Up to one million species are on the verge of extinction, U.N. panel says • Hacker News Board

Re: Up to one million species are on the verge of extinction, U.N. panel says

#451

Post by TeMPOraL » Mon, May 06, 2019, 10:41 PM UTC

crispinb wrote: post #442

TeMPOraL wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We could perhaps 3 or 4 decades ago have made a collective decision to gradually reduce consumption and allow our home to survive in decent enough shape to sustain us. One thing we know about humans is that, as a species, we were never and are not currently capable of making such collective decisions or otherwise coordinating at this scale. This is probably the root of most problems we have, except death and diseas…

> One thing we know about humans is that, as a species, we were never and are not currently capable of making such collective decisions I'm pretty sceptical re claims of knowledge about complex systems, and human ecology is about as complex as systems get. So I think your statement is way overconfident. Having said that, if I had to make a bet on whether or not we'll make the necessary decisions given how late in the…

> I'm pretty sceptical re claims of knowledge about complex systems, and human ecology is about as complex as systems get. So I think your statement is way overconfident.

Complex behaviour of systems often arises out of simple rules. Game theory is not always well applicable, but here it provides some simple models that explain this problem very well: multiple people forgoing individual gains in order to cooperate at getting bigger gains is a very unstable state that can be quickly destroyed by free-riders, who defect in order to reap both individual and group gains. The very awareness of this dynamic, which is something we all have as intuition even if we can't put it in "mathy" words, is enough to severely curtail the ability to cooperate. Looking through this lens, you can discover that of cultural customs and social pressures around individual behavior are really mechanisms that deter and punish defection and strive to establish an environment in which cooperation is easier.

Scott Alexander explored this topic far better than I ever could: https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/07/30/meditations-on-moloch/.

Re: Up to one million species are on the verge of extinction, U.N. panel says

#452

Post by lm28469 » Mon, May 06, 2019, 10:43 PM UTC

komali2 wrote: post #447

andbberger wrote: post #346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nah man, just eat the plants those animals are eating. You can't get away from the 10x energetic penalty.

But the animals strip out the fiber/carbs and over time convert it into efficient stores of protein/fat. I need ~140g protein a day to perform in the gym, I don't really want to get that from beans and be chew through 3,500 calories of carbohydrates to get to that protein.

"Hey guys I'm all for saving the world and stuff but I have to beat my squat PR so it doesn't apply to me because chewing beans is annoying compared to eating chicken"

This is exactly why we're doomed. Everybody wants to "save the world", everybody knows what to do, nobody does it because it's incompatible with our current self destructing life style.

No you don't >need> At the heart of capitalism is a vast and scarcely examined assumption: you are entitled to as great a share of the world’s resources as your money can buy. You can purchase as much land, as much atmospheric space, as many minerals, as much meat and fish as you can afford, regardless of who might be deprived. If you can pay for them, you can own entire mountain ranges and fertile plains. You can burn as much fuel as you like. Every pound or dollar secures a certain right over the world’s natural wealth.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfr...

Re: Up to one million species are on the verge of extinction, U.N. panel says

#453

Post by komali2 » Mon, May 06, 2019, 11:02 PM UTC

lm28469 wrote: post #452

komali2 wrote: post #447

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the animals strip out the fiber/carbs and over time convert it into efficient stores of protein/fat. I need ~140g protein a day to perform in the gym, I don't really want to get that from beans and be chew through 3,500 calories of carbohydrates to get to that protein.

"Hey guys I'm all for saving the world and stuff but I have to beat my squat PR so it doesn't apply to me because chewing beans is annoying compared to eating chicken" This is exactly why we're doomed. Everybody wants to "save the world", everybody knows what to do, nobody does it because it's incompatible with our current self destructing life style. No you don't >need > At the heart of capitalism is a vast and scar…

I sympathize with the environmentalist cause, because I am an environmentalist.

I listened to a podcast by Dan Harmon once, where he was talking about a fictional protest at Berkeley, with antifa on one side and nazis on the other. One of the Berkeley protesters in the skit says "While I don't support almost any Republican principles, I actually do think I should be allowed to own a gun." The Berkeley students, enraged, push him to the nazi side.

I've also heard this called "fallacy of the pure movement." There's lots of words for it, but the basic idea is someone alienates all but the True Believers from their cause.

In your mind, I must be a vegan to be a true environmentalist. There is No Good Reason to eat meat. A bit silly, there are plenty of Good Reasons to eat meat. I just named one. Another is culture - isn't a tribe of fisherman that have been fishing for 2,000 years entitled to continue to pass down their recipes for cooking fish to future generations?

Kinda moot though, because the dangerous thing you're opening yourself up to here is a retort of raw values - when was the last time you took a flight? How DARE you? Used a car? Why didn't you spend 2 hours biking instead? How DARE you not sacrifice every centimeter of your well being for the environmentalist cause?

There is no True Believer. Not even you are the True Environmentalist. Accusing me of not being True doesn't help.

Re: Up to one million species are on the verge of extinction, U.N. panel says

#454

Post by wonderwonder » Mon, May 06, 2019, 11:03 PM UTC

mrhappyunhappy wrote: post #436

wonderwonder wrote: post #395

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would argue that the increase in anxiety is due to the growing wealth gap. Compounding that is the fact that those in control are actively working on maintaining that gap and will allow nothing to stand in the way, including the environment. The gap is growing worse and will continue to do so and that relentless pursuit of wealth at the top and the hopelessness of those in the middle is making the environment worse…

Except, those “rewarded” will suffer the same fate as the rest. This isn’t a Hollywood story, there is no off-planet settlement and won’t be before it’s too late for humanity. I think people underestimate just how fast the shits gonna hit the fan. My guess is my kids will not want to have kids given the environment of their lifetime.

"I can't help it, it's my nature" said the scorpion to the frog.

Re: Up to one million species are on the verge of extinction, U.N. panel says

#455

Post by njarboe » Mon, May 06, 2019, 11:07 PM UTC

pvaldes wrote: post #414

To put things in context; If we wipe from the planet ALL vascular plants, all flowers and trees and ALL vertebrates, fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals, the full pack, plus SIX major phylums of invertebrates including all molluscs, snails, clams and squids, ALL corals and jellyfishes, ALL starfishes and sea urchins, ALL sponges, ALL flatworms, parasites and free living, and every one tunicate described b…

Or about the estimated number of beetle species[1]. Not that I don't like beetles.

[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beetle#Distribution_and_divers...

Edit:Link to the Assessment Reports this article discusses [2].

[2]https://www.ipbes.net/assessment-reports

Re: Up to one million species are on the verge of extinction, U.N. panel says

#456

Post by crispinb » Mon, May 06, 2019, 11:08 PM UTC

TeMPOraL wrote: post #451

crispinb wrote: post #442

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> One thing we know about humans is that, as a species, we were never and are not currently capable of making such collective decisions I'm pretty sceptical re claims of knowledge about complex systems, and human ecology is about as complex as systems get. So I think your statement is way overconfident. Having said that, if I had to make a bet on whether or not we'll make the necessary decisions given how late in the…

> I'm pretty sceptical re claims of knowledge about complex systems, and human ecology is about as complex as systems get. So I think your statement is way overconfident. Complex behaviour of systems often arises out of simple rules. Game theory is not always well applicable, but here it provides some simple models that explain this problem very well: multiple people forgoing individual gains in order to cooperate at…

I wasn't disputing the plausibility, rather the knowledge. You can't intuit your way to rationally justifiable prediction of future global events by thinking through a few toy models. Even predictions far better founded on reams of real empirical evidence are notoriously shaky (see Philip Tetlock's work amongst others).

Your guesses happen to be guesses I share. But they're just guesses.

Re: Up to one million species are on the verge of extinction, U.N. panel says

#457

Post by CobrastanJorji » Mon, May 06, 2019, 11:08 PM UTC

pvaldes wrote: post #448

spurgu wrote: post #435

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's just... crazy.

Can turn crazier. Selecting carefully and with "1 million of nethack scrolls of genocide" we could probably wipe all extant life beings known heavier than 1 Kg, except fungus, macroalgae... and not much more. I hope that this article is wrong. If not, one million of species is a lot of biodiversity about to jump by the clift in the next ten or twenty years.

Not if you begin by blessing the scrolls.

Re: Up to one million species are on the verge of extinction, U.N. panel says

#458

Post by firethief » Mon, May 06, 2019, 11:12 PM UTC

holoduke wrote: post #324

Unpopular to say, but people as a group will not change. it won't just happen. We will destroy part of earth and as a consequence we will engineer a fix for it. It is maybe an unfortunate thing. But that's how we people work. We mess up first and clean after. It's quite unrealistic to expect the world to look the same in 100 years from now. We will slowly take control over every single square feet on this planet. Tha…

People as individuals don't change, but people as a group change deeply and rapidly. Our societies looked very different 100 years ago, and the rate of change has never been higher

Re: Up to one million species are on the verge of extinction, U.N. panel says

#459

Post by jniedrauer » Mon, May 06, 2019, 11:15 PM UTC

uhtred wrote: post #411

jniedrauer wrote: post #327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If someone is still eating eggs, dairy and fish they are not 95% of the way to being vegan. 95% is obviously not a real number, but it's not far off when you actually look at the environmental impact of different foods[0] > And cost? What makes you think being vegan is more expensive than eating animal products? I should specify that being vegan and remaining healthy is more expensive than eating animal products. Y…

If someone is pesco-vegetarian and eating a lot of dairy, especially cheese, and fish, then their environmental footprint would be way higher than someone (a vegan) who is not eating those things. The NY times article you linked shows just that.

You'll notice that I didn't say "your environmental impact will automatically be reduced to near that of a vegan diet by eating a pesco-vegetarian diet."

Changing to a new category of diet does not absolve you of the need to make responsible decisions. You could technically be a very wasteful vegan and have a higher carbon footprint than an omnivore. You could also be a responsible human being and eat a conservative vegetarian diet that is roughly equivalent to a vegan diet but much easier to execute.

Re: Up to one million species are on the verge of extinction, U.N. panel says

#460

Post by unicornporn » Mon, May 06, 2019, 11:15 PM UTC

Balgair wrote: post #336

kilroy123 wrote: post #120

I have a theory, and I have no evidence to back this theory up. The increases in anxiety in the general public over the last decade or so is in large part to people knowing we're on an unsustainable path. We're all collectively marching towards the edge of the cliff to jump off together. More people than ever have anxiety because we subconsciously (or consciously) know this. We're unsustainable with how we pollute an…

Read the late Dr. Hans Rosling's Factfullness . By many measures, the world is getting much much better. Try testing yourself to see what you know, are you smarter than a chimp?: http://forms.gapminder.org/s3/test-2018

Better and better? A comment on Hans Rosling

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OoIcsj9ysvs