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Amazon rolls out machines that pack orders and replace jobs

reuters.com

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Re: Amazon rolls out machines that pack orders and replace jobs

#141

Post by Ajedi32 »

SolaceQuantum wrote: post #122
Ajedi32 wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Funding 1$ to the wealthy returns 0.7$ to the economy. So going solely by that figure, as long as the gain in efficiency from automating a job is > 42% it's a net positive for the economy? And that's even _if_ you assume 100% of the savings goes directly into the company owner's pockets and isn't simply being re-invested somewhere else.

> So going solely by that figure, as long as the gain in efficiency from automating a job is > 42% it's a net positive for the economy? No, because 1$ to a poor person is actually 1.12$ returned to the economy. It gets even bigger when you go into 1$ to education. > And that's even _if_ you assume 100% of the savings goes directly into the company owner's pockets and isn't simply being re-invested somewhere else. Wel…

> No, because 1$ to a poor person is actually 1.12$ returned to the economy.

Okay, so >60% then, assuming the average worker at an Amazon warehouse meets your definition of "poor". Still a totally achievable figure.

> Even if you give money to wealthy people

We're not talking about _giving_ money to anyone here, we're talking about automation. Automation means efficiency gains for _Amazon_ (the corporation) not Bezos personally, so you can't just make the lazy assumption that 100% of any savings made by Amazon goes directly into Bezos' pockets (as egypturnash did earlier in this thread).

But even if you do make that ridiculous assumption, _and_ we assume your figures are correct, it still only takes a >60% efficiency gain for the economy to break even on the transaction, correct?

Re: Amazon rolls out machines that pack orders and replace jobs

#142

Post by hef19898 »

sandworm101 wrote: post #35

I'm surprised that Amazon still uses boxes. They have the market power to insist manufacturers comply with amazon-specific packaging requirements. Why not just insist that all products be packaged in postal-compatible packaging? Then the amazon warehouse robot need only slap a label on the product and throw it in the shipping bin. Another answer would be to have products packaged in standard, or at lease square, boxe…

Dropshopping might just turn out to he the biggest missed opportunity for the fulfillment arm of Amazon. Just imagine a company that successfully bridges the gap between any supplier who wants to connect and the consumer using the internet. Imagine Amazon bought or developed Shopify themselves and integrated the POS tech for any shop with their fulfillment and retail tech. Damn, that would be a killer.

In my opinion, the first one to successfully do this on scale will be the next Amazon, just even bigger.

That being said, packaging for customer shipments is inherently different from B2B. The later usually uses some sort of bulk-level packaging for pallets and such. Cheaper for big volumes but unsuitable for B2C. Still, Amazon is pishing Ship-in-own-container (SIOC) wherever possible.

DISCLAIMER: I used to work there.

Re: Amazon rolls out machines that pack orders and replace jobs

#143

Post by atonse »

rytor718 wrote: post #120
atonse wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly the best proposal I've seen for slowing down such automation is to add a tax on these machines. That'll make the cost-benefit equation less obvious. These machines won't pay for themselves in a year and then be practically free. They'll continue to cost a lot. This kind of tax would help slow the progress of such automation to a speed where society can better adjust. And I say this as someone who absolutely…

I was going to (very slightly) disagree, but the idea that society is slower than technology is an angle that needs to be stated out loud a lot more. We can't out pace machines and its a fair reason to tax them for the time being. That said, I don't necessarily believe "society is slow to catch up" should be a long term problem. It should be something the government mandates for x years -- so that it has a timeline t…

Totally agree, that it would be a temporary measure to add some speed bumps.

I first heard this proposal from Bill Gates. Suffice to say he's got a unique view and has probably studied this extensively.

Re: Amazon rolls out machines that pack orders and replace jobs

#144

Post by logicprog »

asdfman123 wrote: post #114
amedvednikov wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

UBI. Then we can be gleeful about more automation.

People need to feel useful to others. Right now, in the US, we fulfill that need through work. Work is an integral part of our culture. If you make a whole swath of the population feel redundant, especially practical, no-nonsense people who are used to having work define who they are, they are not going to adjust well. They are quite different than college-educated hippies who would rather get more education and go s…

I one hundred percent agree with you on what the results would be-- without there being repercussions for not persevering with anything, and with all bad choices safely having the corners rounded off by UBI, most people won't do anything much. And as much as they feel like they don't want to do work now, this lack of any motivation from outside themselves will have a deleterious effect on people. I mean, picture what the average person does with their free time! Watch TV, scroll Twitter, stuff like that. And they're constantly complaining about how much they regret not using their time wisely and blaming Netflix for eating their time, etc. Now imagine if no one had to do anything, if you totally failed at something or just didn't bother to do anything, the government would prop you up. Imagine the social issues that would bring. Imagine the difficulty.

Where I disagree with you, however, is the assumption that finding life meaning and purpose and a sense of usefulness and competency and enjoyment out of work is a thing limited to specifically today's culture, a thing that we can just change. For one, most people don't have the introspection and willpower to self-actualize and create their own meaning in life. This is a huge reason we have depression and nihilism and existential dispair. Two, we have stories from history and interactions from other cultures that show that finding meaning in work holds true for them as well.

Re: Amazon rolls out machines that pack orders and replace jobs

#145

Post by dragonwriter »

xxs wrote: post #109
asdfman123 wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think HN's tune would be quite different if someone came up with a technology that eliminated half of all programming jobs. Not quite so many people would be saying, "This is great! I for one look forward to technological advancement." I do think the future should involve more automation, I just think we should be -- I dunno, a little less gleeful about it and think about the people it's impacting.

"eliminated half of all programming jobs" Tools to improve speed of development have existed for ages, twice the speed = twice less developers in a blunt way. (that includes even programming languages) Personally I'd consider it an improvement - if I job can be automated, it should be.

> twice the speed = twice less developers in a blunt way

I think you mean half fewer developers, not “twice less”, but...

No, twice the speed means twice the value produced per unit labor, which means at the same labor price level, more, not fewer, programmers will be hired (or, at constant employment level, pay should increase); the actual result is some increase in pay and some increase in employment.

Technology that provides output multipliers on a job are different than technology that replaces the function of workers at lower cost.

Re: Amazon rolls out machines that pack orders and replace jobs

#146

Post by Fricken »

onion2k wrote: post #55
Ajedi32 wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And from there?

Is this where you try to claim trickle down economics works despite the top 20% of people owning more than 80% of the financial assets? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wealth_inequality_in_the_Unite...

'trickle down' implies a watershed, where water/wealth collects in small tributaries that come together to form a main River where wealth/water is most concentrated.

Actual trickle down economics is trickle up economics, so no shit it doesn't work. Let's just dump a bunch of water here at the mouth of the Amazon and watch it flow up into the Andes.

Re: Amazon rolls out machines that pack orders and replace jobs

#147

Post by EugeneOZ »

lm28469 wrote: post #125
EugeneOZ wrote: post #107

Surprised to find so many modern Luddites in comments. History lessons says that new professions will appear.

But that's the whole point though. We're creating bs jobs to replace the bs jobs we automated. What's our goal as a society ? Shouldn't we think about working less, better spreading wealth, figuring out a plan so people don't have to work multiple jobs to barely survive ? Right now almost everywhere in the world we're heading for longer work week and increased retirement age. So much for "automation will deliver us f…

> better spreading wealth

I grew up in a country where communism has won - I know for sure that it's an utopia. I really hate communists, socialists and other imbeciles who believe that people/business should give their money to lazy people just to make everybody "equal". No, people are not equal - somebody is smarter, somebody works more, somebody is a great artist, somebody is just a lazy alcoholic.

So no, we should not think about "spreading" wealth, we should think how to train people for new skills/professions, required by the market.

Re: Amazon rolls out machines that pack orders and replace jobs

#148

Post by bunderbunder »

asdfman123 wrote: post #62
CodeMage wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, it's good news, just not for the people you're thinking of. Think about people who work in Amazon warehouses despite those conditions. Why do they do that? Because the alternatives are worse. This just removes these jobs and leaves them to face those alternatives.

I think HN's tune would be quite different if someone came up with a technology that eliminated half of all programming jobs. Not quite so many people would be saying, "This is great! I for one look forward to technological advancement." I do think the future should involve more automation, I just think we should be -- I dunno, a little less gleeful about it and think about the people it's impacting.

Another angle to what you're describing is that a huge percentage of programmers' jobs serve to eliminate other jobs. That's been the case for newer technologies since at least the beginning of the industrial revolution.

That said, the long term effect hasn't been to reduce jobs. Ultimately, not paying someone to do X ends up also creating jobs by freeing up money to pay someone to do Y.

Obviously that's small solace for someone who lost their job and isn't finding a new one. But we can frame the story in different ways that allow us to find different places to place the blame, and different ways to find alternative solutions. I personally don't like blaming technology because that implies that the best solution is to slow or halt the development of any technology that automates or eliminates the need for things that could be done by humans. As a human who enjoys eating out at restaurants and having access to high-quality medical care, and does not enjoy mowing wheat with a scythe and re-thatching his own roof, I'm not fond of that framing. As someone who dislikes memes that assume that learning is something that ends in your 20s, or that the world is teeming with people who have 6 years' experience in 3 year old technologies, I'm much more interested in looking for framings that look to improve everyone's access to new jobs instead of trying to preserve the old ones.

Re: Amazon rolls out machines that pack orders and replace jobs

#149

Post by thebigspacefuck »

everyone wrote: post #69

The fact that rising automation is an issue bothers me. Automation is miraculous! Its has steadily been removing the necessity for humans to engage in drudge work. The solution is simple and obvious. Most people no longer need to work. This has probably been true for decades and is only becoming moreso. With automation, a small number of people can provide the food / water / electricity / etc. for 1000's. Everyone sh…

It would be great if the automation were in the hands of individuals. you need to farm? Invest in an automated tractor, combine, whatever and it will take care of your crops. Now you have free time, food to eat, and can work a second job for anything else. Instead the automation goes in the hands of large corporations and there's no relationship between what the machines produce and what people need to live. An automated boxing machine doesn't build houses or farm food for individuals. There's no more abundance to go around. You could create the relationship by taxing machines or taxing the wealthy that own them and spending that money on food and housing, but maybe people don't want to live off food stamps in government housing. Then you have economics that come into play. Are people going to have more kids since they get more food and bigger houses? Will there be an increase in crime? Will prices increase now that everyone can afford food? I'm optimistic, but it will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Re: Amazon rolls out machines that pack orders and replace jobs

#150

Post by noonespecial »

lm28469 wrote: post #125
EugeneOZ wrote: post #107

Surprised to find so many modern Luddites in comments. History lessons says that new professions will appear.

But that's the whole point though. We're creating bs jobs to replace the bs jobs we automated. What's our goal as a society ? Shouldn't we think about working less, better spreading wealth, figuring out a plan so people don't have to work multiple jobs to barely survive ? Right now almost everywhere in the world we're heading for longer work week and increased retirement age. So much for "automation will deliver us f…

As long as we keep setting the cost of housing to "everything you've got" and the cost of health care to "everything you're gonna have", it won't matter how much new productivity we create.
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