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Is Life Expectancy Finally Topping Out?

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Re: Is Life Expectancy Finally Topping Out?

#51

Post by drdeadringer »

Aromasin wrote: post #31
midgetjones wrote: post #11

Never mind the decline in improvement, I think we're going to see a sudden sharp drop very soon. It may be hidden by the long-lived generation before, but the baby boomers have eaten, drunk, and medicated themselves into oblivion compared to their parents. And who knows what's to come for the next generation, with an increasing wealth divide and heck knows what else.

My parents, baby boomers themselves, are starting to see the effects of this. Funeral after funeral of friends and family dying in their early to late 60's - almost always due to heart disease, liver failure or some sort of cancer. Every time I join them it's the same "he seemed so healthy/ it was so unexpected/ she was gone so quickly". In my head I can't help but think "he ate nothing but meat/ she drank a bottle o…

> dying in their early to late 60's - almost always due to heart disease, liver failure or some sort of cancer

In a "Death and Dying" psych class I took in university, the professor remarked how we went from dying from infectious diseases to dying from lifestyle issues.

I'm not sure how true or false this is, but when one isn't going to die from the flu you might live long enough to die from consuming too much bacon and alcohol.

I'm interested in learning more about this idea.

Re: Is Life Expectancy Finally Topping Out?

#52

Post by saint_abroad »

> If we are still far from the limit to the human life-span, then the largest survival gains should be recorded among the oldest people.

Trends in outliers cannot be used to extrapolate trends in mean, unless for very small populations (such that outliers are unreliable).

The article just seems to be an opinion piece to explain away falling improvements in average life-expectancy rather than tackle rising inequality.

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2016/04/for-life-expe...

Being poor in the United States is so hazardous to your health, a new study shows, that the average life expectancy of the lowest-income classes in America is now equal to that in Sudan or Pakistan.

Re: Is Life Expectancy Finally Topping Out?

#54

Post by village-idiot »

saiya-jin wrote: post #53
village-idiot wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fair enough. But the point is that wide appeal does not guarantee low prices.

it sort of does, if you are not in US...

Implying that the current economic conditions will remain as is forever is not a good bet. The current economic poison in the heart of the US could go away, or it could spread.

While I have no personal experience in these matters, I have the understanding that Europe's economic situation is becoming more American like faster than the US is becoming like anyone else.

Re: Is Life Expectancy Finally Topping Out?

#55

Post by chriselles »

lm28469 wrote: post #30
chriselles wrote: post #4

I remember seeing the horrible decline in life expectancy when the Soviet Union collapsed. At the same time, the Soviet client state of Cuba saw a dramatic reduction in economic activity and caloric restriction. Cuban dietary belt tightening led to a massive reduction in cardio vascular disease with a correlated massive reduction in obesity. I’m not a doctor, nor a data scientist or economist. But I suspect we will s…

> How much will people pay for an extra 5-10 years? > Everything. Yeah as long as it doesn't require any effort. Exercise every day, stop alcohol, stop smoking, start eating well. You might not live longer but you'll live in good health longer, which is all that matter in the end. I'd take living until 60 in full physical and mental shape over slowly rotting in a retirement home until 90. If we truly cared about heal…

I do agree with you about the majority unwilling/unable to invest sufficient effort into their physical wellbeing.

But I strongly believe there is a small minority of people who are making consistent choices that positively impact longevity.

Anecdotally, I’m seeing it with my cohort of friends and family here in NZ as well as when visiting the US.

At the age of 50, I’m already seeing clear indicators of the bifurcation between those who are taking active steps to enhance their longevity compared to those who are not.

My personal opinion is that we will see single digit percentage of people who consistently take drive steps to enhance their health and well-being to enhance longevity,

Re: Is Life Expectancy Finally Topping Out?

#56

Post by chriselles »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #8
chriselles wrote: post #4

I remember seeing the horrible decline in life expectancy when the Soviet Union collapsed. At the same time, the Soviet client state of Cuba saw a dramatic reduction in economic activity and caloric restriction. Cuban dietary belt tightening led to a massive reduction in cardio vascular disease with a correlated massive reduction in obesity. I’m not a doctor, nor a data scientist or economist. But I suspect we will s…

>How much will people pay for an extra 5-10 years? Everything. I doubt it, most people aren't even willing to pay the small price of feeling lactic acid when exercising. Or not consuming excess calories. Quality of life matters too. If you have children, I would be surprised if most people would want to spend their personal wealth for an extra 5 to 10 geriatric bed ridden years. It only happens now because the taxpay…

Agreed about the choice to spend money for extra years bed ridden.

But I believe we are quickly approaching a time where we will be able to purchase extra years of higher quality of life.

Look at cancer drug Herceptin as an example. It doesn’t cure cancer of stop it. It just slows t down allowing the cancer victim more time at a better quality of life.

I think we will see a two fold improvement with new longevity developments that mix better quality of life combined with slowly incrementally longer life.

But I completely agree that the solution is not a pill.

You have to invest in both work and time otherwise pharmacological inputs alone will likely be marginally effective, if at all.

Re: Is Life Expectancy Finally Topping Out?

#57

Post by chriselles »

taneq wrote: post #26
chriselles wrote: post #4

I remember seeing the horrible decline in life expectancy when the Soviet Union collapsed. At the same time, the Soviet client state of Cuba saw a dramatic reduction in economic activity and caloric restriction. Cuban dietary belt tightening led to a massive reduction in cardio vascular disease with a correlated massive reduction in obesity. I’m not a doctor, nor a data scientist or economist. But I suspect we will s…

So you're saying we should expect something like the immortal plutocrat 'Meths' in Altered Carbon? I don't doubt it. The old adage of 'you can't take it with you' will be amended to 'but if you're rich enough you don't have to go.'

Firstly, I’m a fan of Hard sci fi like Altered Carbon.

What a great show!

I don’t think we will see human consciousness slipping from body to body in our foreseeable future.

If so, it surely would add yet another dimension to unbalanced wealth accumulation.

But I think we are fast approaching a time where an extra 5-10 years of high quality life are within the reach of the affluent and wealthy.

Perhaps starting with not so much longer life, but better life before an inevitable physiological/cognitive decline.

Re: Is Life Expectancy Finally Topping Out?

#58

Post by toasterlovin »

bregma wrote: post #45
DebtDeflation wrote: post #15

My understanding is that the doubling in life expectancy over the last 150-200 years was primarily due to the drastic reduction in infant mortality and elimination of most infectious diseases. If you only look at life expectancy from the point of reaching adulthood, the change hasn't been nearly as dramatic.

Yes. When most people say "life expectancy" they mean "life expectancy at birth." Even in the depths of the middle ages when life expectancy at birth was around 30 years, most people who lived to adulthood lived into their 60s and 70s.

I think the OP is specifically trying to say that most lay people do not actually mean "life expectancy at birth" when they use the term "life expectancy", but instead mean "how long I, a person who has reached adulthood, can expect to live". I agree with OP, FWIW.

Re: Is Life Expectancy Finally Topping Out?

#59

Post by tracker1 »

lm28469 wrote: post #30
chriselles wrote: post #4

I remember seeing the horrible decline in life expectancy when the Soviet Union collapsed. At the same time, the Soviet client state of Cuba saw a dramatic reduction in economic activity and caloric restriction. Cuban dietary belt tightening led to a massive reduction in cardio vascular disease with a correlated massive reduction in obesity. I’m not a doctor, nor a data scientist or economist. But I suspect we will s…

> How much will people pay for an extra 5-10 years? > Everything. Yeah as long as it doesn't require any effort. Exercise every day, stop alcohol, stop smoking, start eating well. You might not live longer but you'll live in good health longer, which is all that matter in the end. I'd take living until 60 in full physical and mental shape over slowly rotting in a retirement home until 90. If we truly cared about heal…

You don't even have to eat that well... After not smoking and reducing alcohol, reducing sugar (in particular fructose) is probably the best thing you can do for yourself. Then followed by less refined food overall.

Sugar is as addictive as anything, and its heavily subsidized and advertised for... A single 12oz can of Coca-Cola has as much, or more, refined sugar than the average adult should have in a day on average.

Re: Is Life Expectancy Finally Topping Out?

#60

Post by Conjoiner »

yeuxverte wrote: post #47
Conjoiner wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And if you add in modern abortions to life expectancy then the view also changes.

And if you add in sperm lost in condoms to life expectancy then the view also changes.

There is nothing magical about passing through a vagina to with life should start counting from then.
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