Amazon to shut down its Amazon Restaurants business in the U.S.

Hm kind of reminds me of Ikea's food racket. Actually I'm sitting here trying to think of why that wouldn't work but I honestly can't. Cool idea!

Not surprising. I got a number of promotions for this but every time I went to see what restaurants were available it was just fast food. Nothing that wasn't already available from Uber eats or Caviar.

Just as there are already “enough” physical cars, there is also already enough physical restaurant infrastructure, so today it’s more a question of efficient utilization. What Uber Eats is doing in this space is really smart: Keeping track of local food search keywords, and reaching out to local restaurants saying “Hey, if you provided such-and-such food items at such-and-such time of day in your area, we think you’d do really well. You can sell these items on Uber Eats under a different brand if they don’t fit in your existing cuisine niche.”

Longer-term you’re probably right that centralization could be more efficient in some cases, but looking too far into the future often makes less economic sense today. See: Webvan.

I thought about this a lot during our home buying process. Our agent, too, wasn't asked to do much... because we found the house we wanted online, and had our financing, so the agent didn't have to show us any houses or help us along in any way. She just submitted our offer and that was that.

I have heard that realtors, like for instance car dealers, simply have a vested interest in middleman-ing the inventory by way of commission and there are powerful lobbies that protect that interest. I've heard that there is cartel-like control over the MLS listing service, which requires you to be a member of the Realtors Association for access, and is a shared venture between all the major real estate companies -- which, if you aren't a part of, basically means you can't even know what house is for sale. I don't know if any of that's true.

In this day in age, it's hard for me to fully trust a process like buying property that is just so opaque. Purely for conversation purposes, an anecdote of mine: we bought a house and we were willing to pay a certain amount over, no more, because we had a hard budget. So we told our agent, we want this house for list price. The agent says, we can do that, but "the seller is expecting multiple offers and they are reviewing them tomorrow". Okay, fine, whatever. So we put in our offer, with an escalation clause going up another $15k to our theoretical max. Lo and behold, we have two offers on the table that beat ours. "But they really liked your letter, so is there any way you could make your offer better? Borrow money from your family? Take an employer loan from your 401k?" So I say no, absolutely not, I won't be doing that. We'll just wait til next year when we have more money and do this again. Thanks.

So a week later, we get a phone call. Oops! Guess what? The top offer bailed unexpectedly, and the 2nd best offer wants time to reconsider. "If you resubmit your offer tonight, I'm sure the seller will accept". Okay, fine, resubmit it. Thirty minutes later, the offer was accepted and we closed in about 20 days from then. It was a crazy ride! And we are definitely happy with the house we got for the price we paid. But at the same time, I'm left to wonder... how do I know those other offers existed? How do I know they weren't just trying to get more money out of us? I suppose I could ask for proof, but even those types of documents have been faked before. I trusted our people and the process seemed above board, but it's one of those things that is so convoluted and human that I felt weird about it then, and I still do to some extent. Perhaps I'm just cynical. It really doesn't keep me up at night, though. Like I said, I'm happy with the place.

But the reality was clear: in that industry, it seems so clear that collusion COULD easily exist... and if that's the reality, I'm sure it does exist in at least some instances.

> There is no reason home sale paperwork should cost thousands of dollars to process. Someone like Amazon could eliminate agents altogether.

It’s a mistake to think that the real estate commission is primarily for paperwork or executing transactions that would have happened anyway.

I brought my house to our agent and pushed the sale through. That’s probably a rarity when I think about all the time friends of mine have spent with agents “house hunting”. That time costs money and to a great extent, the fat commissions are paying for a lot of “no commissions”.

People seeking to disrupt the “fill out the final transactional paperwork” part of real estate need to figure out how to disrupt the whole value chain, not just the part that looks outrageously overpriced.