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Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

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Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#281

Post by emef »

bogomipz wrote: post #265
sairahul82 wrote: post #114

Karpathy's presentation is really good. Watch it later if you get some time. The key points are - Telsa is using fleet for learning (Fleet learning). This has 3 components, a. Trigger infrasture that collects the kind of data telsa is looking for training. The rational here is we don't need massive amounts of same kind of data but needs right kind of data for training neural networks correctly. b. Data Engine which l…

>"People drive vision only." Can you elaborate on what you mean here? Do you mean that Tesla will only be using Computer Vision for autonomy? Doesn't or wouldn't Lidar compliment CV? Or is there a practical design consideration that makes them mutual exclusive?

Tesla has take a firm stance against using LiDAR and is doubling down on CV. I'm not sure if they have radars for parking assistance, but they are using cameras as primary sensor for perception and localization.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#282

Post by threeseed »

SheinhardtWigCo wrote: post #259
michaelt wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

lidar is not required and is expensive. Given that the only the company claiming that is the one whose cars sometimes hit (or even swerve into) clearly visible stationary concrete barriers in broad daylight [1, 2, 3, 4], I consider that claim far from proven. [1] 2019 https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/03/dashcam-video-shows-tes... [2] 2018 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16772748 [3] 2017 https://bgr.com/2017/03…

This argument misses the forest for the trees. Even level 5 autopilot will sometimes crash into objects that are clearly visible to most humans, as will lidar-based solutions. But if the robot fleet is an order of magnitude safer than the human fleet, then it makes rational sense to prefer a robot driver to a human.

Problem with Tesla is that it is crashing into objects no human would crash into. And doing so at high speed.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#283

Post by dwighttk »

grecy wrote: post #268
gamblor956 wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

None of what Elon said will change the world in the next 5 years... It's also pretty clear based on the selective presentation of data that they're even further behind Waymo than everyone thought. This was the time to actually prove that their ahead, and all they could give was more of Elon's hot air. At the end Elon said autonomy is basically their entire expense sheet! Must have missed that part, but if he actually…

> None of what Elon said will change the world in the next 5 years... Oh come on! If even half of what he says comes true in the next five years the world will not be the same. Entire car rated to 1 million miles (including the battery pack) with minimal servicing Level five autonomy at the end of 2020. Remove steering wheels and pedals from cars a year after that. After robo-fleet goes live Tesla will be "massively…

>Oh come on! If even half of what he says comes true in the next five years the world will not be the same.

I could say 20 things that if even 1 comes true in the next five years the world will not be the same!

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#284

Post by dwighttk »

gonehome wrote: post #109
dwighttk wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"many times better than competitors" "next gen that will be 3x better to ship in a couple years" applying psudomathematical varnish to marketing-speak

I was summarizing - they gave explicit technical details in the talk.

Nvidia says they were comparing against an inferior chip https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nvidia-says-tesla-inaccura...

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#285

Post by threeseed »

bogomipz wrote: post #265
sairahul82 wrote: post #114

Karpathy's presentation is really good. Watch it later if you get some time. The key points are - Telsa is using fleet for learning (Fleet learning). This has 3 components, a. Trigger infrasture that collects the kind of data telsa is looking for training. The rational here is we don't need massive amounts of same kind of data but needs right kind of data for training neural networks correctly. b. Data Engine which l…

>"People drive vision only." Can you elaborate on what you mean here? Do you mean that Tesla will only be using Computer Vision for autonomy? Doesn't or wouldn't Lidar compliment CV? Or is there a practical design consideration that makes them mutual exclusive?

That people drive vision is so idiotic.

Humans have far higher resolution sensors and the most advanced computer ever seen behind them. And even that fails at a far higher rate than we want self driving cars to be.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#286

Post by robszumski »

metafunctor wrote: post #207
Fricken wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vision is probablistic. You can improve your probabilities with more data and deeper nets, but the probability is never 100%. Inferring depth using triangulation of extracted features using vision is also probabilistic. Lidar gives you very rudimentary depth and positional data, but it is precise, and reliable, and the false positives are low. Lidar is not seeing the world as a series of probabilistic phantasms that…

I think the point was that lidar is too low resolution. You must have very high resolution (in both time and space) to achieve L4 or L5; to accurately determine if a pedestrian is not paying attention, or if a bicyclist is looking to cross the road. Not that Tesla is doing any of that right now, they most likely are not. But a lidar is not going to, either. Not ever, which is the point. I thought the fleet learning a…

I haven't seen any mentions of cheaper Lidars, like single axis scanning only, to get some sort of depth map without spinning mirrors or 360 degree positions that ruin aesthetics.

I feel like this would be able to detect trees in the distance and other objects to orient the road/lane detection. And keep it cheap. Possibly add on to existing cars.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#287

Post by grecy »

dwighttk wrote: post #283
grecy wrote: post #268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> None of what Elon said will change the world in the next 5 years... Oh come on! If even half of what he says comes true in the next five years the world will not be the same. Entire car rated to 1 million miles (including the battery pack) with minimal servicing Level five autonomy at the end of 2020. Remove steering wheels and pedals from cars a year after that. After robo-fleet goes live Tesla will be "massively…

>Oh come on! If even half of what he says comes true in the next five years the world will not be the same. I could say 20 things that if even 1 comes true in the next five years the world will not be the same!

You could, but you're not a billionaire running multiple companies that have already done a ton of things that many, many experts said could not be done.

Also note, I'm not saying Elon will do all or even half of them. I'm saying it's going to be damn exciting to watch, and I'm keeping my fingers crossed that he does, because I'd like the world to get better, and I'm happy to be an optimist.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#288

Post by dwighttk »

davej wrote: post #254
tomComb wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm a fan of Tesla, but not Musk. You really can't believe much that comes out of his mouth. If you look at his past claims it becomes clear that he should just be ignored.

> If you look at his past claims it becomes clear that he should just be ignored. What's an example of this? His timelines are often much too aggressive for reality but he repeatedly delivers (eventually).

hasn't delivered full self driving (yet)

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#289

Post by village-idiot »

outworlder wrote: post #239
selectodude wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which might explain why he's a crummy CEO. If your job is to strategize for the entire company and you're busy learning the minutiae that you spend a lot of money for other people to worry about, maybe you need to consider using your time a little better. If you want to build neural nets, keep your stock, fire yourself and go build neural nets.

> If your job is to strategize for the entire company and you're busy learning the minutiae that you spend a lot of money for other people to worry about, maybe you need to consider using your time a little better This is what everyone that is not Tesla or SpaceX are doing. And have been doing for a long time. If the CEO is not an engineer at heart, what are they? I seriously doubt Elon Musk has more engineering know…

> This is what everyone that is not Tesla or SpaceX are doing.

I think it's very important to point out here that Elon does not run SpaceX. It's well known that he's a front man for that company, and that all day to day operations are run by an actual executive who does the job of being an executive. This is why SpaceX is doing much better than Tesla.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#290

Post by trixie_ »

RivieraKid wrote: post #253
krzkaczor wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I found interesting as well is that they (him and Elon) hated the idea of using high definition maps, saying that if you need them you don't do self-driving cars really. For example, when driving condition change (roadblock or anything) you're done.

If this is true, why do Waymo (or any of the top 10 self-driving companies besides Tesla) use Lidar? Two facts: 1. Tesla can't use Lidar because of cost and aesthetics. 2. Elon has a strong incentive to oversell their approach to self-driving.

From the presentation they mention that Lidar is good at developing tech demos quickly, but they've found it is insufficient in reality. Which of those 10 companies you reference have moved far beyond tech demos?
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