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Advances in Weather Prediction

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Re: Advances in Weather Prediction

#31

Post by arethuza »

Tepix wrote: post #28

One (rather easy?) thing I'd like to see in weather forecast apps is a confidence score. I know that sometimes the weather is hard to predict. Right now I can't tell by looking at the weather forecast how confident they are. If the different weather models give significantly different forecasts, the confidence score should reflect it.

I've an informal method for estimating uncertainty by looking at how the forecast for a particular day changes over time - i n the UK the BBC provides 10 day forecasts so I watch particular days and if they are consistent over time then I usually have more confidence than if the forecast for a particular day changes every day.

Mind you - I had a six hour walk in rain and snow last Saturday when the forecast was for a fairly nice day and had been for over a week :-)

Re: Advances in Weather Prediction

#32

Post by evandijk70 »

Tepix wrote: post #28

One (rather easy?) thing I'd like to see in weather forecast apps is a confidence score. I know that sometimes the weather is hard to predict. Right now I can't tell by looking at the weather forecast how confident they are. If the different weather models give significantly different forecasts, the confidence score should reflect it.

The Dutch weather forecast has an 'expert' forecast that includes confidence bands, see:

https://www.knmi.nl/nederland-nu/weer/waarschuwingen-en-verw...

The page is not very popular though

Re: Advances in Weather Prediction

#33

Post by hadlock »

Tepix wrote: post #28

One (rather easy?) thing I'd like to see in weather forecast apps is a confidence score. I know that sometimes the weather is hard to predict. Right now I can't tell by looking at the weather forecast how confident they are. If the different weather models give significantly different forecasts, the confidence score should reflect it.

Just as an extra datapoint, when it comes to ocean racing, one of the biggest complaints about mesoscale weather data is that it does not have a confidence score. The weather forecast says that the north pacific high is going to shift 200 miles west, which changes your fastest course from San Diego to Hawaii from a west then southerly route, to a south then westerly route (the high pressure system sits directly in between)... if the confidence on this forecast is 95% then you know to commit to the southerly route, but if it is only 51% confidence and typically the high is 500 miles more east than this then you might make a different decision and monitor the situation as it develops.

Anyways, if anyone at the NWS is reading this, we do actually pay close attention to this stuff and a confidence score of some sort would make boat weather routing software a whole heck of a lot more accurate.

Re: Advances in Weather Prediction

#34

Post by hadlock »

mehrdadn wrote: post #3

How good is weather prediction for other people? Is it actually accurate for you? Are even the current conditions accurate for you? I use Weather Underground, and a few weeks ago in the Bay, here are just a couple of the things I remember observing (out of the many wrong predictions): (1) One afternoon I was told there would be rain in 5-6 hours, then a couple hours I was told there would be none. (2) I started getti…

My experience living in Dallas, Texas, which has some 1500 miles of accurate weather data as systems come across the north american continent from west to east.... usually the 10 day weather forecast was accurate to within 4 hours. This is really helpful for planning sailing trips, etc. Usually three days out the weather prediction is accurate to within 30 minutes.

As for the California SF Bay area, weather prediction is mostly useless, day to day weather prediction is wildly inaccurate. I think just on Friday there was a prediction that we were going to have a bunch of fog through Tuesday, and it was clear the next day. Wild storms will be predicted, and then never appear, and other times weather that was going to hit Oregon smashes in to the bay for three days. Many times we've gone out sailing expecting calm forecasted weather (Mother's Day 2016) and got 25mph winds and other times we went out expecting forecasted 15mph winds and it was closer to 6-8mph.

My guess is that the lack of HD weather radar in the pacific and the complex topology of the coastal areas and the bay, and also the chaotic interaction between ocean and inland weather systems make for a much more challenging forecasting system than doing forecasting of the plains states. The unique geography of the golden gate being a venturi tube between the low pressure 55F/13C pacific ocean marine layer and the high pressure 95F/35c central valley some forty miles inland creates what the local slang describes as "the wind machine".

Re: Advances in Weather Prediction

#35

Post by taejo »

evandijk70 wrote: post #32
Tepix wrote: post #28

One (rather easy?) thing I'd like to see in weather forecast apps is a confidence score. I know that sometimes the weather is hard to predict. Right now I can't tell by looking at the weather forecast how confident they are. If the different weather models give significantly different forecasts, the confidence score should reflect it.

The Dutch weather forecast has an 'expert' forecast that includes confidence bands, see: https://www.knmi.nl/nederland-nu/weer/waarschuwingen-en-verw... The page is not very popular though

That's great, I would love it if there was something like that that covered a wider area.

Re: Advances in Weather Prediction

#36

Post by halter73 »

ncmncm wrote: post #23

Not widely publicized is that 5G cellular is going to eliminate one of the primary data inputs that have made weather prediction successful. The US FCC decided, on their own, that this was not an important problem, compared (most likely) to the amount of money to be made building out 5G.

Let's stick with facts instead of fear mongering.

I dislike Ajit Pai as much as the next person and wish he had heeded NASA's request to delay the 5G role out. That said, it's not a forgone conclusion that 5G will significantly interfere with let alone eliminate the ability of radio spectrometers on weather satellites to measure water vapor using the 23.8 GHz band.

The new FCC UMFUS regulations that govern 5G require require signals to use a set of frequencies all of which are greater than 24 GHz.

That said, of course NASA is concerned about malfunctioning 5G transmitters leaking into the 23.8 GHz spectrum. Hopefully out-of-band emissions don't become a problem. It's the FCC's job to ensure that it doesn't, and the lack of carefulness so far in the process doesn't inspire confidence.

Re: Advances in Weather Prediction

#37

Post by angry_octet »

halter73 wrote: post #36
ncmncm wrote: post #23

Not widely publicized is that 5G cellular is going to eliminate one of the primary data inputs that have made weather prediction successful. The US FCC decided, on their own, that this was not an important problem, compared (most likely) to the amount of money to be made building out 5G.

Let's stick with facts instead of fear mongering. I dislike Ajit Pai as much as the next person and wish he had heeded NASA's request to delay the 5G role out. That said, it's not a forgone conclusion that 5G will significantly interfere with let alone eliminate the ability of radio spectrometers on weather satellites to measure water vapor using the 23.8 GHz band. The new FCC UMFUS regulations that govern 5G require…

The fear is based on the already significant interference caused by consumer devices in other bands. 5G network infrastructure is likely better controlled, but doing so requires good regulation.

There is some possibility that the 5G systems could actually be used to measure some atmospheric properties, similar to the way Navstar GPS L1/L2 signals are analyzed, but since that isn't a requirement of the 5G spec/regulations, it won't be baked in.

Re: Advances in Weather Prediction

#38

Post by caprese »

Tepix wrote: post #28

One (rather easy?) thing I'd like to see in weather forecast apps is a confidence score. I know that sometimes the weather is hard to predict. Right now I can't tell by looking at the weather forecast how confident they are. If the different weather models give significantly different forecasts, the confidence score should reflect it.

I don't like how they give you the worst possible weather for the day, for the whole area.

any biomes have a rain shower from one cloud over one neighborhood, but the whole area is now "chance of rain 100%", when the real user experience is 100% sunny/clear at all hours of the whole day

Re: Advances in Weather Prediction

#39

Post by ljcn »

Tepix wrote: post #28

One (rather easy?) thing I'd like to see in weather forecast apps is a confidence score. I know that sometimes the weather is hard to predict. Right now I can't tell by looking at the weather forecast how confident they are. If the different weather models give significantly different forecasts, the confidence score should reflect it.

The Climendo app takes an average of 3-5 forecasts and presents a confidence measure.

Not as good as proper confidence from the model ensemble, but better than what you normally get from a single forecaster.

There's a web interface too.. https://climendo.com

Re: Advances in Weather Prediction

#40

Post by myama »

freehunter wrote: post #19
ravedave5 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Besides microclimites, which are a whole other discussion, predictions vary per service. It looks like AccuWeather has a 2% better rating for San Francisco, it's not much but it's something. https://www.forecastadvisor.com/California/SanFrancisco/9412... but compared to a smaller city also with microclimates on a large body of water the prediction for San Fran is 15% better - https://www.forecastadvisor.com/Minnesota…

That's the first time I've seen that site, and for my city it's kind of frustrating if it's true. The Weather Channel rates the best (by far) compared to my preferred app, but I find The Weather Channel app to be an awful user experience for how I want to see weather presented to me.

The Weather.com data is sold to Google, Facebook and many others. Perhaps you find a better user experience on those platforms?
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