vehicles all day, and with one wrongs step or bad health outcome they could be in doom. Lack of job stability, longer retirement, lack of community ... these things take their tole. Kind of a permanent existential anxiety. Just 'keeping on doing', facing the d…

Okay, tweak it to say overcoming meaningful adversity, that satisfies our need for narrative/place/existential order.

Re: Why are we so pessimistic?

#47

Post by Bakary »

woodandsteel wrote: post #15

Part of the reason for pessimism is that the enormous progress of recent centuries is due to a set of liberal political philosophical ideas that are being rejected by an increasing number of nations. That implies that if the present political trends continue, then as some point in the coming decades progress for the world as a whole will reverse.

"It only takes 20 years for a liberal to become a conservative without changing a single idea." - Robert Anton Wilson

The idea of there being an right and wrong direction to history is flawed at best.

The current rejection of liberal values didn't come out of nowhere either. Some people are unhappy and feel the system has failed them. This was the same reason that pushed liberal ideas to the forefront in the first place.

Re: Why are we so pessimistic?

#48

Post by malvosenior »

DrJones1098 wrote: post #45
thrower123 wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Russian propaganda canard is worrying, because it is this thought-terminator that prevents considering that there are actual people with real reasons for voting the way that they do. Are the Russian spy agencies conducting propaganda? Of course they are. Are they the reason Trump was elected, or people voted for Brexit, or the Yellow Vests are marching in Paris? Hell no.

I personally think propaganda works on people so I disagree with your statement that propaganda wasn't the reason Trump was elected. One example...Ads.. are non-political propaganda for companies and are billion dollar industry....for example Nike shoes are made in China and sold at insane markups...simply because of advertising/propaganda/branding. People are easily influenced in my opinion.

Clinton raised and spent roughly 1.5X as much money as Trump. She also had near universal support from actors, sports figures, the media (aka the people Nike pays that money to). It didn’t win her the election. Some crappy banner ads on Facebook don’t even register against that.

Re: Why are we so pessimistic?

#49

Post by sanderjd »

fuzz4lyfe wrote: post #41
koube wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With how close the election was, it's a very short jump to conclude that hacking the emails of both the party and campaign of one side successfully directed the narrative enough to flip the election. You can easily see here that Russian cyberattacks were effective in washing out any message by the target candidate: https://news.gallup.com/poll/195596/email-dominates-american...

The key to the Clinton email server is that the purpose of it was to avoid FOIA requests. Any hacking in regards to it is closer to the law than the alternative.

The hacking thing wasn't related to Clinton's emails, it was the DNC's emails, which are not subject to FOIA. That these things are conflated in many peoples' minds is ... kinda the point.

Re: Why are we so pessimistic?

#50

Post by DisruptiveDave »

sonnyblarney wrote: post #37
DisruptiveDave wrote: post #35

I have another point of view here - there's power in overcoming adversity. Nearly every movie produced tells you that. But your average American doesn't face real adversity anymore. We are extremely comfortable. Extremely safe. But there's something inside us that needs this adversity, it needs to triumph, to overcome challenges. This is why we run marathons, punish ourselves in the gym, climb mountains. Some of us,…

I agree for many of us ... but I think 'life is not easy' for the bottom 50%. Most people sling coffee, serve food, work in factories, panic around in delivery vehicles all day, and with one wrongs step or bad health outcome they could be in doom. Lack of job stability, longer retirement, lack of community ... these things take their tole. Kind of a permanent existential anxiety. Just 'keeping on doing', facing the d…

This point also confirms my relativity of perception thoughts. Yes, compared to me, the bottom 50% certainly has more adversity. But why stop there? The bottom 50% in America is likely the top 20% somewhere else (I'm making all of this up, of course). Then the bottom 50% of that 20% is likely the top 1% somewhere else. And on and on it goes.

I don't believe that thinking about nameless, faceless people thousands and thousands of miles away is particularly effective at altering daily behavior and mindset here, but it's important to recognize nonetheless.

Post reply on HN