Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#281

Post by ulfw » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 5:11 AM UTC

taneq wrote: post #244

2bitencryption wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the smartest thing Musk ever did for Tesla was to start sending rockets into space and landing them over and over. It really makes you think, "Hey, if they can do all that rocket science, they can probably make a sedan." (This is mostly a joke... but it's also not entirely a joke)

That's actually a very good point - Tesla's current "halo car" isn't the Model S or the Roadster 2.0, it's the Falcon Heavy.

Is it? Do people buy a $100K Tesla because the same owner owns a rocket company? Why? I’ve never met anyone who considered a Rolls because the company used to build aircraft engines

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#282

Post by cmurf » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 5:11 AM UTC

jedberg wrote: post #4

This explains why they've been so slow on giving me my reservation money back.

I suggest you get on that. Next call you get will be, the VIN is issued, sorry no refund! File a small claims case if the refund is less than small claims max. File a complaint with your district attorney's consumer protection division. File a BBB complaint, Tesla is a member looks like. Squeaky wheel and all, but hey it's your money.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#283

Post by robocat » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 5:16 AM UTC

gonehome wrote: post #228

newsoul2019 wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was close to buying a used Tesla from Tesla, but this is making me pause. Am I being unreasonable? I live in the Bay Area where I feel like the only person without a Tesla or two.

People have been predicting failure for Tesla since the beginning. At each stage saying they’d fail and not be able to execute. Every time so far they’ve been wrong. I like my model 3 a lot so I’d recommend one - I don’t think the people speculating on Tesla are particularly good at it.

The question is, can we see how Tesla can get yearly earnings of say $5 billion to justify the valuation?

Maintaining a high profit per car seems to depend on selling a premium product, or presuming that other car makers cannot compete. When shifting to the mass market (more than say 1 million vehicles per year), surely the profit per vehicle has to decrease sharply - even if Tesla can earn more than the industry $1k per vehicle (from the quote below).

From 2017: "Recently, Tesla’s valuation surpassed both Ford’s and General Motors’. BMW is among the other major carmakers in the rearview mirror. The logic of this is intriguing, given that Ford, for example, is coming off its second-best year in its 112-year history, earning $4.6 billion while selling more than 5.5 million cars worldwide. General Motors earned $9.4 billion selling 9.8 million vehicles." From article: https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/6/26/15872468/tesla-gm...

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#284

Post by rifung » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 5:17 AM UTC

Reedx wrote: post #113

stonogo wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The people who issued him a United States Department of Defense security clearance, to start with. At least they should. I guess Musk plays by different rules than us plebians.

Why should they? It's much less problematic than alcohol.

The reason I was told by someone who applied for security clearance is because it's a crime (federally) and they are afraid that someone could use that to blackmail you into giving state secrets.

I think it's a similar thing for illegally downloading music or whatever..

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#285

Post by grey-area » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 5:19 AM UTC

robertcope wrote: post #243

aaomidi wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These videos are getting old, boring, and annoying. Everyone who drives a tesla knows how their car behaves. I don't expect it to see that barrier when I'm driving my model 3. Listen - it's hard to imagine what it's actually like to drive a Tesla and learning what it can or can't do. Everyone driving a tesla right now knows that the autopilot is more like a rookie co-pilot that needs monitoring and checking all along…

Tell that to the woman I saw driving down I-45 recently in a Tesla. Going well under the flow of traffic in the left lane, doing her makeup, completely not paying attention to anything but herself.

I agree these people are risking their lives.

That shows just how badly people want to do something else instead of driving though, and how important autonomous cars are. If tesla (or some other company) can get it right, this is transformative.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#286

Post by steelframe » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 5:20 AM UTC

cmer wrote: post #31

DamnYuppie wrote: post #10

I see this trend continuing for Tesla. Aside from Musk's leadership, which is very polarizing, I don't see their cars as being very compelling compared to the upcoming offerings of Audi and Porsche. Tesla isn't really competing against Ford/Chevy/Honda/Toyota. Instead they are competing against BMW/Mercedes/Porsche/Audi. By comparison Teslas seems like a toy compared to those other brands so I will gladly wait and gi…

I think pretty much every single person who owns a Model S/X would tell you that they're never going back to the old German crew. Tesla enjoys the strongest brand loyalty of any car manufacturer. Apple-like loyalty. Tesla doesn't feel like a toy, it feels like the future. They're years ahead of everybody else in terms of tech that is usable today.

I owned a Model X for a couple of years. I didn't go back to the "German crew," but I did go "back" to an I-PACE. Maybe it's just my lifestyle, but I never need more than about 120 miles of range in any given day. Give me a car that can go about 250 miles, and I'm perfectly happy with the range part of the equation. Differentiate on things like the quality of the interior and the handling, and you have my business.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#287

Post by sliken » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 5:20 AM UTC

mamon wrote: post #245

sliken wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree, but from what I can tell the Audi, Porsche, and BMW are targeting where the model S was... not where it is today. I.e. range in the 200-260 miles, not 370. Seems likely by the time any of the competition is shipping in reasonable numbers (already hearing complaints of limited battery supply from the German companies) there's likely to be a model S with the improve battery pack based on the same tech as the m…

It seems that beating Tesla in range game is quite easy[1] I think BMW or Audi don't do that simply because they do not care enough - they optimize for different use case, i.e. daily commute, not 1500 miles road trips. [1] https://electrek.co/2018/09/07/bmw-i3-100-kwh-battery-pack-l...

Not sure how much faith I have in a 3rd party modified i3 that has a claimed (but untested) range of 435 miles. After all you can take a regular Tesla model 3 and drive 1000km if you are hyper miling.

The main problem is unlike ICE cars that generally have so much wasted energy that temperature, speed, terrain, and driving style do not have a particularly large impact on range. In comparison electric cars are so efficient that elevation changes, cold temperatures, and running the AC or heater can make big differences. In particular speed can make a huge difference. A model 3 with a 300 or so mile range can go over 600 miles when hyper miling. To help with that the community consensus is to take all range estimates with a grain of salt until you see the EPA range.

Said claimed 435 mile range was not tested by the EPA.

Keep in mind that the battery packs Audi e-tron is using is as almost the same size (95 kw vs 100 kw), but is providing radically less range (208 miles vs 370). So clearly the Tesla is crazy more efficient. Given the expense and weight of the batteries, clearly Audi would have made a more efficient car... if they could.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#288

Post by goshx » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 5:21 AM UTC

radium3d wrote: post #252

Seasonal 4th to 1st quarter may have been a loss but these numbers stand out to me as being a bit more important. Cars sold: Q1 2019: 63,000 Q1 2018: 29,980 Q1 2017: 25,000 Q1 2016: 14,820 Q1 2015: 10,045 Q1 2014: 6,457 Q1 2013: 4,900 Q1 2012: 0 Revenue Q1 2019: $4.5 billion Q1 2018: $3.4 billion Q1 2017: $2.7 billion Q1 2016: $1.6 billion Q1 2015: $1.1 billion Q1 2014: $713 million Q1 2013: $562 million Q1 2012: $30…

Also: "Operating cash flow less capex should be positive in every quarter including Q2. As the impact of higher deliveries and cost reduction take full effect, we expect to return to profitability in Q3 and significantly reduce our loss in Q2."

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#289

Post by TaylorAlexander » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 5:21 AM UTC

dogsgobork wrote: post #246

rjdagost wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This wasn't reported much, but Tesla also expanded their ABL (Asset Based Lending) credit agreement by $500M in March 2019: https://ir.tesla.com/node/19561/html Without that, they would have $500M less cash on hand. They shipped half of their cars in the final 10 days of Q1. Finances must have been pretty tight at the start of March. That was around the time they announced they are closing all stores, firing sales pe…

The pool of people that put down $1000 thinking they were going to buy a $35k car, has to be much larger than the people willing to plunk down $2500 for a $48k car (the cheapest pre-order currently available). The multi year wait for the $35k version to be available (and quickly abandoned) can't help.

I was surprised by your claim so I checked... the Tesla website currently allows me to configure a Model 3 that is $39,500 before discounts for estimated delivery in two weeks. Not $35k but far less than $48k too.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#290

Post by slg » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 5:22 AM UTC

mamon wrote: post #245

sliken wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree, but from what I can tell the Audi, Porsche, and BMW are targeting where the model S was... not where it is today. I.e. range in the 200-260 miles, not 370. Seems likely by the time any of the competition is shipping in reasonable numbers (already hearing complaints of limited battery supply from the German companies) there's likely to be a model S with the improve battery pack based on the same tech as the m…

It seems that beating Tesla in range game is quite easy[1] I think BMW or Audi don't do that simply because they do not care enough - they optimize for different use case, i.e. daily commute, not 1500 miles road trips. [1] https://electrek.co/2018/09/07/bmw-i3-100-kwh-battery-pack-l...

I don't think you have any basis to say it is "quite easy" based off that article. You obviously can just keep throwing more batteries in a car, but can you do it at a reasonable cost while also making it safe and keeping the heat in check to maximize charging speed and the life of the battery like Tesla does?