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Advances in Weather Prediction

science.sciencemag.org

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Re: Advances in Weather Prediction

#21

Post by [deleted] »

mehrdadn wrote: post #15
mannykannot wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do a number of outdoor activities and I think forecasting has become very reliable, with the caveat that precise precipitation amounts and timing can vary over a short distance. If you are concerned about rain in the next couple of hours, take a look at the radar maps, and see if the situation is shaping up as predicted.

Yeah the amount is secondary. I don't really have a good feel for 0.01 inches vs. 0.1 inches anyway (both seem small and then I constantly get surprised). Trouble is when they literally say no chance of rain and then I get soaked, or when they say it'll rain and there's not a single drop.

[deleted]

Re: Advances in Weather Prediction

#22

Post by baddox »

mehrdadn wrote: post #8
baddox wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Parts of the Bay Area are pretty famous for having microclimates. I wouldn’t really use traditional weather reports for determining if it’s currently raining right here, but I find them accurate enough for determining if I need to carry my rain jacket or umbrella for the day.

This wasn't a microclimate issue. I'm pretty darn sure the conditions at the station simply could not have been so radically different. And re: forecasts, if I had just looked at the weather to see if I needed an umbrella that evening I would've concluded "yes" if I had looked at 2pm and "no" if I looked at 3pm. Sometimes they do get it right, but other times they're just literally useless.

The point of having the umbrella with you for the day is so that when you walk out the door and it’s raining you can open the umbrella.

Re: Advances in Weather Prediction

#23

Post by ncmncm »

Not widely publicized is that 5G cellular is going to eliminate one of the primary data inputs that have made weather prediction successful.

The US FCC decided, on their own, that this was not an important problem, compared (most likely) to the amount of money to be made building out 5G.

Re: Advances in Weather Prediction

#24

Post by telesilla »

ncmncm wrote: post #23

Not widely publicized is that 5G cellular is going to eliminate one of the primary data inputs that have made weather prediction successful. The US FCC decided, on their own, that this was not an important problem, compared (most likely) to the amount of money to be made building out 5G.

Can you elaborate on this? Do you have any references?

Re: Advances in Weather Prediction

#25

Post by LoSboccacc »

mehrdadn wrote: post #3

How good is weather prediction for other people? Is it actually accurate for you? Are even the current conditions accurate for you? I use Weather Underground, and a few weeks ago in the Bay, here are just a couple of the things I remember observing (out of the many wrong predictions): (1) One afternoon I was told there would be rain in 5-6 hours, then a couple hours I was told there would be none. (2) I started getti…

here in italy is wildly inaccurate. medium and long term stability/instability trend holds, but day by day or hour by hour prediction are almost completely worthless.

Re: Advances in Weather Prediction

#26

Post by nairboon »

telesilla wrote: post #24
ncmncm wrote: post #23

Not widely publicized is that 5G cellular is going to eliminate one of the primary data inputs that have made weather prediction successful. The US FCC decided, on their own, that this was not an important problem, compared (most likely) to the amount of money to be made building out 5G.

Can you elaborate on this? Do you have any references?

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19674218

Re: Advances in Weather Prediction

#27

Post by mehrdadn »

baddox wrote: post #22
mehrdadn wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This wasn't a microclimate issue. I'm pretty darn sure the conditions at the station simply could not have been so radically different. And re: forecasts, if I had just looked at the weather to see if I needed an umbrella that evening I would've concluded "yes" if I had looked at 2pm and "no" if I looked at 3pm. Sometimes they do get it right, but other times they're just literally useless.

The point of having the umbrella with you for the day is so that when you walk out the door and it’s raining you can open the umbrella.

Yes? Not sure how this is a reply to the comment...

Re: Advances in Weather Prediction

#28

Post by Tepix »

One (rather easy?) thing I'd like to see in weather forecast apps is a confidence score.

I know that sometimes the weather is hard to predict. Right now I can't tell by looking at the weather forecast how confident they are. If the different weather models give significantly different forecasts, the confidence score should reflect it.

Re: Advances in Weather Prediction

#30

Post by SimplyUnknown »

Tepix wrote: post #28

One (rather easy?) thing I'd like to see in weather forecast apps is a confidence score. I know that sometimes the weather is hard to predict. Right now I can't tell by looking at the weather forecast how confident they are. If the different weather models give significantly different forecasts, the confidence score should reflect it.

I have worked at my nation's meteorological office and they (and I'd assume others do too) provide this service. They do this by running an ensemble (at our office, a population size of 50) with different starting conditions of numerical weather prediction models, rather than a single run. This will give you a confidence in the predictions of the numerical models. Besides general forecasting, they are also using this for hazard triggers so it can basically answer questions like "In the next 72 hours is there a 50% or greater chance that wind speeds will be higher than 30 knots at the biggest airport?".
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