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Peloton Confidentially Files Statement for Proposed IPO

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Re: Peloton Confidentially Files Statement for Proposed IPO

#91

Post by bogomipz »

wlesieutre wrote: post #34
bstar77 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This bike is for people that don't want to go to a gym and/or don't have lots of time to leave the house on a daily basis. You can also finance the bike so the hit isn't so bad. Additionally, there's no extra charge for multiple accounts (up to 10), so if everyone in the house uses it, the cost makes more sense. I work out of home and this is the only way I get consistent exercise. My fitness has gone up tremendously…

Semi-related, I just got a $400 Oculus Quest and burned 1900 calories playing Beat Saber yesterday (as calculated by Apple Watch's "Other" workout type). Much cheaper purchase and fun enough that I can enjoy playing it for hours a day. I have an (admittedly shitty) exercise bike, and will probably be using that a lot less now. If anyone's looking for a home fitness gadget, give that a look. I'm told BoxVR is a better…

Genuinely curious - how long of a session is required to burn those 1900 calories?

Re: Peloton Confidentially Files Statement for Proposed IPO

#92

Post by ousta »

sneak wrote: post #64
bruceb wrote: post #8

A friend of mine got a Peloton, and I as a good friend razzed him about it a couple times. Like a $2k stationary bike, come on! But now I get it. He is a busy professional who would not always have time to go to the gym. He is also a bit of a special case as he legally blind and could walk fast to exercise but could never ride a regular bike. This being said he has lost a decent amount of weight. Part of it is the in…

I had one, and I sold it. The music is abysmal and the video streams are low res. The classes and subscription offer nothing over free YouTube videos. All the bike’s electronics do is detect the resistance level (you have to set the resistance yourself, mind you) and the RPM. Combined with a bluetooth heart rate monitor, they give you some charts and graphs. You can do this all yourself with an app and a bike that co…

you compare dyson - a leader doing innovation and revolutionizing multiple fields - to beats a marketing company rebranding schenzen components

Re: Peloton Confidentially Files Statement for Proposed IPO

#93

Post by wlesieutre »

bogomipz wrote: post #91
wlesieutre wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Semi-related, I just got a $400 Oculus Quest and burned 1900 calories playing Beat Saber yesterday (as calculated by Apple Watch's "Other" workout type). Much cheaper purchase and fun enough that I can enjoy playing it for hours a day. I have an (admittedly shitty) exercise bike, and will probably be using that a lot less now. If anyone's looking for a home fitness gadget, give that a look. I'm told BoxVR is a better…

Genuinely curious - how long of a session is required to burn those 1900 calories?

That was split over three sessions totaling 2:17, and is for me being 5' 10" and around 210 lbs. If you're skinnier than me you'll probably burn less.

It was a good chunk of my evening and my arms are pretty sore today, so I don't plan on doing that all the time. But I'll absolutely do it more often than I run/bike 1900 calories.

Re: Peloton Confidentially Files Statement for Proposed IPO

#94

Post by bitwize »

codeulike wrote: post #2

When I see Peloton now, I always think of this twitter thread that critiques their adverts https://twitter.com/clueheywood/status/1089699762331217920

Yeah, Peloton is basically SoulCycle for people who think $5000 is a reasonable price to pay for a computer monitor.

Re: Peloton Confidentially Files Statement for Proposed IPO

#95

Post by ceejayoz »

wlesieutre wrote: post #34
bstar77 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This bike is for people that don't want to go to a gym and/or don't have lots of time to leave the house on a daily basis. You can also finance the bike so the hit isn't so bad. Additionally, there's no extra charge for multiple accounts (up to 10), so if everyone in the house uses it, the cost makes more sense. I work out of home and this is the only way I get consistent exercise. My fitness has gone up tremendously…

Semi-related, I just got a $400 Oculus Quest and burned 1900 calories playing Beat Saber yesterday (as calculated by Apple Watch's "Other" workout type). Much cheaper purchase and fun enough that I can enjoy playing it for hours a day. I have an (admittedly shitty) exercise bike, and will probably be using that a lot less now. If anyone's looking for a home fitness gadget, give that a look. I'm told BoxVR is a better…

I've been playing "Space Pirate Trainer" on my new Quest and was shocked at how worked-out my legs felt afterwards from dodging incoming shots by squatting/leaning.

Re: Peloton Confidentially Files Statement for Proposed IPO

#96

Post by alistairSH »

TomVDB wrote: post #76
spyspy wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My sides. I have friends working there that have tried getting me to apply. Glassdoor reviews indicated their backend interview is unnecessarily difficult and I have little faith in their business model. How many people are willing to spend thousands on an exercise bike? Let alone one that requires a $40/month subscription? It feels the same as Blue Apron - the market is people rich and lazy enough that don't want do…

> How many people are willing to spend thousands on an exercise bike? Tons of them. I've had a bunch of setups where you could plug in your road bike into a stationary setup, with virtual screen and everything, but the hassle of setting it up was always just a little too much friction. It'd be the logical N+1 addition to my stable of more expensive road, cross and mountain bikes. You have no idea how much people are…

I don't understand Peloton because there are smart-trainers available (Wahoo Kickr, etc).

$1000 bike. $1000 trainer. $15/month for Zwift or TrainerRoad.

And you can take the bike outside when the weather is nice.

Or, for a bike enthusiast (or anybody who already owns a bike), the bike is already there. So, it's just the trainer.

Re: Peloton Confidentially Files Statement for Proposed IPO

#97

Post by seattle_spring »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #75
bruceb wrote: post #8

A friend of mine got a Peloton, and I as a good friend razzed him about it a couple times. Like a $2k stationary bike, come on! But now I get it. He is a busy professional who would not always have time to go to the gym. He is also a bit of a special case as he legally blind and could walk fast to exercise but could never ride a regular bike. This being said he has lost a decent amount of weight. Part of it is the in…

> Like a $2k stationary bike For reference, a trainer costs about that much a quarter.

A trainer also teaches you to be self sufficient, and works on a full body strength and cardio workout instead of fully cardio with the same motions.

Re: Peloton Confidentially Files Statement for Proposed IPO

#98

Post by ftio »

Peloton's business model is breathtakingly good, but I wonder about the size of their TAM and their ability to have sustained, multiplicative growth in the future.

First, the business model. They sell you a $2000+ bike, which includes a year of live classes with some of the best spin instructors in the world. Afterwards, you pay for a $40/month subscription in perpetuity to make your $2000 investment more than a boring (although very high quality) stationary bike. Whether you're hooked on the (excellent) service or not, if you're the kind of person who's willing to drop $2000 on a bike, you're very, very likely to be the kind of person who's willing to pay just $40/month to make sure your bike retains its value (i.e., access to live classes), even if you're not using it that much. Doesn't hurt that in-person spin classes regularly cost $30-40 for a single class.

I imagine Peloton's subscription churn is extremely low. This is excellent, and I'm jealous.

But, growth.

How big is the market of people who are willing to spend $2000 on and have space for an indoor bike? What happens when Peloton captures nearly all the market? What happens when a lower-priced version of Peloton comes in and eats their lunch at the "bottom end" (so to speak) of it?

Once you've effectively exhausted the market for selling new bikes (when new customer acquisition slows), you've got three options: find a new market, sell new things to your existing customers, or charge them more for the same things.

Peloton's already doing the first two. They're trying to show investors that they can cross-sell and/or establish new markets: they sell a $4000 treadmill. (My theory about the treadmill is that nearly 100% of its purpose is to show the market that cross-sell is possible — I have doubts about whether they're selling). I have extreme doubts about the viability of this. I mean, how many workout machines are you going to put in your house? Rough estimate: this segment is no more than 10% of Peloton's existing customer base.

In addition to all this, they could (obviously) also raise prices, but at $50-60/month for the subscription, you start to put those great churn numbers at risk.

Either way, really interested to see what they do.

Re: Peloton Confidentially Files Statement for Proposed IPO

#99

Post by alistairSH »

zerkten wrote: post #26
kevin_thibedeau wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People pay for gym memberships that they never use. They also buy home exercise equipment that collects dust for most of its life. Then you have active cyclists that will splurge $5K+ on a real bike and want a way to ride when the weather makes it troublesome. There is a market.

There is a definite market, but like gym memberships it is likely to contract during downturns. The folks I know with Pelotons are cycle infrequently and have a more general regime. As a cyclist I'd be interested to know how many get a Peloton versus sticking with traditional trainers? Ignoring the all-weather cyclists it'd also be interesting to know how many ride into the shoulders of the season. Most of the folks…

DC resident and cyclist. I ride year-round, but in winter I do scheduled indoor group sessions (currently, on Wahoo Kickrs) as the ground tends to be too squishy with the freeze/thaw for the mountain bike (which I prefer to the road bike).

I also own a Kickr at home. My spare mountain bike is mounted on it year-round. Through summer, I do the 30-minute workout program on TrainerRoad (rainy days or when I work late, but I try to do most riding outside).

My issue with Peloton isn't the money. As noted, like many cyclists, I have several expensive bikes. It's the lack of specificity for actual cycling. And the subscription is just ridiculous, when Zwift and TrainerRoad are $15/month for similar software.

Re: Peloton Confidentially Files Statement for Proposed IPO

#100

Post by koolba »

ftio wrote: post #98

Peloton's business model is breathtakingly good, but I wonder about the size of their TAM and their ability to have sustained, multiplicative growth in the future. First, the business model. They sell you a $2000+ bike, which includes a year of live classes with some of the best spin instructors in the world. Afterwards, you pay for a $40/month subscription in perpetuity to make your $2000 investment more than a bori…

> Doesn't hurt that in-person spin classes regularly cost $30-40 for a single class.

The first time I heard about the prices people were willing to pay for spin class I thought it was joke.

Turns out there really are (a lot) of people out there that will pay $40 to have someone periodically yell at them for an hour.

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