> Today, if you can't interactively explore the data in the browser, it's considered subpar.
PDFs still remain a primary form of interchange for academic documentation. People who really want to crunch the data will want raw data files or some sort of common interchange format.
> but they're services with default UIs you're forced to use
I gave a bunch of examples where you're not forced to use them. Most of the popular web services are also available through apps on mobile.
> REST APIs are restricted both in terms of features and what ToS allows you
For public REST APIs, sure. For private use, it's still things like REST and whatnot that power desktop and mobile apps, bringing data from those internet-based services to local clients, completely bypassing the web.
> Can I have an alternative implementation of the Dropbox client?
You can, but that isn't the point. The point is that the Dropbox client, the executable program or mobile app, is how people tend to use Dropbox. If not that, people also connect to Dropbox through alternative third party apps.
Completely possibly, and I wager mostly the case, to bypass the web.
> All being increasingly replaced by Google Docs
Citation needed.
> You can't edit those outside the browser
You can, using Google's apps. They're not fantastic, but that's not the app's fault, that's Google's. Meanwhile, iWork and Office 365 let one easily edit documents with the desktop and mobile apps — and Office remains king of the hill in enterprise, whatever people may wish to believe.
> Exception, not the rule
But still highly relevant.
> I'm not saying everything is in the browser now. But it sure as hell looks like in 10 years it'll all be
It really doesn't. There's no pattern from which to base this. Apps are far more popular, especially thanks to the rise of smartphones; the web remains a convoluted mess of inconsistent looks and feels that increasingly assume a high-quality broadband connection even though there are still vast portions of the developed world that still don't have adequate internet to completely shift away from local apps; and plenty of enterprises still run on older versions of software and standards.
When one examines the whole picture, the web is far from being as ubiquitous as you imagine it to be or shall be — it's merely the next biggest alternative that happens to be huge.