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Uber opens at $42 per share

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Re: Uber opens at $42 per share

#381

Post by lkbm »

unreal37 wrote: post #354
lkbm wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When Uber and Lyft left Austin, there were lots of alternatives that had existed or popped up to fill the space. I tried to use one or two of those alternatives. Setup was a pain and I ended up taking a cab. I have at least one coworker who couldn't get a ride because he was in South Austin. Additionally. if your company is only in one city, visitors have to know about, install, and setup a new app just so they can…

Uber and Lyft have "network effects"? How? Explain that. I couldn't tell you what car sharing service any of my friends use. When I was in Malta earlier this year, there was no Uber. I downloaded an app called Taxify while sitting at a cafe, and called a car from it. It's not a huge barrier to download and install another app, even when trying to call a car.

> Uber and Lyft have "network effects"? > I couldn't tell you what car sharing service any of my friends use.

It doesn't matter if you know who uses it. It only matters that there are. People are more willing to drive for it if there are plenty of users. If there are more drivers, there's more likely to be one nearby when you request a ride, so service is better. Better service makes for more riders. More riders makes it more worthwhile to be a driver. Positive feedback loop based on network size = network effect.

> I downloaded an app called Taxify while sitting at a cafe, and called a car from it. It's not a huge barrier to download and install another app, even when trying to call a car.

You know what's even less of a barrier? Not having to download and install another app.

Maybe it's not a huge barrier to you, but you're a single data point. You're talking to a second data point that's telling you that if I have a ride-hailing app on my phone that works, I will choose it before I install another app, every time.

My belief is that most people will take the path of least resistance, just like I do. How confident are you that they won't?

Re: Uber opens at $42 per share

#382

Post by lkbm »

SOLAR_FIELDS wrote: post #321
lkbm wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When Uber and Lyft left Austin, there were lots of alternatives that had existed or popped up to fill the space. I tried to use one or two of those alternatives. Setup was a pain and I ended up taking a cab. I have at least one coworker who couldn't get a ride because he was in South Austin. Additionally. if your company is only in one city, visitors have to know about, install, and setup a new app just so they can…

Really? I’ve mentioned it on here before but I used Fasten as a rider pretty religiously in Austin whenever Uber and Lyft left and it was just as easy to set up and hail rides as with Uber and Lyft. I switched back to Lyft when they came back only because the rides subsidized by VC money ended up being cheaper but if they were same price I would happily switch back to some other software. Regarding your second point…

I think Fasten declined my card. I then tried FARE, but it wasn't working either for some reason, and I was in a hurry, so instead got a cab instead (which I paid for with the card Fasten didn't like).

I hadn't expected to be in DC--My connecting flight was cancelled, so I needed a ride to the bus station. But I think if it had been planned, I would have Googled "is Lyft in DC?" and seen that I was all set.

Maybe I could save a few bucks by installing an alternative service, but it wasn't worth it to me to bother. (On the other hand, my price insensitivity is largely because I only take a Lyft/Uber about six times a year, so they might lose heavy users more quickly.)

Re: Uber opens at $42 per share

#383

Post by Blackthorn »

akchin wrote: post #267
intuitionist wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you’re joining a $60 billion company with thousands of employees expecting rocket-ship growth, that’s kind of on you, I think. You wouldn’t expect that from a public company; why would you from a similarly sized company that just happens to be pre-IPO?

It shouldn't matter a lot since I am 99% sure that they were issuing RSUs at that time and not options. So the strike price based on 3-years ago valuation is not relevant. Also, I am sure the number of RSUs you got at Uber should have been more than the RSUs at FAANG, to compensate for some of the risks. Now, if an individual Uber employee came out ahead, vs. having joined a FAANG really depends on the offers they ha…

It matters a ton. You get your rsu grant sized based on the stock price at the time of the grant, just like options. If that price goes up, you make money... Just like options.

Re: Uber opens at $42 per share

#386

Post by el_benhameen »

foobarian wrote: post #378
busymom0 wrote: post #304

There's way too many comments in this thread comparing Uber's non-profitability to Amazon's which I think is quite silly. Amazon lost $2.8 billion over its first 17 quarters while Uber lost $4.5 billion in 2017 alone. Also comparing Uber to Facebook is quite silly too. Facebook had a lot more users than Uber but they are also different types of users. One is a free user with hope for targeted advertisement (in which…

> Also advertisement has huge margins with not much cost from Facebook's pov but ride sharing logistics is completely different with very little margin where the driver needs to get paid Why is this? In both cases it seems the cost is paying a bunch of servers and engineers to run a website. So why is Facebook seemingly more efficient?

Uber also has drivers to pay. Facebook doesn't. Thus, the margin.

Re: Uber opens at $42 per share

#387

Post by gojomo »

warp_factor wrote: post #327
gojomo wrote: post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Define 'dramatically', and by when you expect this will happen, and I'll offer you odds as well!

In 5 years I expect the MarketCap to be around 10B$ max. If Self Driving cars are a thing then even less than that. their customer base will be richer//business people ready to pay higher sustainable prices for rides.

I'd be happy to bet you $100 that on May 10, 2024, Uber has a market cap higher than $10B. Let me know.

Re: Uber opens at $42 per share

#388

Post by busymom0 »

foobarian wrote: post #378
busymom0 wrote: post #304

There's way too many comments in this thread comparing Uber's non-profitability to Amazon's which I think is quite silly. Amazon lost $2.8 billion over its first 17 quarters while Uber lost $4.5 billion in 2017 alone. Also comparing Uber to Facebook is quite silly too. Facebook had a lot more users than Uber but they are also different types of users. One is a free user with hope for targeted advertisement (in which…

> Also advertisement has huge margins with not much cost from Facebook's pov but ride sharing logistics is completely different with very little margin where the driver needs to get paid Why is this? In both cases it seems the cost is paying a bunch of servers and engineers to run a website. So why is Facebook seemingly more efficient?

Mostly because Uber needs to pay the drivers and they can't really take more than 20-25% cut. Drivers are already complaining that Uber should take less as they are barely making much money especially as there are now a lot of drivers.

Re: Uber opens at $42 per share

#389

Post by busymom0 »

mirajshah wrote: post #376
busymom0 wrote: post #304

There's way too many comments in this thread comparing Uber's non-profitability to Amazon's which I think is quite silly. Amazon lost $2.8 billion over its first 17 quarters while Uber lost $4.5 billion in 2017 alone. Also comparing Uber to Facebook is quite silly too. Facebook had a lot more users than Uber but they are also different types of users. One is a free user with hope for targeted advertisement (in which…

Don't you have to adjust Amazon's 2.8 billion for inflation?

Should we though? Technology was far inferior back then and it would be much cheaper for amazon to achieve the same thing as they back in the day if they had today's technology. Amazon also has a lot more gears moving around in their logistics as compared to Uber.

Re: Uber opens at $42 per share

#390

Post by ulfw »

acchow wrote: post #332
JMTQp8lwXL wrote: post #329

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does Uber even want to encourage people to take more rides if each single one is at a loss? It's hard to envision the strategy going forward.

Yes, they want to eat up the whole market until all the competitors die. Then they can raise prices.

And then new competitors will spring up who can undermine those prices. There is absolutely nothing unique about what Uber does to keep people as customers.
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