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The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

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Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#131

Post by epicureanideal »

rotskoff wrote: post #109
jmpman wrote: post #9

H1B compete with the newly graduated college students. Before people say that there’s no problem with STEM graduates finding a job, I’ll counter that many of my coworkers 20 years ago didn’t have STEM degrees, and were previously English majors, business majors, etc. They were people with technical aptitude who realized they had picked a field of study that didn’t quite suit their financial aspirations. They were abl…

It's probably worthwhile to think about scale in this context: There are only 85000 H-1B visas issued each year by the US; 20k of those are reserved for people with advanced degrees [1]. Given that there are an estimated 3.87 million software developers working in the USA [2], this seems unlikely to be the root cause of the inability of some graduates to find entry level software jobs. 1. https://www.uscis.gov/workin…

But how long are those visas good for? If it's multiple years, then we really need to count how many active H1Bs there are, not the number issued yearly.

I just Googled and found this article: https://qz.com/949589/the-h-1b-visa-cap-tells-you-very-littl...

... which indicates that about 500,000 H1B visas are currently valid. If those were to all go to tech workers, that would be about 1/7 of all software developers, which is definitely enough to move the needle on compensation, access to entry level jobs, and so on.

Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#132

Post by CydeWeys »

fibers wrote: post #90
lemcoe9 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can absolutely confirm this. I have done work (not on this particular type of system, however) for many small-to-medium car dealerships, and they will spend roughly $400 to equip many of the vehicles in their inventory with ignition interlocks that can be disabled remotely. Here is their business cycle: 1. Purchase a used car from a customer for 80% of "fair market value." 2. Sell the car on a $0-down, 7-year note…

Is it possible to disable these systems, or is something baked into the car where if you disable it the car won't run? This seems very suspicious unless the auto dealer/contractor is expecting most people to not even bother with the gps system.

That doesn't prevent the car from being repossessed though, just makes it a bit harder. Automated license plate scanners are increasingly becoming a thing too (and they're feeding into collaborative sightings databases), so it's easier and easier to locate and thus repossess a vehicle.

Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#133

Post by davidw »

AimForTheBushes wrote: post #127
davidw wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd look at our own problems rather than trying to blame immigrants, who have always been part and parcel of the US economy. Indeed, many of those companies wouldn't be around were it not for immigrants, since they not only work for companies, but also found them and of course purchase their products and services.

H1Bs are not meant for immigration. Their purpose is to fulfill a void in the highly educated work force by employing a temporary, foreign worker. I think his point has some validity since H1Bs can replace local workers with lower paying H1B substitutes. Yes, this isn't allowed but it happens all the time.

It's crucial to keep in mind that this is not a zero sum game.

There is not a fixed lump of labor to be divided up.

Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#134

Post by CydeWeys »

dsfyu404ed wrote: post #78
chrisco255 wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gas mileage is better, backup cams are standard (and required), the average age of a vehicle on the road is 11 years (up from 8 years in the 90s), so they are more reliable and last longer, better airbags (side curtains are standard nowadays), better anti-corrosion technology, adaptive cruise control, lane assist, auto parallel parking, partial autopilot, bluetooth standard, etc.

So marginal incremental improvement in drive-train technology and electronic doodads? That's how I read that list you gave me. Cars these days don't age any better than cars from 20yr ago or the more modern cars of the 90s. I guess anti-corrosion has improved but it hasn't improved by that much. You still have plenty of vehicles that repeatedly rust out in some spot because the salt gets flung there and the surface c…

There's a lot of very real safety improvements that have been added (or mandated) over the past decade. They are saving lives. It doesn't matter if you don't value these improvements for whatever reason; the rest of us will still benefit from your vehicle having them, so they are now required.

Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#135

Post by war1025 »

jrobn wrote: post #126
war1025 wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Living in the Midwest on a Midwest salary ($85k/yr), currently 30 years old, have 3 kids, a stay at home wife, and a net worth that just peeked over $250k. Also, our work health insurance is shit, so $200 gets taken out of my paycheck each week for that, which puts it right around the $12k you mentioned. Daycare is stupid expensive. Healthcare is stupid expensive. We handle the former by having my wife stay home. The…

So you are saying if you have a non-fatal health incident then you are in serious financial trouble? My wife and I are in the same position. We pay $209 a month for “healthcare” coverage that has a $700 yearly deductible. If either of us got sick or injuries we would be totally screwed. The US system is broken. We have massive wealth inequality, an educational system in crisis, and a toxic political system.

I assume by $700 you mean $7000? Also wondering if your $209 / month figure was accurate. What your comment currently describes is 1/4 the premium and 1/10th the deductible that my family has.

I agree that healthcare in the US is completely broken. It is in fact one of my favorite things to gripe about to anyone who will listen or who happens to be in my vicinity at the wrong moment.

I think our current "out of pocket max" is somewhere around $6k/year. The bill for having twins blew through that pretty well. When we had our first child, our deductible was roughly twice as much and I think we maybe just scratched the out of pocket max. Those insurance premiums were only a third of what we pay now though, which was a better trade off in my opinion.

Would we be financially ruined by running into something like that again? No. Would we be majorly inconvenienced? Yes.

Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#136

Post by AimForTheBushes »

davidw wrote: post #133
AimForTheBushes wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

H1Bs are not meant for immigration. Their purpose is to fulfill a void in the highly educated work force by employing a temporary, foreign worker. I think his point has some validity since H1Bs can replace local workers with lower paying H1B substitutes. Yes, this isn't allowed but it happens all the time.

It's crucial to keep in mind that this is not a zero sum game. There is not a fixed lump of labor to be divided up.

I don't agree that it's a major problem to underemployment- especially not the massive underemployment referenced in the article. But I still think it's a problem that should be corrected.

Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#137

Post by jopsen »

epicureanideal wrote: post #131
rotskoff wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's probably worthwhile to think about scale in this context: There are only 85000 H-1B visas issued each year by the US; 20k of those are reserved for people with advanced degrees [1]. Given that there are an estimated 3.87 million software developers working in the USA [2], this seems unlikely to be the root cause of the inability of some graduates to find entry level software jobs. 1. https://www.uscis.gov/workin…

But how long are those visas good for? If it's multiple years, then we really need to count how many active H1Bs there are, not the number issued yearly. I just Googled and found this article: https://qz.com/949589/the-h-1b-visa-cap-tells-you-very-littl... ... which indicates that about 500,000 H1B visas are currently valid. If those were to all go to tech workers, that would be about 1/7 of all software developers,…

You assume everyone is maxing it out.

My H1B extension still has ~2 years left on it, but I moved back last year..

But, sure -- it's not nothing. But go look at the stats.

Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#138

Post by jseliger »

ineedasername wrote: post #64

I'm not sure the author's suggestion that potential students be diverted to trades/coding bootcampts etc., will solve too much, and instead may simply shift the problem into those trade industries as well. Somewhere in the ballpark of 2,000,000 students earn a bachelors degree each year. Let's say 25% of students should be diverted into trade schools instead. That will mean an additional 500,000 student per year ente…

There are two books that cover this subject well: The Case Against Education: https://jakeseliger.com/2018/03/12/the-case-against-educatio..., which argues that most "education" is really signaling, not human capital acquisition, and Paying for the Party: https://jakeseliger.com/2014/04/27/paying-for-the-party-eliz..., which argues that many schools have evolved some substantive majors and some non-substantive majors. If we can move people from non-substantive majors into trades and the like, that will likely be a win for just about everyone.

I also don't think we're going to see a cure-all, but it's hard for almost any intellectually honest person in the non-elite parts of the higher-education industry to look at what's going on and think it's great.

I think we're simply approaching a point in economic history where fewer workers are needed to produce more value/gpd/products/whatever

Then we'd see soaring productivity, which we don't see: https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1140259227908411392

Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#139

Post by war1025 »

StanislavPetrov wrote: post #129
war1025 wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you consider middle class? That term is notoriously ill-defined.

Being able to support yourself and a family with a (single) full time job. That includes owning a home, a car, being able to afford to see a doctor when you have to, going to the occasional movie and taking a vacation once in a while. It includes being able to do all these things without being one illness or one unexpected expense away from being homeless or destitute. It includes the prospect of being able to be abl…

That all seems pretty true. People have spent that past decade telling me that I'm going to be less well off than my parents, though. So I guess my opinion is that it's best to just accept it and adjust your lifestyle accordingly. We still live like kings compared to most of human history.

Also, the social safety net in the US isn't great, but it definitely exists. You can be a pretty big screw up and still have a roof over your head. You just won't have much else.

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