Well done, Norway! If only the rest of the world would follow with the same pace. At least rich countries like Denmark, Switzerland etc
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Tesla boom lifts Norway's electric car sales to record market share
21–30 of 59 posts
Re: Tesla boom lifts Norway's electric car sales to record market share
#22Earlier quoted context omitted.
Noise makers are being added by law lots of places for good reason, but that's a bit off-topic isn't it?
It’s somewhat on topic as it reduces the desirability of an EV doesn’t it? IMO, they should require either a noise maker, or a sufficiently advanced pedestrian collision avoidance safety system. I would think that at the speed and in the scenarios a noise maker would help, a pedestrian safety system should be highly effective.
Systems designed to prevent cars hitting pedestrians are not designed for extremely low speed environments where these noise makers are most effective. Noise makers make no difference at highway speed, and in examples I've seen they aren't required at those speeds anyway. But they fix electric cars to not "sneak up" on pedestrians in these low speed environments.
At 3mph your car can very easily knock me down and crush me if I don't hear it coming, but designing software to recognise that it's going to collide with me, and not pass harmlessly a few metres away (a routine event you don't want the AI to freak out over) is really hard.
These low speeds are correlated with environments where it's much harder for a machine to intuit what's going on. Consider a typical open air car park next to a Walmart. A pedestrian is in view, then vanishes, the driver selects reverse - are we going to hit the pedestrian? Where did they go? The driver knows, because they have relevant experience, that the pedestrian is between two other parked cars, and won't be struck by reversing, but how can our AI figure that's where they went?
Re: Tesla boom lifts Norway's electric car sales to record market share
#23Meanwhile, France just decided that electric cars must be producing an artificial soud out of security.
I kinda like the space ship sound my EV makes while driving slow (under 20 km/h?). It's not very noticeable inside the vehicle. And makes way less noise than fossil cars on the outside.
I can also disable it until next trip, but I guess future laws might change that.
Re: Tesla boom lifts Norway's electric car sales to record market share
#24Earlier quoted context omitted.
Meh, these monthly fluctuations are dominated by noise, especially when expressed as "percentage of total sales". You get both the variation in EV sales and in ICE sales influencing. Look at the trends in the absolute numbers over time: https://elbilstatistikk.no/
Great link, thanks! Do they have monthly stats for each car in a single table? Can’t find it in mobile. Is there a YTD Total EV vs Total ICE?
It looks like total yearly sales for all types in Norway is ~150k/year. 6 months into the year, electric is at ~33k total. However you look at it, this is a tiny market.
Re: Tesla boom lifts Norway's electric car sales to record market share
#25Earlier quoted context omitted.
It’s somewhat on topic as it reduces the desirability of an EV doesn’t it? IMO, they should require either a noise maker, or a sufficiently advanced pedestrian collision avoidance safety system. I would think that at the speed and in the scenarios a noise maker would help, a pedestrian safety system should be highly effective.
Systems designed to prevent cars hitting pedestrians are not designed for extremely low speed environments where these noise makers are most effective. Noise makers make no difference at highway speed, and in examples I've seen they aren't required at those speeds anyway. But they fix electric cars to not "sneak up" on pedestrians in these low speed environments. At 3mph your car can very easily knock me down and cru…
Definitely this has nothing at all to do with highway speeds. We’re talking parking lots mainly.
I don’t see the need for intuition. What’s the stopping distance at 3mph? Less than 1 foot with full pre-charged braking I’m sure. An effective system should be able to see a pedestrian 6-12” from the car in the direction of travel, and stop on a dime. At these speeds a false positive isn’t itself a safety risk, although of course you would seek to minimize them.
It goes without saying the system will not be perfect. Neither are noise makers. I see no reason why such a system couldn’t be made that is more effective than fake engine noise.
Re: Tesla boom lifts Norway's electric car sales to record market share
#26Earlier quoted context omitted.
Which is playing the same Beta game. Would it be fair to just go by the YTD then?
Why would YTD be any fairer? By not being able to deliver, Tesla caused a massive backlog that they fulfill this year. Had they been able to deliver in December 2018, YTD would look much worse.
There is no perfect comparison and there never will be. Having said that, YTD would at least smooth out the month to month fluctuations caused by Tesla's supply and shipment schedule.
Arguably a reasonable approach might be to throw away the month that Tesla had its highest deliveries but still use the sum of all other months.
Re: Tesla boom lifts Norway's electric car sales to record market share
#27Earlier quoted context omitted.
March was crazy - over 5,000 TM3s registered. Versus 705 TM3 registrations in May, 424 so far in June. YTD is ~8,000 TM3 vs 3,700 Leaf.
But total is ~8k model 3 VS 54k leaf. People wanting a leaf could already buy one, while model 3 customers could only preorder. So these stats over a short timeframe only tell us that newer models sell better and that delivery of preorders skews the stats massively.
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Re: Tesla boom lifts Norway's electric car sales to record market share
#28This is a very oddly positioned story. The Nissan Leaf "lift[ed] Norway's electric car sales to record market share" before Tesla's Model 3 surpassed the Leaf in sales. The article seems to be making out that Tesla have been the cause of the record EV sales in Norway. In actuality, Tesla have recently become the most popular EV there, but EV sales were record-breaking before that.
Oslo resident here.
Indeed.
Look also to:
- the near-universality of charger stations on streets, both in residential and commercial districts;
- the huge tax subsidies for buying and owning electric vehicles;
- the low cost of (clean, incidentally) electricity (I believe most of the charger posts in the city are free, though I should note I don't drive myself);
- the substantial tarrifs and fees for poluting vehicles in the city center areas (we're talking more than a cup of coffee's cost to enter ring 1, as well as lighter but still extant fees for the larger outer rings);
- as well as some air control days where vehicles with exhaust may be outright forbidden from operating in the city center entirely...
- and all of these pressures are being tuned up over time. It's widely-discussed and part of campaigns to make things greener. So people are not only responding to the current numbers, but considering the future.
This has everything to do with the society, its incentives, and how those incentives were rationally designed; and very, very little to do with a particular manufacturer and their marketing.
Re: Tesla boom lifts Norway's electric car sales to record market share
#29Earlier quoted context omitted.
March was crazy - over 5,000 TM3s registered. Versus 705 TM3 registrations in May, 424 so far in June. YTD is ~8,000 TM3 vs 3,700 Leaf.
But total is ~8k model 3 VS 54k leaf. People wanting a leaf could already buy one, while model 3 customers could only preorder. So these stats over a short timeframe only tell us that newer models sell better and that delivery of preorders skews the stats massively.
Now you’re comparing total lifetime sales numbers for a model car that just started shipping in a market this February with a model that’s been shipping since, what, 2010?
Of course there’s nothing stopping Nissan from introducing a new upgraded Leaf in 2019. Maybe they did?
Re: Tesla boom lifts Norway's electric car sales to record market share
#30Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why would YTD be any fairer? By not being able to deliver, Tesla caused a massive backlog that they fulfill this year. Had they been able to deliver in December 2018, YTD would look much worse.
There is no perfect comparison and there never will be. Having said that, YTD would at least smooth out the month to month fluctuations caused by Tesla's supply and shipment schedule. Arguably a reasonable approach might be to throw away the month that Tesla had its highest deliveries but still use the sum of all other months.
There’s a ton of options to make the stats better comparable. What I primarily wanted to point out is that an arbitrary cutoff point skews the stats. For any cutoff point you choose to make your point I can pick another. An interesting comparison would be the 2nd,3rd,4th month of sales of the 2019 leaf vs the model 3. But the leaf isn’t shipping to Europe yet afaics.