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Europe says 737 Max won't fly until it completes it own design review

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Re: Europe says 737 Max won't fly until it completes it own design review

#111

Post by thinkloop »

s_dev wrote: post #65
radcon wrote: post #40

Is anyone else extremely reluctant to fly on a Boeing plane after this? A lot of people say "It's no big deal, they just need to update the MCAS software" , but I see this entire situation as a sign of much deeper issues at Boeing, issues that can't be fixed with a simple software update and could affect every plane they make.

Flying -- even accounting for all the 737 Max crashes is still statistically by far the safest form of travel per unit of distance travelled -- the 737 Max is a blip just like 9/11.

Unit of distance is not the correct measure to use for safety because it skews heavily towards speed. The fastest means of transport will almost always look the safest. Consider if planes doubled their speed overnight (which they can, it's just a matter of gas/costs) and crashes remained the same - did they instantly become twice as safe? Definitely not, there is still the fixed risks of takeoff, landing, and being in the air for even a second, etc. The additional miles are almost free in terms of risk, but eat away a lot at the risk metric.

The better measure is time: deaths per hour traveled. And by that measure buses are actually safest, followed by rail, then air [1][2]. Cars are still 4x more dangerous, but that's much less stark than the common wisdom. And even that is misleading because with cars specifically, there is much more variability of drivers, car quality, maintenance, etc. If you are sober, responsible, educated, with a well maintained car, etc. your odds are significantly lower. Think drunk drivers who only kill themselves in accidents (this is a significant portion of car deaths).

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviation_safety

[2] http://www.ijhssnet.com/journals/Vol_5_No_7_1_July_2015/15.p...

Re: Europe says 737 Max won't fly until it completes it own design review

#112

Post by fmajid »

bilbo0s wrote: post #55
jpkeisala wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think they will need to go easy on this in order to avoid White House getting involved.

To be honest, if the American government got involved to protect Boeing, that would be even worse for Boeing, and nearly fatal to the authoritative status of the FAA. It would pretty much confirm what most air travelers are thinking. That the US government cares a good deal more about keeping Boeing afloat than it cares about our safety. At the same time, Boeing and the FAA have already taken pretty big hits. So game…

I'm no Trump fan but he actually did the right thing in this case (force the grounding of the MAX when the FAA was still in denial).

Re: Europe says 737 Max won't fly until it completes it own design review

#113

Post by antongribok »

ulfw wrote: post #63
wycy wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would be extremely hesitant to ever fly on a 737 MAX again because, even when MCAS is fixed, software is being used to fix a fundamental physics problem. I'd fly on other Boeing planes without worry, though.

The fix for the 787s Lithium battery problems wasn't a whole lot better. Remember those exploding left and right and the 787 fleet grounded? The fix wasn't to reengineer the large amount of electrical systems, lack of bleed air or use of different batteries. The fix was to put them in a stronger container with a hole in it so they can vent outside when they inevitably blow up again. That has worked well. So far. Kind…

That's not exactly true as per your link. They did make changes to the battery, as well as outside the battery.

Re: Europe says 737 Max won't fly until it completes it own design review

#114

Post by robjan »

ubermonkey wrote: post #109
radcon wrote: post #40

Is anyone else extremely reluctant to fly on a Boeing plane after this? A lot of people say "It's no big deal, they just need to update the MCAS software" , but I see this entire situation as a sign of much deeper issues at Boeing, issues that can't be fixed with a simple software update and could affect every plane they make.

I think you're absolutely right. The approach on the MAX is horrifying. But airplane tech moves kind of slowly, no? Non-MAX 737s can't really change, and so are as safe today as they were 6 month or 6 years ago. The MAX debacle makes me SUPER SUPER leery of any new airframe, though.

The problem with the MAX was that it's a new revision of an ancient airframe. A completely new design would go through way more testing than did the MAX.

Re: Europe says 737 Max won't fly until it completes it own design review

#115

Post by retSava »

radcon wrote: post #40

Is anyone else extremely reluctant to fly on a Boeing plane after this? A lot of people say "It's no big deal, they just need to update the MCAS software" , but I see this entire situation as a sign of much deeper issues at Boeing, issues that can't be fixed with a simple software update and could affect every plane they make.

The MCAS will likely be fixed in a way that makes it reliable and dependable. Boeing wouldn't dare anything else since there are a lot of eyes on them and how they handle this now.

What worries me is not the MCAS (now), but what else might be lurking under the surface that Boeing pretends is not a problem.

I don't feel confident that Boeing would accept the cost of grounding the fleet the next time something serious-but-not-yet-crashing shows up. It's clear that to Boeing, their numbers are more important than lives.

Re: Europe says 737 Max won't fly until it completes it own design review

#116

Post by foldr »

danharaj wrote: post #79
foldr wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not the case. The 737 MAX has different handling characteristics to a regular 737, but there is nothing inherently unsafe about those handling characteristics. The purpose of MCAS was just to prevent the need for pilots to recertify by masking the difference.

Without MCAS a MAX has flight characteristics that would not pass FAA certification.

I don't believe that's true. What's your source?

Re: Europe says 737 Max won't fly until it completes it own design review

#117

Post by alkonaut »

ulfw wrote: post #101
alkonaut wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll have no problem flying in one as soon as the relevant authorities deem it safe enough. If I don't trust relevant authorities on what is safe and what isn't - why would I trust them when they say the next plane is safe? Also, since you can't know which flights are using which planes (usually), many carriers use thes planes interchangably with non-MAX (737-800s), and you can't use the choice of plane as a reason t…

The same "authorities" who told you before they were safe to fly? You have so much believe in authorities that even if proven they didn't do their job, you still trust in them with your life?

Yes, those authorities. Either I trust them and fly (ever) or I don't and you never fly. There is no middle ground here. If you fly on the A350 which is also new - you trust the FAA/EASA that they are safe to fly. If I don't trust FAA/EASA, I can never fly the new A350 either. In fact I can't fly on any plane, unless I adopt some strategy of only flying ones that have an established safety record (i.e. old planes). But even with those, I trust the authorities who ensure the training of the pilots is OK, that ATC works etc. They are the same authorities...

They might not always do their job the way I want them to, but there are no other authorities in this case to go to for a second opinion.

Re: Europe says 737 Max won't fly until it completes it own design review

#118

Post by ShinTakuya »

I mean while I'm all for continuing to punish Boeing for their blatant disregard for human lives, you could also say it's in the best interest of the EU to attack Boeing in a way that doesn't seem hostile on a political level since it indirectly benefits Airbus.

Re: Europe says 737 Max won't fly until it completes it own design review

#120

Post by hackinthebochs »

thinkloop wrote: post #111
s_dev wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Flying -- even accounting for all the 737 Max crashes is still statistically by far the safest form of travel per unit of distance travelled -- the 737 Max is a blip just like 9/11.

Unit of distance is not the correct measure to use for safety because it skews heavily towards speed. The fastest means of transport will almost always look the safest. Consider if planes doubled their speed overnight (which they can, it's just a matter of gas/costs) and crashes remained the same - did they instantly become twice as safe? Definitely not, there is still the fixed risks of takeoff, landing, and being i…

Well put. I've always felt an intuitive unease about that "safest per unit traveled" metric but wasn't able to articulate the problem as clearly as you did.
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