Peloton Confidentially Files Statement for Proposed IPO • Hacker News Board

Re: Peloton Confidentially Files Statement for Proposed IPO

#61

Post by spyspy » Wed, Jun 05, 2019, 5:51 PM UTC

freefal wrote: post #30

ConsumerLed wrote: post #7

Incredible marketing from Peloton and they builds on the Spinning/Indoor cycling trend that SoulCycle and FlyWheel started. But I can't help but think a lot of people would be better off with a real bike, a smart turbo trainer and an iPad to access a variety of training programs (i.e. Zwift TrainerRoad). Less lock in, the ability to ride outside, and all possible for a similar price to Peloton bike. As a cyclist I've…

Agree regarding preferring Zwift and a turbo but the sort of setup you describe seems to appeal to cyclists whereas the Peloton seems to appeal to the spin class crowd, many of who would never consider riding outside. The market is weirdly bifurcated between the two without a ton of overlap.

> seems to appeal to the spin class crowd

This is the reason I don't see this as a good long term investment. The market seems to be people who are already really into spin classes and pay the premiums they demand. To them, having their own equipment and a lower monthly fee will seem like a good deal. But your average gym-goer won't be willing to drop thousands upfront and more per month just on a nice exercise bike.

Re: Peloton Confidentially Files Statement for Proposed IPO

#62

Post by dang » Wed, Jun 05, 2019, 5:52 PM UTC

inscionent wrote: post #22

bluedino wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$2k isn't absurt for an exercise bike once you think about it. These are the same people who buy a $10,000 bike for recreational riding, remember. You are dead on with the point about the instructors. My wife hated biking but they have Pelotons in her work gym, and she loves them, and talks about the instructors like they are real people. People are fitness crazy right now. Crossfit gyms are $100-200 a month, Rogue h…

The instructors aren't real people?

"Please respond to the strongest plausible interpretation of what someone says, not a weaker one that's easier to criticize. Assume good faith."

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Re: Peloton Confidentially Files Statement for Proposed IPO

#63

Post by wlesieutre » Wed, Jun 05, 2019, 6:02 PM UTC

ygjb wrote: post #55

wlesieutre wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Semi-related, I just got a $400 Oculus Quest and burned 1900 calories playing Beat Saber yesterday (as calculated by Apple Watch's "Other" workout type). Much cheaper purchase and fun enough that I can enjoy playing it for hours a day. I have an (admittedly shitty) exercise bike, and will probably be using that a lot less now. If anyone's looking for a home fitness gadget, give that a look. I'm told BoxVR is a better…

Everyone else is saying how absurd the 1900 calorie claim is, and comparing it to other types of exercise, but even if it is the much lower 360 calories, most sedentary gamers are more likely to do this multiple times per week than say, run a marathon, or even start doing a program like C25K. That's a huge win in my book...

I mentioned in other comments (and edited a bit with more accurate numbers), but I'll put it here too: the watch worked it out to 830 calories/hour and Runner's World says that's equivalent to me running at 11:30 minutes/mile based on my 210 lbs weight.

I've only gone running once this spring so I don't have a huge dataset (lots of walking and exercise bike instead), but the one run I did was a 10:30 mile. So I'm not especially fast, but 11:30 is a slow pace for me and feels reasonable as a beat saber equivalent workout.

Downside, the Quest's foam face-interface gets absolutely drenched in sweat. I need to get a sweatband and a wipeable pad replacement as soon as VRCover catches up on their backorders.

Even as an exercise bike owner who can hop on that for a workout whenever I want to, I've never gotten home from work and said "You know what I want to do? Exercise bike for more than two hours."

Compared to half an hour of exercise bike and two hours of Overwatch, I think this will be a huge deal for fitness.

Re: Peloton Confidentially Files Statement for Proposed IPO

#64

Post by sneak » Wed, Jun 05, 2019, 6:02 PM UTC

bruceb wrote: post #8

A friend of mine got a Peloton, and I as a good friend razzed him about it a couple times. Like a $2k stationary bike, come on! But now I get it. He is a busy professional who would not always have time to go to the gym. He is also a bit of a special case as he legally blind and could walk fast to exercise but could never ride a regular bike. This being said he has lost a decent amount of weight. Part of it is the in…

I had one, and I sold it. The music is abysmal and the video streams are low res. The classes and subscription offer nothing over free YouTube videos.

All the bike’s electronics do is detect the resistance level (you have to set the resistance yourself, mind you) and the RPM. Combined with a bluetooth heart rate monitor, they give you some charts and graphs. You can do this all yourself with an app and a bike that costs a third as much.

It’s mostly just an overpriced android tablet. Kudos to them to following the Dyson and Beats by Dre model of margin-building to the letter.

Their greyhat astroturfing campaigns on social media are second to none, though. I might buy their IPO, although I staunchly advise my friends and associates to avoid their products.

Re: Peloton Confidentially Files Statement for Proposed IPO

#65

Post by wlesieutre » Wed, Jun 05, 2019, 6:06 PM UTC

sojournerc wrote: post #44

wlesieutre wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not a fun way to exercise if you live somewhere like NYC. Or weather wise, anywhere in the northern US where it's cold and snowy for from November to February.

Fair enough, but I'm not sure that NYC would keep me in the house for exercise. I live in the mountains of Colorado, but will always prefer exercising outdoors, even in winter. I tend to modify my exercise for the time of year and weather. In winter it tends towards running and skiing. Summer is for biking (and more running). I like to have variety of activities (helps to build up a diverse set of strength) and the s…

Previous years I've done running in the summer, but I hate it in the winter. Motivation to work out has been a hard enough barrier, so once the air gets too cold to breathe comfortably I'd pretty much stop.

Exercise bike was a game changer last winter in terms of getting me to stick with regular workouts.

Re: Peloton Confidentially Files Statement for Proposed IPO

#66

Post by lawlington » Wed, Jun 05, 2019, 6:06 PM UTC

kevin_thibedeau wrote: post #59

rchaud wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You could not go to a gym for 3 years and your membership fees would still cost you less than the $2000 bike, let alone the monthly subscription.

People are paying over $100 per class for yoga and spin classes in major cities.

Sure, but you pay for those per session it's not an automatic charge, so they aren't just wasting $100 repeatedly, they're getting (what they feel like) is their moneys worth per session. I'd be willing to bet there's a small amount of people (probably ~5% or less) that sign up for a class during the week and then eschew it in favor of laziness.

Re: Peloton Confidentially Files Statement for Proposed IPO

#67

Post by sneak » Wed, Jun 05, 2019, 6:08 PM UTC

bedhead wrote: post #11

Peloton has better legs than most, but the reality is that every fitness craze has eventually died whether it’s equipment (eg Bowflex) or method (eg Tae Bo). It’s just human nature, this and diet (eh Atkins) aren’t sustainable things with how most people are wired. Peloton will fade one day just like all the others before it as people inevitably get bored with it and doing it becomes a drag.

The LCHF diet is not only sustainable, it has changed the lives of many people I know, including people who claim it has improved their mental states, emotional states, chronic pain, and weight gain.

I myself was pre-diabetic from the standard western diet of 2000kcal+ daily refined carbohydrates, and have pulled back from the brink by going LCHF.

Don’t dismiss it without a little bit of experience. It’s a growing movement, and it isn’t a fad. It has provided real results and real improvement to many, many people, and has spawned dozens or hundreds of successful small businesses.

Re: Peloton Confidentially Files Statement for Proposed IPO

#68

Post by uptown » Wed, Jun 05, 2019, 6:14 PM UTC

We haven't bought the $2k bike yet, but did roll our own Peloton with a lower-end bike and their $11/month streaming subscription watched on an iPad. It gets you most of the value without the pricey bike, though you miss out on the gamification part of their platform. Both my wife and I are users - and may eventually jump in for the integrated solution. It's a pretty well done offering, particularly once you find a trainer you like with a good mix of music and class structure.

Re: Peloton Confidentially Files Statement for Proposed IPO

#69

Post by timdorr » Wed, Jun 05, 2019, 6:17 PM UTC

spyspy wrote: post #6

codeulike wrote: post #2

When I see Peloton now, I always think of this twitter thread that critiques their adverts https://twitter.com/clueheywood/status/1089699762331217920

My sides. I have friends working there that have tried getting me to apply. Glassdoor reviews indicated their backend interview is unnecessarily difficult and I have little faith in their business model. How many people are willing to spend thousands on an exercise bike? Let alone one that requires a $40/month subscription? It feels the same as Blue Apron - the market is people rich and lazy enough that don't want do…

> How many people are willing to spend thousands on an exercise bike?

Apparently, somewhere around 400,000: https://secondmeasure.com/datapoints/peloton-subscriptions-d...

Re: Peloton Confidentially Files Statement for Proposed IPO

#70

Post by jmull » Wed, Jun 05, 2019, 6:18 PM UTC

wlesieutre wrote: post #56

__comrade__ wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You burn 1900 calories running 2/3 of a marathon. I hardly think you were able to achieve that in an hour playing a VR game.

More than two hours. Looking at the Runner's World calculator for a comparison: Inputs are: 1 mile, 11:30 minutes/mile, 210 lbs weight Gives back 159 calories for a 1 mile run, 829 calories per hour. My Beat Saber workouts yesterday tally up at 830 calories per hour and the amount of sweating felt in the ballpark of running an 11 minute mile. I don't think the watch's estimates are that outlandish. https://www.runner…

It’s certainly possible to burn 800+ calories per hour for a couple hours. Normal, actually, for someone doing athletic training. (E.g., anyone training semi-seriously for any kind road race is doing this at least once a week.)

But I’d pretty surprised if you did it without training to build up to it. You could have developed the aerobic capacity through other activities, but I’d have thought various muscles would be unprepared and would be giving you rather strong pain signals. If you nevertheless pushed through that, I’d think you’d be SORE AF today and barely able to move.

Or maybe your activity confused the calorie model your Apple Watch uses.

Not that it isn’t great exercise.