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The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

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Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the last twenty years, new vehicle prices have doubled. My eyes just about roll out of my head when I see what the sticker price is for a new truck or minivan. I assume people must be leasing more than they used to, because I can't see any other way to get the payment down into a palatable $500/month range.

Buying new is basically a fools game now. Take note of vehicles with proven longevity and snatch them up when the depreciation makes them affordable.

The market is rather efficient in these vehicles, so depreciation isn't a way to save money. Dealers beg 3-yr-old car owners to sell their cars back so they can flip them. Like real estate, cars are cheap to buy. The expense comes when you sell them, losingthe residual becase you won't get a good price. The most important factor in auto afforidability is how long you own the car, not how good a deal you get at purchase time. And buying a "reliable" used car is a risk, because you don't know what damage this particular used car has suffered. Unless you have good intel on why the previous owner gave it up, and how they treated it, you're taking a gamble.

Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#112
post #9

H1B compete with the newly graduated college students. Before people say that there’s no problem with STEM graduates finding a job, I’ll counter that many of my coworkers 20 years ago didn’t have STEM degrees, and were previously English majors, business majors, etc. They were people with technical aptitude who realized they had picked a field of study that didn’t quite suit their financial aspirations. They were abl…

It's probably worthwhile to think about scale in this context: There are only 85000 H-1B visas issued each year by the US; 20k of those are reserved for people with advanced degrees [1]. Given that there are an estimated 3.87 million software developers working in the USA [2], this seems unlikely to be the root cause of the inability of some graduates to find entry level software jobs. 1. https://www.uscis.gov/workin…

How is it possible that 2.5% of the workforce is a programmer? One out of every 40 people?

Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#113

A little bit unrelated question: why are HE revolving loans so cheap, having negative CAGR? Some piece of economics i totally fail to understand.

They are guaranteed by taxpayers. >Lots of student loans are also owned by pseudo government agencies or private companies with beneficial relationships with the Department of Education, such as NelNet Inc. (NYSE: NNI) and Sallie Mae (NYSE: SLM). Sallie Mae holds a lot of the loans made under the Federal Family Education Loan Program (FFELP), which was replaced by the federal government. https://www.investopedia.com/…

Exactly. To the tune of $120 Billion per year. That's a lot of people being artificially willing and able to pay higher and higher tuitions. The federal taxpayer guarantee on these loans is one of the strongest forces behind the dramatic rise in tuitions - if people can pay and pick the pricier institution, then universities will happily charge and spend more.

https://www2.ed.gov/about/reports/annual/2017report/fsa-repo...

Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

20 years ago was a special time. Anyone who could spell HTML could get a job. Things are different now and the bar is a bit higher. Today’s equivalent of the English and business majors are boot camp grads.

The bar is higher because there's free (or near free) specialized education overseas and not domestically. Why pay to train entry level employers when the tax payers of X country will do it for you for free? Take away the subsidized labor pool and watch that bar fall back to the floor.

> there's free (or near free) specialized education overseas and not domestically.

There's free specialized education available on the internet for anyone who is an autodidact.

Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#115
post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's probably worthwhile to think about scale in this context: There are only 85000 H-1B visas issued each year by the US; 20k of those are reserved for people with advanced degrees [1]. Given that there are an estimated 3.87 million software developers working in the USA [2], this seems unlikely to be the root cause of the inability of some graduates to find entry level software jobs. 1. https://www.uscis.gov/workin…

How is it possible that 2.5% of the workforce is a programmer? One out of every 40 people?

It's a good question: you can see a fairly granular breakdown of the workforce by industry [here](https://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat11b.htm). There are about 5.1 million people working in "Computer and mathematical occupations", the majority of whom are developers.

Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#116
post #9

H1B compete with the newly graduated college students. Before people say that there’s no problem with STEM graduates finding a job, I’ll counter that many of my coworkers 20 years ago didn’t have STEM degrees, and were previously English majors, business majors, etc. They were people with technical aptitude who realized they had picked a field of study that didn’t quite suit their financial aspirations. They were abl…

I'd look at our own problems rather than trying to blame immigrants, who have always been part and parcel of the US economy.

Indeed, many of those companies wouldn't be around were it not for immigrants, since they not only work for companies, but also found them and of course purchase their products and services.

Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why can't a 28 American with an English major do a coding bootcamp and find an entry level job? I'm sure if he's reasonable intelligent and ambitious he can. There aren't that many h1b's around competing with him, most American jobs aren't h1b jobs.

Not many entry level jobs. Everyone is hiring experienced candidates because that's what H1B's are, experienced. Would you rather hire an entry-level domestic worker for the same salary as an experienced foreign worker?

Not necessarily - they just need to have a degree.

Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#118
post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why should the principle not be discharged? Why is lending a virtually risk free position (which induces a massive moral hazard)

It’s non-dischargeable so that it can be offered to people with no collateral and who are otherwise entirely un-creditworthy. Not surprisingly, this results in high delinquency rates! The alternative is most people wouldn’t qualify for this level of debt, you would more highly subsidize cheaper public education, and private universities would have to rely entirely on endowments to provide financial aid to people who…

> if you were to limit the amount of educational debt someone could take on — for example by only making the first $20k non-dischargeable. It would fix the delinquency problem, drastically lower the total annual student loan rate, and cause private tuition prices overall to decline, but it would be called institutional racism.

The solution to structural racism is more scholarship money, not more debt. Pell and Social Security supplement grants have gotten really meager since when I went to school.

> I think we already went through this cycle with housing, when ~15 years ago politicians started saying that owning a home was a right and everyone should own one, regardless of ability to pay.

Ahh yes, this old card. Blame the poors for financial crisis. Buddy most of the defaults weren't from poor people buying homes. People with good credit scores leveraged that score to speculate, over 85% of the defaults were for investment properties. Most of the mortgage defaults were done by your doctors, lawyers, realtors, general contractors, and business owners who watched one too many episodes of home flipping shows and thought they could get in on a good deal.

Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep. That. Every time I read something about the cost of having kids I'm looking for some idea of where these people live. The single largest expense for kids is day care and that's only necessary if you have 2 working parents...and if one of those parents income doesn't more than justify the cost of daycare it's usually a better idea to have a stay at home. People seriously take for granted the financial value that…

Current income justifying day care is a short term and fallacious comparison. You need to look at long term potential. Leaving the labor force does more than just set you back the years you were gone.

You do of course...but you also have to determine long term cost potential of all of the other expenses and savings besides day care.

It compounds in both directions and gets amplified by the continued lack of time due to balancing home and work commitments. Usually it takes a couple of years of exhaustion before people come face to face with the realization that things would be much easier of one person was a stay at home.

The formula is trickiest in the middle. At the higher end, a lot of couples will hire a nanny that can provide many of the same benefits as a stay at home. At the lower end, the decision is fairly easy.

It's in the middle where it's toughest to come to grips with it.

Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#120
post #9

H1B compete with the newly graduated college students. Before people say that there’s no problem with STEM graduates finding a job, I’ll counter that many of my coworkers 20 years ago didn’t have STEM degrees, and were previously English majors, business majors, etc. They were people with technical aptitude who realized they had picked a field of study that didn’t quite suit their financial aspirations. They were abl…

Plenty of H1B holders create jobs as well. The economy isn't a pie of fixed size with everyone fighting over a limited number of slices.

Overall, immigration has been a net boon to the US's economy, including the creation of many jobs.

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