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Tesla sued in wrongful death lawsuit that alleges Autopilot caused crash

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Re: Tesla sued in wrongful death lawsuit that alleges Autopilot caused crash

#421

Tesla's blog post: https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/blog/update-last-week’s-accident the driver’s hands were not detected on the wheel for six seconds prior to the collision. The driver had about five seconds and 150 meters of unobstructed view of the concrete divider Looks like sensors failed to see concrete divider in nice sunny weather and car slammed in to it at 70mph. Driver was obviously over confident on system's a…

So, Tesla's sensors failed to detect a concrete barrier and failed to detect he driver’s hands on the wheel, but we’re supposed to assume that the first which was clearly a manufacturing defect was not responsible for the crash because of the second which, we are to presume, must have accurately reflected reality.

(Since California uses comparative fault in these kinds of cases, legally this would seem to at best reduce but not actually eliminate Tesla's liability, even were a jury to be convinced by it.)

> If you are driving a Tesla equipped with Autopilot hardware, you are 3.7 times less likely to be involved in a fatal accident.

Which I suspect says nothing about the vehicles (much less autopilot hardware specifically, and even less the autopilot function), and everything about the age demographics of Tesla owners, because age is a significant factor in accident rates, and there are probably disproportionately few teenagers and other very young drivers driving Teslas.

https://aaafoundation.org/rates-motor-vehicle-crashes-injuri...

Re: Tesla sued in wrongful death lawsuit that alleges Autopilot caused crash

#422
post #375

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Driver was obviously over confident I wouldn’t assume that. Videos of this exact scenario prove that the reaction time required is on the order of a few seconds. Everything Tesla says here exaggerates driver culpability, like saying he received “multiple warnings” (15 minutes ago and completely unrelated). Don’t let that hypnotize you into thinking he was being irresponsible here. There may have been other factors…

A big issue is that this can surprise a driver since an update can change the car's behavior.

Does it stand to reason that not only can an update change the cars behaviour, but that an update is likely to change the car’s behaviour.

Re: Tesla sued in wrongful death lawsuit that alleges Autopilot caused crash

#423

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The problem with the no hands-on-steering-wheel detection claim Tesla keeps bringing up I don't get why it matters. Why is Tesla's responsibility greater or lesser based on the position of the driver's hands? The driver could have had one hand on the wheel while mousing around on a laptop with the other. Or he could have been intensely focused on the road ahead with his hands resting on his legs, inches away from t…

It's driver responsibility to drive the car and pay attention to the road.

By representing the car to come with an auto driver, they implicitly take on that responsibility.

Re: Tesla sued in wrongful death lawsuit that alleges Autopilot caused crash

#424

Tesla's blog post: https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/blog/update-last-week’s-accident the driver’s hands were not detected on the wheel for six seconds prior to the collision. The driver had about five seconds and 150 meters of unobstructed view of the concrete divider Looks like sensors failed to see concrete divider in nice sunny weather and car slammed in to it at 70mph. Driver was obviously over confident on system's a…

You're assuming "failed to detect hands" means that his hands were not on the wheel, which is 100% false.

Tesla's have detection is extremely rudimentary and requires the driver to apply torque to the wheel on order to be "detected". You could be grasping the wheel hard enough to turn coal into diamonds and it STILL wouldn't detect your hands unless you move the wheel slightly.

Re: Tesla sued in wrongful death lawsuit that alleges Autopilot caused crash

#425

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Radar seems to work pretty damn well for the adaptive cruise control and autonomous emergency braking installed in hundreds of models of cars made over the past 5+ years. If autonomous systems needs more redundancy, the solution is to keep adding more cameras. The other sensor which I think is important is data captured by cars in that fleet. This is sort of what's known as "HD maps" but fully automated and based pur…

> autonomous emergency braking I've just gotten rid of a car that did that and that was one of the contributing factors. That system was so totally unreliable that it almost caused two accidents in 20K km when otherwise nothing would have happened. In both cases there were obstacles on the side of the road that gave a return (bridge supports/railing and a pretty sturdy billboard frame) to the radar that caused it to…

Sadly, not all ACC and CAS deployments are created equal. Tesla uses a 77ghz RADAR that has 0.1° of accuracy on the azimuth for the far range radar at a beam spread of 6° and 0.2° for 9°. The near RADAR resolves to between 0.3° to 5° for the close one. They can pick out objects at a resolution of 40cm for the long range RADAR and down to 5cm short range. http://www.compotrade.ru/i/pdf/ARS404-21_ARS408-21_en_V1.03....

Not all manufacturers use such high specced RADAR as you can see in this comparison sheet there are cheaper options to pick from that don’t offer anywhere close to this angular accuracy and resolution https://autonomoustuff.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/RADAR-...

The manufacturer is probably using 24ghz RADAR which is legacy technology and is being discontinued due to lower accuracy. There are software tweaks available to reduce false positives for legacy tech but most manufacturers don’t deploy them.

See: https://e2e.ti.com/blogs_/b/behind_the_wheel/archive/2017/10...

Re: Tesla sued in wrongful death lawsuit that alleges Autopilot caused crash

#426

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I specifically said that it should be done on high volume, maintained roads, such as highways and ring roads. It doesn't have to happen overnight, but it could happen gradually. It would serve other purposes too, like guidance for snow plows. It's a 80/20 solution - cover 80% of the travel for 20% of the cost. Solving the problem on highways and high volume roads without cyclists are significantly easier, and would…

> I've travelled by road a fair bit around different countries and I assure you that a lot of high volume maintained roads still fall into the categories I outlined. Moreover, a lot of high volume roads aren't maintained. I honestly don't think you would even get remotely close to covering 80% of the roads for 20% of the cost. I did not say 80% of the road, but 80% of the travel. Most of the kms driven are on highway…

> I did not say 80% of the road, but 80% of the travel. Most of the kms driven are on highways, ring roads, and main roads into larger cities.

I don't think your experiences are typical for most people the world over. For example in the UK, we don't have that many motorways so most of the commutes by cars are along busy "normal" roads or dual carriageways (which are a little like motorways but with frequent junctions like roundabouts that have complex social interactions and thus might need AI to navigate safely anyway. But even there, most people people in the UK don't spend 80% of their drive on dual carriageways - let alone motorways. Instead we have "main roads" which join towns together.

Commuter traffic in the towns in the Netherlands where I've been were more focused on public transport and bicycles than they are cars - though that's not to say they don't also have a heavy motor-vehicle traffic as well.

I remember when I travelled around America thinking how much different attitudes to transport were to the UK and many European countries. I think that's in part because of how much farther away places are in the US. But I'm now drifting into speculation. My point was your observation about travel behaviours isn't globally representative.

> The car will pull over if you don't take over. I fail to see the issue in that. I'm advocating for a system that will autonomously drive where the infrastructure allows, not everywhere. If the system can handle driving at the highway for me for 2 hours, I'll be significantly more fit for driving the last 20 minutes.

Again, motorway driving is the easy part. It's where there is less to observe, low risk of people stepping out in front of you etc. It's where there are fewer road deaths too. And it's also the easiest part of driving to automate. So motorway driving isn't where we should be concentrating our efforts.

> No you do not. They can even remove a small patch of tarmac, "shoot" and entire sewer line a long way and remove patch of tarmac at the destination. That's how they get optical fibers under roads and brick paving without digging it up.

That's not how they do things here :) But in any case I did say that's still only a small part of the overall cost and orchestration needed in deploying cables.

> the current AI approach will either cost many lives

Will it though? That sounds like baseless speculation to me. Any who's to say your solution wouldn't also have glitches that result in a fatality? Ultimately you're still depending on software to make decisions and even robotic lawn mowers aren't without their own odd hiccup.

> Again, a 100% solution is never happening.

I know. That was my point. It's not going to happen and partial coverage isn't good enough.

> But by legislation we can increase adoption slowly, but steadily, until and past the point where we see the many benefits.

50% coverage isn't enough. 90% coverage isn't even enough. 99% coverage isn't even enough but at least you're starting to get close. And how long will that take? Lots of people are still driving 20 year old cars every day. So lets say 10 years to design, develop. 5 years to then standardise the specification. 5 years of bureaucracy to get legislated then another 5 years for the legislation to become effective (because governments like to give a warning). They you need to wait 20 to 30 years until most people have bought a new car. That's 55 years at a minimum and you'd still not cover the thousands of people who like to drive classic cars. So you might as well double that figure. By which point AI has long since caught up with the ability to sense other cars on the road (because we've already mostly solved that specific part of the problem anyway) and at a fraction of the cost.

I've already said that if we were to build infrastructure from scratch then your approach is definitely the way we should progress. But with the way our road infrastructures run at the moment: the vehicles on there, the hazards that can occur, the cost of maintaining the infrastructure and how that's even funded; well your solutions are simple not feasible for the real world.

AI is one of those occasions where worse is better. I completely agree with you that your solutions are better - technically speaking - at solving specific problems related to driverless cars but it doesn't solve all the problems, it's more expensive to implement, can't be deployed everywhere, and yet it will still take longer to roll out than our current tact of developing AI. When you actually look at each problem in detail your proposals fall far short of being workable.

These things aren't built without considerable thought put in them and I seem to recall that early prototypes of driverless cars did work on the principle of having smart cars that communicated with each other and smart roads too. Essentially everything you've been advocating. So it's not like you're suggesting anything that hasn't already been tried. But every lecture and documentary I've watched on this subject come back to the same final conclusion: for self-driving cars to become a thing they need to build the car to drive like a human would because changing the roads and the cars on it is actually a harder problem to solve.

Re: Tesla sued in wrongful death lawsuit that alleges Autopilot caused crash

#427

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> In the US, there is one automotive fatality every 86 million miles across all vehicles from all manufacturers. For Tesla, there is one fatality, including known pedestrian fatalities, every 320 million miles in vehicles equipped with Autopilot hardware. If you are driving a Tesla equipped with Autopilot hardware, you are 3.7 times less likely to be involved in a fatal accident. HN's Contrarian Skeptics Brigade can…

There are indeed statistical issues with the comparison, but I'm not sure it's the one you're pointing out. There's probably enough Tesla miles being driven that we shouldn't worry about the random noise around the mean. One immediate problem with real world stuff like this is selection. How do we know that Tesla is safer because it is built more safely than normal cars, rather than that perhaps people who are more s…

Genuine question.

Did you mean to ignore the fact that Tesla knows the score?

Tesla knows all of those statistics about its drivers, and knows how those numbers compare to other published data.

And they chose to write up the data in the manner they did.

In which configuration of all possible worlds is this ok?

Re: Tesla sued in wrongful death lawsuit that alleges Autopilot caused crash

#428

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm paraphrasing from the last time this was posted, but Tesla's words need to be read very carefully. What they say is: > the driver’s hands were not detected on the wheel for six seconds prior to the collision What Tesla does not say is that the six seconds the driver's hands were not on the wheel was immediately preceding the crash. It is any six seconds before the crash. Admittedly this is a very dark reading, ho…

> I genuinely don't understand This can only make sense if you ignore all the weird, incoherent, inchoate, abusive, and absurd things that come out of Elon Musk.

I'm not even a Musk fan, but have you got refs for these? Worst I've seen is smoking a joint and misleading about having an investor they didn't have. I believe his opinion that Teslas only needing cameras bc that's all humans use to drive is incorrect but honest. I don't think he's mean, I think he's overly, conveniently idealistic to a point which needs to be corrected.

Re: Tesla sued in wrongful death lawsuit that alleges Autopilot caused crash

#429
post #350

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So why call it 'autopilot'? Seems like bullshit marketing to me. The first association we make when we hear that term is hands-off, not 'advanced cruise control'. They're specifically using that terminology to sell their products and now they're paying the price.

In an airplane, autopilot still requires the pilot to pay attention.

Most people are not pilots to know that.

Re: Tesla sued in wrongful death lawsuit that alleges Autopilot caused crash

#430
post #301

Tesla's blog post: https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/blog/update-last-week’s-accident the driver’s hands were not detected on the wheel for six seconds prior to the collision. The driver had about five seconds and 150 meters of unobstructed view of the concrete divider Looks like sensors failed to see concrete divider in nice sunny weather and car slammed in to it at 70mph. Driver was obviously over confident on system's a…

The problem with the no hands-on-steering-wheel detection claim Tesla keeps bringing up is that it's quite fallible and not as conclusive as they insist. A light touch(like one might expect while driving a freeway with cruise control and lane-keep assist, for example) may not provide enough torque for the sensor to detect it. Plenty of people have complained about it in the past. https://forums.teslarati.com/threads/…

Any idea why torque is used, as opposed to reliable methods like capacitive? I think you're absolutely right about torque being minimal on straight ways.
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