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Amazon's empire rests on its low-key approach to AI

economist.com

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Re: Amazon's empire rests on its low-key approach to AI

#51

Post by BrandonWatson »

waldohatesyou wrote: post #42
BrandonWatson wrote: post #36

I ran Kindle software Product Management for 3 years. Left in 2014 AMA about the memo process or OP1/OP2 process.

Did you ever feel like it was a waste of time or do you feel it genuinely added value to the company to engage in that exercise?

Genuinely added value. I was firmly in the "NO" camp when I got to AMZN. Writing was something that people who didn't understand hustle did. :)

What I found, over time, was that the exercise of writing forces critical thinking. PowerPoint is corporate theater. Very easy to convince with your voice instead of facts, logic, data, and insight.

There were certainly times where I felt that the doc process was used unnecessarily as a blunt cudgel, but for the big decisions, and the planning process, it was incredibly helpful. As I have transitioned to working with companies as an investor, advisor, and board member, I have continued to use the templated FAQ docs for driving decisions. I am starting to get my teams to use them for board meetings.

Re: Amazon's empire rests on its low-key approach to AI

#52

Post by BrandonWatson »

rosspackard wrote: post #50
BrandonWatson wrote: post #36

I ran Kindle software Product Management for 3 years. Left in 2014 AMA about the memo process or OP1/OP2 process.

IANAL but you should be careful about sharing private information about a large publicly traded company

Always appreciate the reminder. I'm answering questions at a high level and hoping to share the learning from my time at AMZN. Anything confidential will remain as such.

Re: Amazon's empire rests on its low-key approach to AI

#53

Post by jessriedel »

waldohatesyou wrote: post #43
waldohatesyou wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you ever feel like it was a waste of time or do you feel it genuinely added value to the company to engage in that exercise?

Sorry for the double post, accidentally hit reply twice on mobile client.

You can delete the comment within the first two hours, I think. Certainly can be edited.

Re: Amazon's empire rests on its low-key approach to AI

#54

Post by maxxxxx »

mi100hael wrote: post #29
erikpukinskis wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I am waiting for the "Blockchain Excellence Initiative" with a lot of presentations and shiny newsletters. That's actually a really good business plan.

There are already plenty of them... https://www.google.com/search?q=blockchain+center+of+excelle...

So far most of things I have seen that have the name “Excellence” are bullshit, produce a lot of hot air.

Re: Amazon's empire rests on its low-key approach to AI

#55

Post by pdelgallego »

maxxxxx wrote: post #27
rogerkirkness wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In a big enough company where software isn't the product that just means they know the tech that applies to that company. The CIO is probably a fearful late career IT politician and the CTO could have spent 40 years progressively learning more about washing machines or planes.

That's pretty much it. There is also a widespread belief that software development is "IT" which means that an initiative to implement cloud systems gets led by people who have experience with desktop deployments or firewall setup. There is a lot of politics around budgets so the IT department won't let go of that power.

I read in Werners Vogels blog (amazon CTO), that there are four types of CTOs [1] based on Berray and Sampath paper. [2]

* Infrastructure Manager

* Technology Visionary and Operations Manager

* External Facing Technologist

* Big Thinker

[1] https://www.allthingsdistributed.com/2007/07/the_different_c...

[2] http://www.brixtonspa.com/Career/The_Role_of_the_CTO_4Models...

Re: Amazon's empire rests on its low-key approach to AI

#56

Post by epiphanitus »

BrandonWatson wrote: post #36

I ran Kindle software Product Management for 3 years. Left in 2014 AMA about the memo process or OP1/OP2 process.

What is it like being in the stack ranking system? Is it as stressful as it is reported or have its drawbacks been exaggerated in the media?

Re: Amazon's empire rests on its low-key approach to AI

#57

Post by baxtr »

dave84 wrote: post #37

And yet I still get emails from Amazon trying to sell me products I just bought. Bought a hygrometer earlier in the week, delivered yesterday, email today about hygrometers. Maybe they have data showing that converts well.

My feeling: amazon is great in applying ML in the back, e.g. warehouse replenishments, but not so great in the customer facing applications. Only my view from outside

Re: Amazon's empire rests on its low-key approach to AI

#58

Post by enraged_camel »

steve19 wrote: post #34
gordon_freeman wrote: post #19

I think a lot of people just don't realize that Machine Learning can be as simple as a linear regression with 2 variables. The hype and myth around ML are such that some employers just assume that they need to hire rockstar data scientists to do ML but in reality, a junior level data analyst or even a non-technical employee can do simple ML model in Excel spreadsheet assuming he/she has some background in Stats 101.

Yes but that is the easy part. The hard part is knowing what can be solved with ML, gathering the training data, validating the model and then explaining what the model does. Acually fitting the model is not the hard part. But yes, not all ML is deep learning and most ML problems should NOT use deep learning.

>>The hard part is knowing what can be solved with ML

I’d say THIS is the hardest part by far. It requires a very rare mix of business domain expertise and technical knowledge with regards to ML/DL.

Re: Amazon's empire rests on its low-key approach to AI

#59

Post by areoform »

dave84 wrote: post #37

And yet I still get emails from Amazon trying to sell me products I just bought. Bought a hygrometer earlier in the week, delivered yesterday, email today about hygrometers. Maybe they have data showing that converts well.

Actually, they do! This is a frequent misunderstanding, but buyer's remorse is a common thing and a lot of folks return the items that they've bought because they're unsatisfied with it. Even if it is 5% of all customers, the numbers will add up really fast for Amazon.

It's quite clever if you look at it from an aggregate perspective. They're casting a wider, second net to catch the fish who slip through.

Re: Amazon's empire rests on its low-key approach to AI

#60

Post by otterley »

varelse wrote: post #12
dodobirdlord wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From what I have seen 6-pager process and more importantly the clear writing and efficient meetings that it fosters are pretty helpful. It's important to note that a 6-pager contains 6 pages of expected reading and can have as much additional appendix material as you want. I've seen "6-pager" documents that were dozens of pages long, and have heard possibly apocryphal stories of 6-pagers hundreds of pages long for ma…

The ideal of the 6-pager is magnificent. The reality of the 6-pager in 2019 is that it has become boilerplate where style overwhelms substance. Similar things can be said of their OP1 and OP3 planning processes that are becoming increasingly cargo cult IMO. And that arises naturally from a static game whose most experienced players have become better at funding projects than they are at funding better projects. Thoug…

> The reality of the 6-pager in 2019 is that it has become boilerplate where style overwhelms substance.

I think this varies by team. In my experience thus far, I've been receiving lots of feedback -- often actionable -- to improve my own narratives.

If your reviewers aren't pushing back on you when your paper lacks the required substance, that definitely needs to be addressed.

> OP1 and OP3 planning processes that are becoming increasingly cargo cult IMO

Businesses need operating plans to determine prioritization and funding. What's the problem with them, exactly?

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