Live data from Hacker News

The answer to California's housing crisis is more housing

nytimes.com

71–80 of 158 posts

Re: The answer to California's housing crisis is more housing

#71
post #58

I think there should be a national effort to "spread out" the economy and fight the trend towards centralization in a few areas. If you build more housing in CA, even more people will move there and the overcrowding will become even worse. There should be incentives for companies to move away from places like SV and NY. More acceptance of remote work would help too but I wouldn't hold my breath for it.

I am not sure some areas that are growing are ideal from a water usage perspective, but I thought density was very efficient and should be promoted.

Re: The answer to California's housing crisis is more housing

#72
post #58

I think there should be a national effort to "spread out" the economy and fight the trend towards centralization in a few areas. If you build more housing in CA, even more people will move there and the overcrowding will become even worse. There should be incentives for companies to move away from places like SV and NY. More acceptance of remote work would help too but I wouldn't hold my breath for it.

> There should be incentives for companies to move away from places like SV and NY.

There are already tons of incentives and tax breaks like this for companies. Just for a recent example, see Amazon HQ2. Companies also have the added incentive of lower labor costs. It's clearly not enough yet.

Re: The answer to California's housing crisis is more housing

#73
post #29

Have there been any studies examining the impact on the market of banning career landlords and REITs? What happens if you restrict residential housing to being owned by a single person who cannot own anything else in that area, rather than letting capital have the run of the place and treating homes as an investment plaything?

Short run, rents go up and purchas prices go down, fairly obviously since you restrict purchase demand and rental supply by excluding a big market segment from both of those roles.

Re: The answer to California's housing crisis is more housing

#74
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That would significantly increase the taxes on agricultural use. Is that your intent? To incentivize high density residential, while making it hard to grow food?

There isn't much agricultural land, if any, in cities and suburbs. In the US, land is taxed at the local level (municipality and county), not at the state or federal level.

Not always. Here in KS side of Kansas City suburbs you will find crop fields between dense, multi-story developments. The agriculture land tax is applied throughout the state. The developers exploit this to pay vastly lower property taxes than if it were vacant land.

One instance in particular, they’ll run a harvester right next to a 6 story development, and it probably only takes 10 minutes of run-time. Pretty crazy, but it’s a tax savings.

Re: The answer to California's housing crisis is more housing

#75
post #2

> because developers mostly would build high-end units This is such a frustrating perspective.

The notion that new construction being 'high-end' won't improve the market on the low-end is erroneous in markets where the spread of rent budgets of people forms smooth, continuous gradient. But the Bay Area is not such a market -- nor are places where significant cash infusions such as very high pay at the high-end or subsidies like military housing allowances to people of middle incomes will distort the field upwards. Then there's Prop 13, which disincentivizes the sale of legacy homes, removing many residents and homes in the middle of the income/rent spread from the liquidity of the market.

Developers want to build units that are 'high-end' because it's the best way to recoup their costs. Urban construction is expensive and many projects are made possible by a combination of loans, private equity funding, and government subsidies. The increase of supply in high-end apartments creates competitive pressure on older units, places with less amenities, places with dated design, and places in inferior locations. Since housing sorting resembles an auction, people with the highest rent budgets have the most options. Landlords of less ideal places will see some tenants filter out and replaced. Eventually, the replacements stop coming, because all people of higher rent budgets have already moved to more desirable places. Instead of letting apartments sit empty, the landlord might lower the rent while still staying within the profitability threshold.

This doesn't work every time. If people of high rent budgets never stop coming, they never have to lower prices: there's an undersupply on the high-end too. This is clearly the case in the Bay and other desirable areas of California.

Re: The answer to California's housing crisis is more housing

#76
post #72
post #58

I think there should be a national effort to "spread out" the economy and fight the trend towards centralization in a few areas. If you build more housing in CA, even more people will move there and the overcrowding will become even worse. There should be incentives for companies to move away from places like SV and NY. More acceptance of remote work would help too but I wouldn't hold my breath for it.

> There should be incentives for companies to move away from places like SV and NY. There are already tons of incentives and tax breaks like this for companies. Just for a recent example, see Amazon HQ2. Companies also have the added incentive of lower labor costs. It's clearly not enough yet.

"Just for a recent example, see Amazon HQ2."

That's a good example actually. It's hard to understand that NYC was offering subsidies to Amazon. NYC doesn't really need more people or more companies.

Re: The answer to California's housing crisis is more housing

#77
post #58

I think there should be a national effort to "spread out" the economy and fight the trend towards centralization in a few areas. If you build more housing in CA, even more people will move there and the overcrowding will become even worse. There should be incentives for companies to move away from places like SV and NY. More acceptance of remote work would help too but I wouldn't hold my breath for it.

I'm really curious about the pros and cons here. Neither way seems obviously better than the other. Why is concentration worse than distribution? Why is distribution better?

Re: The answer to California's housing crisis is more housing

#78

There is so much wasted/poorly optimized land in SF. I cringe whenever I see the massive surface level Safeway parking lot in Duboce/Church.

The whole dogpatch to India Basin and hunters point areas could be upzoned massively to accommodate a few hundred thousand new residents very easily. Lay down a good street grid, have a plan to eventually put the third street light rail underground or overhead to give massive transit capacity and have a complete free for all of new high rise (20+ stories) apartments there. You could do this without touching any zoning anywhere else in the city. Yet we can’t even do this. Similar “win-win” options exist all over the Bay Area that don’t get done, and you begin to realize the real reason is preserving property values. All new housing is bad. Thus there is no negotiation with existing vested interests. They’ll run the city into the ground until the state forces their hand in some way.

Re: The answer to California's housing crisis is more housing

#79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any new modern apartment is considered luxury. Its actually impossible to build non luxury apartments in Sf. It seems what people want is for builders to actively destroy the apartment after they build it so that it will be rented at a lower price.

> It seems what people want is for builders to actively destroy the apartment after they build it so that it will be rented at a lower price. What some people want is subsidized building of units in exchange for rent limits.

Ok so what you want is subsidized luxury apartments. Because the quality of the apartment doesnt seem like its going down under your model.

Re: The answer to California's housing crisis is more housing

#80
post #5

Could this crisis be an instance of induced demand? [1] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Induced_demand

What is induced?

California has been growing at a rate slower than other states. When it comes to domestic migration, it exports more people to other states than it accepts.

When it comes to international migration, net migration is less than births minus deaths, and that's with a low birth rate.

In the early 1960s, California had a population of 15 million and built 250k-300k homes per year. Currently California has a population of 40 million and build 80k homes per year.

After the next census, California is expected to lose representation in the House because most other states are growing faster than California.

California has had a major major change in population and building styles since 1980, but policy decisions are still made under the assumption that we are living with the 1960s numbers for building and population.

Post reply on HN