Is Life Expectancy Finally Topping Out? • Hacker News Board

Re: Is Life Expectancy Finally Topping Out?

#21

Post by nottorp » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 11:25 AM UTC

DebtDeflation wrote: post #15

My understanding is that the doubling in life expectancy over the last 150-200 years was primarily due to the drastic reduction in infant mortality and elimination of most infectious diseases. If you only look at life expectancy from the point of reaching adulthood, the change hasn't been nearly as dramatic.

And they are falling a bit into that trap: "In 1850, the combined life expectancies of men and women stood at around 40 years in the United States, Canada, Japan and much of Europe."

But if you eliminate life expectancy at birth, you'll notice that there hasn't been a drastic improvement. It's been discussed on HN previously, and I think adult life expectancy has only improved by less than 20 years over the last several hundred.

(Someone with sources feel free to correct me).

Re: Is Life Expectancy Finally Topping Out?

#22

Post by bostonpete » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 11:32 AM UTC

ido wrote: post #17

tonyedgecombe wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We seem to have got a lot worse at nutrition over the last thirty years.

I don't know where you were in the 80s but 30 years ago nutrition was as bad or worse than now from my perspective (except in countries that were previously too poor to eat badly) - white bread, lots of sugar, etc - all stuff people nowadays avoid a lot more than my parents' generation did at the time.

Well in the US at least there was much less obesity, which I think says something about nutrition, no? I don't think people were particularly more physically active 30 years ago...

Re: Is Life Expectancy Finally Topping Out?

#23

Post by basetop » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 11:33 AM UTC

alexpotato wrote: post #13

My grandmother was born in 1912 and live to 97. She: - was born in a time with no antibiotics - lived on a farm with all of it's inherent risks - lived through World War 1 (granted in the United States) - survived the "Spanish Flu" (although as someone under 10 whereas hardest hit were adults) - lived through the Depression - started having children post World War 2 (now with antibiotics available). I've often though…

Another example is the life expectancy of holocaust survivors. Holocaust survivors in israel have longer life expectancy than other israelis. That's because you had to have the best immune system and psychological will to live in order to survive the disease and starvation ridden concentration camps.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/surviving-holocaust-contribute...

I agree with your point about demographic lottery. Your genetics and where you are born probably contributes significantly to your life expectancy.

Re: Is Life Expectancy Finally Topping Out?

#24

Post by nonaime » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 11:37 AM UTC

ido wrote: post #17

tonyedgecombe wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We seem to have got a lot worse at nutrition over the last thirty years.

I don't know where you were in the 80s but 30 years ago nutrition was as bad or worse than now from my perspective (except in countries that were previously too poor to eat badly) - white bread, lots of sugar, etc - all stuff people nowadays avoid a lot more than my parents' generation did at the time.

That's if you can afford to do so; otherwise, there are way more options for cheap processed foods than there were 30 years ago.

Re: Is Life Expectancy Finally Topping Out?

#25

Post by ahje » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 11:43 AM UTC

ido wrote: post #17

tonyedgecombe wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We seem to have got a lot worse at nutrition over the last thirty years.

I don't know where you were in the 80s but 30 years ago nutrition was as bad or worse than now from my perspective (except in countries that were previously too poor to eat badly) - white bread, lots of sugar, etc - all stuff people nowadays avoid a lot more than my parents' generation did at the time.

Yep. People born in the 60's seem to have rather atrocious habits compared to the ones we have today. I remember getting Kellog's Frosties with strawberry jam for breakfast as a kid. I doubt many parents would serve that to their kids today.

Re: Is Life Expectancy Finally Topping Out?

#26

Post by taneq » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 11:45 AM UTC

chriselles wrote: post #4

I remember seeing the horrible decline in life expectancy when the Soviet Union collapsed. At the same time, the Soviet client state of Cuba saw a dramatic reduction in economic activity and caloric restriction. Cuban dietary belt tightening led to a massive reduction in cardio vascular disease with a correlated massive reduction in obesity. I’m not a doctor, nor a data scientist or economist. But I suspect we will s…

So you're saying we should expect something like the immortal plutocrat 'Meths' in Altered Carbon? I don't doubt it. The old adage of 'you can't take it with you' will be amended to 'but if you're rich enough you don't have to go.'

Re: Is Life Expectancy Finally Topping Out?

#27

Post by RankingMember » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 11:54 AM UTC

bostonpete wrote: post #22

ido wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know where you were in the 80s but 30 years ago nutrition was as bad or worse than now from my perspective (except in countries that were previously too poor to eat badly) - white bread, lots of sugar, etc - all stuff people nowadays avoid a lot more than my parents' generation did at the time.

Well in the US at least there was much less obesity, which I think says something about nutrition, no? I don't think people were particularly more physically active 30 years ago...

I think it's both. People were notably more physically active in decades past.

"Lower levels of physical activity, both in organized sports and at play, account for a lot of the rest, they say. U.S. health authorities say children should be getting 60 minutes of active play a day, but only one-third are getting that.

Children are much less likely to walk, bike or skate to school than they were in the 1970s, at least in the U.S., Canada, Australia and the United Kingdom. Neighborhoods are increasingly suburban, especially in Asia, and people are driving more.

And from the 1970s till now, the number of global households with TVs, VCRs, computers, Internet access and video games has soared."

- https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2013/11/20/2463167...

Re: Is Life Expectancy Finally Topping Out?

#28

Post by Retric » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 11:57 AM UTC

matt4077 wrote: post #18

DebtDeflation wrote: post #15

My understanding is that the doubling in life expectancy over the last 150-200 years was primarily due to the drastic reduction in infant mortality and elimination of most infectious diseases. If you only look at life expectancy from the point of reaching adulthood, the change hasn't been nearly as dramatic.

That’s a common “fun fact” but it’s been so overdone people are probably now erring more to the other side. Here’s a graph: http://www.roperld.com/science/graphics/LifeExpectancyForDif... As an example, in the 20th Century, life expectancy at birth rose from about 40 to 77 years. But for 20 year olds, it also went from 34 to 59 additional years.

That does not seem to be accurate for the US from 1900 looking at a life table. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/lifetables/life1890-1910.pdf

Page 52 Men in 1900 life expectancy at 20: 42.48

Page 54 Women in 1900 life expectancy at 20: 43.6

The Social Security life table for 2016 lists 56.91 years at 20 a gain of ~13.9 years in the last 116. https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

Re: Is Life Expectancy Finally Topping Out?

#29

Post by xorfish » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 12:02 PM UTC

chriselles wrote: post #4

I remember seeing the horrible decline in life expectancy when the Soviet Union collapsed. At the same time, the Soviet client state of Cuba saw a dramatic reduction in economic activity and caloric restriction. Cuban dietary belt tightening led to a massive reduction in cardio vascular disease with a correlated massive reduction in obesity. I’m not a doctor, nor a data scientist or economist. But I suspect we will s…

Why would true anti aging medication be expensive? The market is huge, even with cheap medication you'd make a lot of money.

Re: Is Life Expectancy Finally Topping Out?

#30

Post by lm28469 » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 12:03 PM UTC

chriselles wrote: post #4

I remember seeing the horrible decline in life expectancy when the Soviet Union collapsed. At the same time, the Soviet client state of Cuba saw a dramatic reduction in economic activity and caloric restriction. Cuban dietary belt tightening led to a massive reduction in cardio vascular disease with a correlated massive reduction in obesity. I’m not a doctor, nor a data scientist or economist. But I suspect we will s…

> How much will people pay for an extra 5-10 years?

> Everything.

Yeah as long as it doesn't require any effort.

Exercise every day, stop alcohol, stop smoking, start eating well. You might not live longer but you'll live in good health longer, which is all that matter in the end. I'd take living until 60 in full physical and mental shape over slowly rotting in a retirement home until 90.

If we truly cared about health we wouldn't accept ICE cars inside our cities, fast food, sodas, fat acceptance movements, &c. We're not killed by diseases anymore, we're killed by sloth and gluttony.