Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#551

Post by matwood » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 12:18 PM UTC

sliken wrote: post #496

threeseed wrote: post #486

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ordinary people aren't buying cars today based purely on MPG so why do people think range, battery efficiency etc is going to be a primary reason in future ? It's far more likely to be just one of many factors. And Tesla really isn't great in many of them e.g. interior design, build quality, easy of service, product availability, brand cachet, etc. And now they have to worry if Tesla will even be around in 5-10 years…

Agreed. But Tesla IS doing really well on what consumers care about. Search for "Tesla owners are more satisfied than any other auto brand's, according to Consumer Reports" or similar articles. Especially for first time electric car buyers, they really do seem rather worried about moving from a 488 mile range (like a honda accord) to a 240-370 mile range (Tesla). I suspect mostly because they haven't internalized the…

> But Tesla IS doing really well on what consumers care about. Search for "Tesla owners are more satisfied than any other auto brand's, according to Consumer Reports" or similar articles.

How much of this is due to many of the buyers were fans where Tesla could do not wrong? I know one of those people.

I also know someone who bought a TSLA recently. He likes the car, but hates dealing with TSLA the company. Incompetent was the word used.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#552

Post by dagw » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 12:18 PM UTC

imglorp wrote: post #522

hef19898 wrote: post #480

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It still comes down to a race between Tesla figuring out the complete automotive supply chain and competitors figuring out EVs. Tesla had, and I would assume still has, production hell. Now it's delivery hell. Both are solved, controlled and executed constantly by other car companies (VW has an exception with the new Golf 8 that proves the rule). The competition is still struggling to solve EVs, some like Jaguar and…

Tesla has one more advantage over all the fossils: they're all in. The old guys are still challenged on mission, twisted up and fighting internally, bringing out weak token products designed to not hurt their ICE lines.

I think this is probably more important than people give it credit for. I have an acquaintance who works R&D at a traditional car company (but on self driving features) he says the internal 'fights' between ICE and electric are very real and damaging.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#553

Post by sliken » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 12:21 PM UTC

georgerobinson wrote: post #474

oblio wrote: post #441

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you sure about that? https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46774053 Every sales graph I've ever seen has relatively cheap cars such as the Fiesta, Golf, Corsa, etc. at the top. Not big Mercedes or BMWs.

Yes. I'm not saying that people in the market for a Ford Fiesta are instead going out and buying a 3 series. People who want a hatchback and going out and buying hatchbacks. But people who want saloons and estate cars are largely buying from the three Germans, and not Japanese or Korean.

I've heard one of the more popular cars people moved from to buy a model 3 is the toyota prius... definitely not a luxury car.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#554

Post by savrajsingh » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 12:21 PM UTC

imglorp wrote: post #522

hef19898 wrote: post #480

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It still comes down to a race between Tesla figuring out the complete automotive supply chain and competitors figuring out EVs. Tesla had, and I would assume still has, production hell. Now it's delivery hell. Both are solved, controlled and executed constantly by other car companies (VW has an exception with the new Golf 8 that proves the rule). The competition is still struggling to solve EVs, some like Jaguar and…

Tesla has one more advantage over all the fossils: they're all in. The old guys are still challenged on mission, twisted up and fighting internally, bringing out weak token products designed to not hurt their ICE lines.

This is a good point — remember that Kodak released some of the first digital cameras. They still failed to switch fast enough.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#555

Post by friendzis » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 12:24 PM UTC

Xcelerate wrote: post #145

Fricken wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EVs are a false peak. So long as everyone is driving around in their own personal automobile, we're doing nothing to address autocentic development, with all it's accompanying sprawl, concrete, ashphalt, steel, and general hi-consumption culture that goes with it.

We need an entrepreneur to do with the city what Elon did with the car. How on earth you would fund something of that scale, I’m not sure. And many country’s attempts at “cities of the future” have ended up as ghost towns. I’d love to see someone develop a new walkable, eco-friendly city from scratch somewhere in the U.S., but all odds are against that kind of thing.

I just don't get the obsession of some people with "walkable cities". What is reasonable walking time at -20 during snowstorm or at +30 at blazing sun? Multiply that with reasonable pedestrian speed and get outer diameter of the mystic "walkable city". The way I would define reasonable values that would be roughly 2-3km. That's a village, not even a town.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

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Post by Isinlor » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 12:24 PM UTC

navigatesol wrote: post #501

gonehome wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People have been predicting failure for Tesla since the beginning. At each stage saying they’d fail and not be able to execute. Every time so far they’ve been wrong. I like my model 3 a lot so I’d recommend one - I don’t think the people speculating on Tesla are particularly good at it.

> People have been predicting failure for Tesla since the beginning. This is such a bizarre argument. Things don't fall apart overnight, until they do. Are you a software engineer? "People have been predicting our app will collapse under the burden of technical debt since the beginning. Hasn't happened yet!"

It is certainly not bizarre. Extrapolating from the past is almost always the best baseline for predicting future. I put emphasis on the word baseline.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#557

Post by 3327 » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 12:31 PM UTC

neuronic wrote: post #469

_ph_ wrote: post #338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First of all, you basically cannot buy a Hyundai. The production is far below Model 3 levels. Here in Germany, you are looking at 12 months wait time due to demand far exceeding supply. Also, the Model 3 is a very attractive offering. It is the faster car, aims at the typical BMW audience, and most of all, has the supercharger network available.

As another German I can definitely tell you that no one here sees a Model 3 at anywhere near a BMW in production quality. If Tesla intends to market the Model 3 at the "BMW audience" - whatever differentiates them from, say, the "Audi audience" - they are horribly miscalculating at what German people expect from a car. It is not limited to EV range. Also, Volkswagen is ramping up production on their Modular Electric…

>> I mean BMW's are considered pretty low end cars here in the US (compared to Audi and Benz) I feel BMW's have just gotten worse and worse in the last 8 years, however Audi and Benz is another story.

>> however the scale of engineering is something else ---> I had a lecture from the CEO of Benz, and i can tell you they are going all in on EV. Tesla needs to survive a few more years >> it is still significantly hard achieving what they have achieved for VW and Benz -> they have production lines tooled for Gasoline -> guess how hard it is to change that and retool? not easy...

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#558

Post by raiyu » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 12:33 PM UTC

savrajsingh wrote: post #554

imglorp wrote: post #522

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla has one more advantage over all the fossils: they're all in. The old guys are still challenged on mission, twisted up and fighting internally, bringing out weak token products designed to not hurt their ICE lines.

This is a good point — remember that Kodak released some of the first digital cameras. They still failed to switch fast enough.

The shift want just digital cameras it was also the iPhone that made the digital camera obsolete.

With digital cameras they were losing film revenue which was larger than camera sales.

Car companies don't own gas stations so they will switch faster and easier than Kodak.

There will be some struggles internally but not as much I suspect.

Plus modern EVs have demonstrated more performance then ice so it's really just a matter of catering to demand as it changes.

The challenge here is more on Tesla to make a sustainable car company than it is on old companies to convert.

If a startup car company in Czech can make a hyper car EV that beasts a Veyron in acceleration then there is nothing proprietary about the tech and incumbents will have an easier time switching as demand evolves.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

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Post by sjwright » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 12:33 PM UTC

tertius wrote: post #475

sjwright wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is in debt largely because of their rapid ramp-up with costly investments in design, development, manufacturing and supply chain. My layperson understanding is Tesla have been in a structurally profitable state for quite some time—but for their investments geared towards scaling up ever further. The question you need to ask is "if you build a factory, across how many units should the cost of that factory be spr…

> Tesla is in debt largely becaus Yes, massive debt with no income. Ambitious for sure.

That's right, because Tesla has famously never sold a single car to anyone.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#560

Post by loceng » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 12:33 PM UTC

navigatesol wrote: post #503

emptyfile wrote: post #419

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gotta love HN comments about Tesla.

It's not just HN, it's everywhere . Anything that comes out of the mouth of Elon is an instant fact, and is repeated as fact until it's proven false. Then it was merely a prediction or plan. He just went on stage and told investors that their non-existent, full self-driving robot taxi fleet will cut the cost of personal transport by 90% over Uber, and will make the car owners $10-$30k+ ("in some cases more!") in annu…

Did you watch the presentation relating to the Tesla chip release - along with watching the fully self-driving vehicle video? They had the lead chip engineer explain their improvements, and they had their AI lead explain why they're at the lead for this - both very experienced and articulate people in their fields.

I don't understand how you say it's a pipe dream unless you don't comprehend what they're sharing. If they're outright lying about the operations per second speeds (TOPS) they announced then that's one thing, however I doubt they would.

Another thing to realize is Tesla will be self-interested, as they should be to some degree, so how much profit they will allow non-Tesla owned vehicles to operate in the Tesla Network could heavily be dictated by them - so I wouldn't necessarily go out and buy 20 vehicles to inject them for full-time Tesla Network usage, however some people may take that gamble and then it also fronts money to Tesla. Even if the improvements are 1/4 of what they announced, it is significant.

Re: Solar City - they've had to redirect battery and other resources to focus on the vehicles. You're making a lot of assumptions. It might help to balance that out with they're working very hard, have very intelligent people on board, their work and effort has already lead them to this level of success, they're working on creating a whole ecosystem on limited resources that they have to manage, and they have the semi and other vehicles lined up for next year - which they already have pre-orders in for as well. I'd say you're a bit too hyper-focused on certain things, and no, I'm not suggesting to not be skeptical and understand they may not meet their goals and on time the 100% that gamblers-as-investors are betting on them to have.