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Why Hong Kong Is Still Marching

nytimes.com

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Re: Why Hong Kong Is Still Marching

#191

Post by echaozh »

ajit01 wrote: post #162
weggooi wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been to mainland China recently, both rural and the fast changing cities like Shenzhen. Chairman Mao is universally revered. No one ever questions his track record on economic growth was, even though the evidence is everywhere to see. Similarly, censorship is rarely questioned.

In my experience I found that people from rural areas and far flung provinces were far more critical of the government than people from metropolitan areas such Beijing , Shanghai etc. Even liberal, by Western standards. Might just be a sampling error but my friends from Guangxi and Yunnan are far more sympathetic to democracy, marriage equality, gay rights etc. compared to friends from Shanghai and Beijing

Because they've not yet caught up in economic status. Once they catch up, they may become as conservative.

And cities in Guangxi and Yunan are not rural. They're just not first or second tier cities, but cities all the same. When people get to live an OK life, they will become more conservative and won't like the current situation to change too much.

Beijing and Shanghai were definitely the most outspoken cities toward Western values, as they were among the first to be exposed, and the young people gather there for higher education. The change of wind means a lot.

Re: Why Hong Kong Is Still Marching

#192

Post by song »

mnming wrote: post #185

Almost all press focus on the fact that there are two millions people on the street and the possibility of power abuse caused by this bill. None of them pay any attention to pros & cons of this bill from a rational perspective. People barely remembers that the origin of this bill is to extradite one brutal killer of a Taiwan girl. No one is seeking middle ground or constructive result. People see, people fear, people…

It was the brutal killing of a HK girl not a Taiwan girl. The murderer killed his girlfriend while traveling to Taiwan for Valentine Day.

Also Taiwan's government has explicitly stated that this bill is not needed to bring the murderer to justice and that this has only been used as an excuse to pass this law.

Additionally Taiwan said that if the bill pass they would refuse to use it to bring this murderer to justice as they are against this bill.

And finally, per the bill, the central government of the country need to approve the extradition. China doesn't recognize the central government of Taiwan so as per the law community in HK, it's not sure how this bill could ever be used in cases like that murder.

So, yes people have discussed it, people have their facts straight about this bill.

Re: Why Hong Kong Is Still Marching

#193

Post by toyg »

enriquto wrote: post #176
toyg wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand the technicalities, but Wilson’s Doctrine clearly applies to the citizens of Texas in 2019 as much as to the citizens of Austria-Hungary a century earlier. If it became absolutely certain that an overwhelming majority of Texans wanted to secede, the right answer would be to draw up ways to allow them to do so in the smoothest and most legal way, not to send the US Army to quash it. I understand the Civil…

> If it became absolutely certain that an overwhelming majority of Texans wanted to secede, why does it need to be an overwhelming majority (what does that even mean exactly?) and not a simple majority? In case a non overwhelming majority of Texans wanted to secede, should their will be thwarted by a minority of their compatriots? It does not sound very democratic.

Democracy does not mean "51% rules", that's a common misconception. Democracy is about building legitimacy from as an uncontrovertial source as possible - from the clear and free choice of the body politic of a community rather than from some sort of divine revelation. Legitimacy comes from all political actors, from the minority accepting the will of the majority (because it knows its fundamental rights will be respected even in defeat, and that the "battle" could be fought again once people changed their minds) as much as from the majority itself. When we forget that, that's when the XX century nightmares rear their ugly heads.

51% on a binary choice for huge constitutional change is simply not an unequivocal result; it's well below the margin for error/fraud and reduces the legitimacy of the choice pretty dramatically. Obviously every group is free to set the rules it prefers, but taking a massive step on such a tiny majority is a recipe for strife and division. On such a small margin you can rule for a few years, not take decisions that are supposed to be set in stone and affect everyone forevermore.

Realistically, if you have more than 40-45% of the country opposed to a massive constitutional change, you are probably not getting enough legitimacy to make the process fully democratic in nature. There are further tests down the line, but a large margin is the very first one to meet if you really want to find "the will of the people" (which in itself is a troublesome construct, but that's another story). Once you get close to "2 in 3", then it's harder to argue.

Re: Why Hong Kong Is Still Marching

#194

Post by hoseja »

mrobot wrote: post #115
mrobot wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't they have elections? Maybe the people want him there, then.

Is there not some sort of democratic structure that allows people to have a say in their government? If you took a survey of random Chinese people would they say Xi Xinping is some dictator that they don't want there?

Everybody loves Brother Xi.

Re: Why Hong Kong Is Still Marching

#195

Post by afarrell »

toyg wrote: post #156
pvg wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wilson’s Doctrine clearly applies to the citizens of Texas in 2019 as much as to the citizens of Austria-Hungary a century earlier. How do you figure? I don't think any mainstream view of 'self-determination' and certainly not Wilson's just up and grants national sovereignty for the asking. Texas is plenty autonomous.

“I don’t think so” is not an argument. Texas is a well-defined territory with a well-defined set of cultural characteristics. Its population has as much of a right to self-determination as Catalunya, Scotland, Croatia, Slovakia or Kosovo, should a consensus emerge in the region. This is hardly controversial.

> This is hardly controversial

> Catalunya

> Kosovo

I'm a bit confused. Are you saying that it is non-controversial that Catalunya or Kosovo can secede and then using that to argue that it is non-controversial that Texas can secede?

Re: Why Hong Kong Is Still Marching

#196

Post by pishpash »

mantap wrote: post #111
Caprinicus wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are long term on many things, but not things that concern national pride. It is unclear what threat a semiautonomous HK actually presents to them, beyond just being a bunch of people near Shenzhen who can say mean things about you. It’s not like a rebellion could start there, they would be perfectly happy being left alone.

The threat of HK is that the mainlanders might start wanting some democracy for themselves. In a way China made a mistake asking for HK back. While it was British they had a convenient boogeyman to point to, now it is part of China, Beijing has nowhere to hide, and the only option they have is to destroy it. This will be a painful process for both Beijing and HK.

There is a genuine fear of social disintegration if democracy were implemented in the mainland. Unfortunately, since Tian'anmen Square, the CPC has lacked leaders with the wisdom and guts to experiment with political reform and so now, HK's 1C2S is a threat that needs to be fire-walled off instead of an opportunity.

In terms of political culture, I don't think either side really understands the other.

Re: Why Hong Kong Is Still Marching

#197

Post by [deleted] »

pvg wrote: post #58
toyg wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand the technicalities, but Wilson’s Doctrine clearly applies to the citizens of Texas in 2019 as much as to the citizens of Austria-Hungary a century earlier. If it became absolutely certain that an overwhelming majority of Texans wanted to secede, the right answer would be to draw up ways to allow them to do so in the smoothest and most legal way, not to send the US Army to quash it. I understand the Civil…

Wilson’s Doctrine clearly applies to the citizens of Texas in 2019 as much as to the citizens of Austria-Hungary a century earlier. How do you figure? I don't think any mainstream view of 'self-determination' and certainly not Wilson's just up and grants national sovereignty for the asking. Texas is plenty autonomous.

[deleted]

Re: Why Hong Kong Is Still Marching

#198

Post by afarrell »

toyg wrote: post #40
beachy wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For the same sort of reason that Texas can't?

I understand the technicalities, but Wilson’s Doctrine clearly applies to the citizens of Texas in 2019 as much as to the citizens of Austria-Hungary a century earlier. If it became absolutely certain that an overwhelming majority of Texans wanted to secede, the right answer would be to draw up ways to allow them to do so in the smoothest and most legal way, not to send the US Army to quash it. I understand the Civil…

Austria-Hungary was not a state with a functional and loyal military in 1919. The reason why Wilson's Doctrine applied to it was that there were French, Romanian, Italian, and Serbian troops occupying parts of its territory.

Re: Why Hong Kong Is Still Marching

#199

Post by pishpash »

phantomathkg wrote: post #32
smnrchrds wrote: post #12

Could someone please explain what the long-term goal of the protesters is? Best case scenario, HK and Chinese government postpone the integration until 2047. What then? When the borders come down, what will happen to all those who openly talked against Beijing government, held candlelight vigils for Tienanmen Square victims, and rallied and protested against a government who does not like people protesting and does n…

The short term goal is very simple. * Withdraw the bill, not a temporary suspension. * Withdraw the characterisation of last Wed protest as a riot.

Then? Carrie Lam step down? Then? Chief Executive elected directly? Then? Independence referendum? Then? ...

There is no end really, and absent a working political process to absorb and debate demands, street protests can always turn toward the extreme. That's why it's dangerous to force people to go this route.

Unfortunately there will be a red line somewhere, and for China it is probably one or two steps away on that list. Remember, Tian'anmen Square also spiraled out of control from very mild beginnings.

Re: Why Hong Kong Is Still Marching

#200

Post by Angostura »

smnrchrds wrote: post #12

Could someone please explain what the long-term goal of the protesters is? Best case scenario, HK and Chinese government postpone the integration until 2047. What then? When the borders come down, what will happen to all those who openly talked against Beijing government, held candlelight vigils for Tienanmen Square victims, and rallied and protested against a government who does not like people protesting and does n…

Putting of a bad policy for a little less than 30 years doesn't seem trivial.
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