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Tesla boom lifts Norway's electric car sales to record market share

reuters.com

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Re: Tesla boom lifts Norway's electric car sales to record market share

#11

Post by Xylakant »

zaroth wrote: post #7
lucideer wrote: post #4

This is a very oddly positioned story. The Nissan Leaf "lift[ed] Norway's electric car sales to record market share" before Tesla's Model 3 surpassed the Leaf in sales. The article seems to be making out that Tesla have been the cause of the record EV sales in Norway. In actuality, Tesla have recently become the most popular EV there, but EV sales were record-breaking before that.

Tesla is the cause of the current record sales of EVs in Norway, per TFA; > In 2018, Norway’s fully electric car sales rose to a record 31.2 percent market share from 20.8 percent in 2017, far ahead of any other nation, and buyers had to wait as producers struggled to keep up with demand. > The surge of electric cars to a 58.4 percent market share in March came as Tesla ramped up delivery of its mid-sized Model 3...…

I’d be generally cautious with month-to-month stats. Tesla has many preorders and only started really fulfilling the european ones in March. So hey could easily have gamed the stats by shifting many February sales to March.

Re: Tesla boom lifts Norway's electric car sales to record market share

#12

Post by zaroth »

RankingMember wrote: post #6
ecares wrote: post #5

Meanwhile, France just decided that electric cars must be producing an artificial soud out of security.

Noise makers are being added by law lots of places for good reason, but that's a bit off-topic isn't it?

It’s somewhat on topic as it reduces the desirability of an EV doesn’t it?

IMO, they should require either a noise maker, or a sufficiently advanced pedestrian collision avoidance safety system.

I would think that at the speed and in the scenarios a noise maker would help, a pedestrian safety system should be highly effective.

Re: Tesla boom lifts Norway's electric car sales to record market share

#13

Post by zaroth »

shereadsthenews wrote: post #9
zaroth wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is the cause of the current record sales of EVs in Norway, per TFA; > In 2018, Norway’s fully electric car sales rose to a record 31.2 percent market share from 20.8 percent in 2017, far ahead of any other nation, and buyers had to wait as producers struggled to keep up with demand. > The surge of electric cars to a 58.4 percent market share in March came as Tesla ramped up delivery of its mid-sized Model 3...…

Tesla performs this stunt constantly. What they do is they don't deliver any cars for months at a time, whether because they can't or choose not to I don't know. Then they dump all the backorders on some small nation all at once and put out a press release about how they are the best-selling car in that place because they recognized a year of sales in a single month.

March was crazy - over 5,000 TM3s registered.

Versus 705 TM3 registrations in May, 424 so far in June.

YTD is ~8,000 TM3 vs 3,700 Leaf.

Re: Tesla boom lifts Norway's electric car sales to record market share

#14

Post by shereadsthenews »

zaroth wrote: post #13
shereadsthenews wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla performs this stunt constantly. What they do is they don't deliver any cars for months at a time, whether because they can't or choose not to I don't know. Then they dump all the backorders on some small nation all at once and put out a press release about how they are the best-selling car in that place because they recognized a year of sales in a single month.

March was crazy - over 5,000 TM3s registered. Versus 705 TM3 registrations in May, 424 so far in June. YTD is ~8,000 TM3 vs 3,700 Leaf.

Yes that's true, I should have said that they begin delivering cars after a long time of booking orders. Look at the number of Tesla Model 3s that were registered in various countries prior to March 2019.

Re: Tesla boom lifts Norway's electric car sales to record market share

#15

Post by semi-extrinsic »

zaroth wrote: post #13
shereadsthenews wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla performs this stunt constantly. What they do is they don't deliver any cars for months at a time, whether because they can't or choose not to I don't know. Then they dump all the backorders on some small nation all at once and put out a press release about how they are the best-selling car in that place because they recognized a year of sales in a single month.

March was crazy - over 5,000 TM3s registered. Versus 705 TM3 registrations in May, 424 so far in June. YTD is ~8,000 TM3 vs 3,700 Leaf.

Total TM3 registrations for 2019 is 7973, which is exactly GPs point. There was a big rush of deliveries in March.

For May, the Volkswagen e-Golf outsold the TM3 by 25%.

Re: Tesla boom lifts Norway's electric car sales to record market share

#16

Post by zaroth »

semi-extrinsic wrote: post #10
zaroth wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is the cause of the current record sales of EVs in Norway, per TFA; > In 2018, Norway’s fully electric car sales rose to a record 31.2 percent market share from 20.8 percent in 2017, far ahead of any other nation, and buyers had to wait as producers struggled to keep up with demand. > The surge of electric cars to a 58.4 percent market share in March came as Tesla ramped up delivery of its mid-sized Model 3...…

Meh, these monthly fluctuations are dominated by noise, especially when expressed as "percentage of total sales". You get both the variation in EV sales and in ICE sales influencing. Look at the trends in the absolute numbers over time: https://elbilstatistikk.no/

Great link, thanks! Do they have monthly stats for each car in a single table? Can’t find it in mobile.

Is there a YTD Total EV vs Total ICE?

Re: Tesla boom lifts Norway's electric car sales to record market share

#17

Post by zaroth »

semi-extrinsic wrote: post #15
zaroth wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

March was crazy - over 5,000 TM3s registered. Versus 705 TM3 registrations in May, 424 so far in June. YTD is ~8,000 TM3 vs 3,700 Leaf.

Total TM3 registrations for 2019 is 7973, which is exactly GPs point. There was a big rush of deliveries in March. For May, the Volkswagen e-Golf outsold the TM3 by 25%.

Which is playing the same Beta game. Would it be fair to just go by the YTD then?

Re: Tesla boom lifts Norway's electric car sales to record market share

#18

Post by Xylakant »

zaroth wrote: post #13
shereadsthenews wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla performs this stunt constantly. What they do is they don't deliver any cars for months at a time, whether because they can't or choose not to I don't know. Then they dump all the backorders on some small nation all at once and put out a press release about how they are the best-selling car in that place because they recognized a year of sales in a single month.

March was crazy - over 5,000 TM3s registered. Versus 705 TM3 registrations in May, 424 so far in June. YTD is ~8,000 TM3 vs 3,700 Leaf.

But total is ~8k model 3 VS 54k leaf. People wanting a leaf could already buy one, while model 3 customers could only preorder. So these stats over a short timeframe only tell us that newer models sell better and that delivery of preorders skews the stats massively.

Re: Tesla boom lifts Norway's electric car sales to record market share

#19

Post by Xylakant »

zaroth wrote: post #17
semi-extrinsic wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Total TM3 registrations for 2019 is 7973, which is exactly GPs point. There was a big rush of deliveries in March. For May, the Volkswagen e-Golf outsold the TM3 by 25%.

Which is playing the same Beta game. Would it be fair to just go by the YTD then?

Why would YTD be any fairer? By not being able to deliver, Tesla caused a massive backlog that they fulfill this year. Had they been able to deliver in December 2018, YTD would look much worse.

Re: Tesla boom lifts Norway's electric car sales to record market share

#20

Post by zaroth »

shereadsthenews wrote: post #14
zaroth wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

March was crazy - over 5,000 TM3s registered. Versus 705 TM3 registrations in May, 424 so far in June. YTD is ~8,000 TM3 vs 3,700 Leaf.

Yes that's true, I should have said that they begin delivering cars after a long time of booking orders. Look at the number of Tesla Model 3s that were registered in various countries prior to March 2019.

The most interesting thing to watch will be how sales progress over the first full year of deliveries in each market.

Obviously the first quarter will be a rush of deliveries in each market as the backlog clears. Then there will be a trough where everyone who was an early adopter has got theirs and the late majority starts to consider all these TM3s they see scooting around.

How quickly Tesla recovers from the trough and how high the long term market share will go is absolutely the Billion dollar question.

Reportedly strong demand this quarter in North America points to the TM3 potentially having broad appeal beyond the EV zealots, but it’s very much too early to tell.

If you know the answer to this question, it’s the difference between TSLA at $10 and TSLA at $500. I have my own opinion, and I put some money on it. But I’m a TM3 owner, I absolutely adore the machine, and I think it’s 5 years ahead of any competition and is going to absolutely clean up as people realize it’s sensational to drive, it doesn’t actually cost $80k (can’t tell you how many people I’ve talk to that think that) and in particular the long term TCO is actually downright economical.

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