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Amazon's empire rests on its low-key approach to AI

economist.com

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Re: Amazon's empire rests on its low-key approach to AI

#31

Post by east2west »

beastcoast wrote: post #15
b_tterc_p wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can anyone at amazon comment on whether this actually works? Edit: the ai part specifically.

The article overstates the use of ML at least in fulfillment we use a lot of math models (eg xpress solver) and optimization algorithms (traveling salesmen type problems) but not so much in the ML space.

Usually optimization takes forecasts as part of inputs. It is actually a lot like reinforcement learning, where the sales forecasts are part of the environment. This is standard process for supply-chain management, not just retail industry or at Amazon.

Re: Amazon's empire rests on its low-key approach to AI

#32

Post by joe_the_user »

erikpukinskis wrote: post #25
joe_the_user wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At most companies this would run the risk of poorly shoe-horning ML into a bunch of applications and making everything needlessly complex & expensive without seeing improved results (same goes for blockchain). Sure, and in Amazon, you get a few tweaks that get the company a few bucks. It suspect the article wildly overstates the value of ML to Amazon. Amazon's success seems to rest on: A. Attracting enough capital to…

I was curious how the Amazon/eBay split looks revenue-wise.... Not exactly apples-to-apples but in 2018 Amazon was $180B in net sales vs eBay $95B GMV. So Amazon is more than double but maybe not 10x? Amazon GMV is supposedly in the $250B range but they don't report it. And it's obviously hard to compare such different business models.

Not exactly apples-to-apples but in 2018 Amazon was $180B in net sales vs eBay $95B GMV.

So you're comparing Amazon sales to eBay market value (total stock price). Yeah, it's completely meaningless comparison [Edit: I was wrong, it's Amazon sales versus eBay's gross merchandise value but it's still entirely off as a comparison].

Btw, my quickly googled references show eBay's net sales as 10.75B and Amazon's at $141.92B, which is indeed a more than 10x relations (when I think all other statistics show Amazon an order of magnitude ahead, not that I initially made any strong assertions about this but anyone looking has notice Ebay's star fading).

[1]https://amigobulls.com/stocks/EBAY/income-statement/annual

[2] https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/article/amazon-sales/

Re: Amazon's empire rests on its low-key approach to AI

#33

Post by JacobDotVI »

joe_the_user wrote: post #32
erikpukinskis wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was curious how the Amazon/eBay split looks revenue-wise.... Not exactly apples-to-apples but in 2018 Amazon was $180B in net sales vs eBay $95B GMV. So Amazon is more than double but maybe not 10x? Amazon GMV is supposedly in the $250B range but they don't report it. And it's obviously hard to compare such different business models.

Not exactly apples-to-apples but in 2018 Amazon was $180B in net sales vs eBay $95B GMV. So you're comparing Amazon sales to eBay market value (total stock price). Yeah, it's completely meaningless comparison [Edit: I was wrong, it's Amazon sales versus eBay's gross merchandise value but it's still entirely off as a comparison]. Btw, my quickly googled references show eBay's net sales as 10.75B and Amazon's at $141.9…

GMV is Gross Merchandise Value, not stock price.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_merchandise_volume

eBay states there's here: https://ebayadvertising.com

The question is what is the GMV for Amazon's entire marketplace vs. their first-party Sales.

Re: Amazon's empire rests on its low-key approach to AI

#34

Post by steve19 »

gordon_freeman wrote: post #19

I think a lot of people just don't realize that Machine Learning can be as simple as a linear regression with 2 variables. The hype and myth around ML are such that some employers just assume that they need to hire rockstar data scientists to do ML but in reality, a junior level data analyst or even a non-technical employee can do simple ML model in Excel spreadsheet assuming he/she has some background in Stats 101.

Yes but that is the easy part. The hard part is knowing what can be solved with ML, gathering the training data, validating the model and then explaining what the model does.

Acually fitting the model is not the hard part.

But yes, not all ML is deep learning and most ML problems should NOT use deep learning.

Re: Amazon's empire rests on its low-key approach to AI

#35

Post by joe_the_user »

JacobDotVI wrote: post #33
joe_the_user wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not exactly apples-to-apples but in 2018 Amazon was $180B in net sales vs eBay $95B GMV. So you're comparing Amazon sales to eBay market value (total stock price). Yeah, it's completely meaningless comparison [Edit: I was wrong, it's Amazon sales versus eBay's gross merchandise value but it's still entirely off as a comparison]. Btw, my quickly googled references show eBay's net sales as 10.75B and Amazon's at $141.9…

GMV is Gross Merchandise Value, not stock price. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_merchandise_volume eBay states there's here: https://ebayadvertising.com The question is what is the GMV for Amazon's entire marketplace vs. their first-party Sales.

Okay, now I know, but the fact remains that Amazon is actually much large than Ebay by all apples-to-apples measures.

Re: Amazon's empire rests on its low-key approach to AI

#38

Post by gregdunn »

varelse wrote: post #12
dodobirdlord wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From what I have seen 6-pager process and more importantly the clear writing and efficient meetings that it fosters are pretty helpful. It's important to note that a 6-pager contains 6 pages of expected reading and can have as much additional appendix material as you want. I've seen "6-pager" documents that were dozens of pages long, and have heard possibly apocryphal stories of 6-pagers hundreds of pages long for ma…

The ideal of the 6-pager is magnificent. The reality of the 6-pager in 2019 is that it has become boilerplate where style overwhelms substance. Similar things can be said of their OP1 and OP3 planning processes that are becoming increasingly cargo cult IMO. And that arises naturally from a static game whose most experienced players have become better at funding projects than they are at funding better projects. Thoug…

> The reality of the 6-pager in 2019 is that it has become boilerplate where style overwhelms substance.

I can't say I agree. I'm in the middle of a 6-pager, and the overwhelming majority of feedback/comments from people I've asked to review it have been very specific to making sure there IS substance. Tons of 'This is unclear. Need extra details and specifics', 'Why is this the case?', and so on. Plenty of grammar/style feedback as well, but the whole point is attention to detail.

Re: Amazon's empire rests on its low-key approach to AI

#39

Post by mtgx »

omarchowdhury wrote: post #18
maxxxxx wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is also the story of Amazon mandating that all internal systems communicate with each other through APIs. I think leadership at Amazon has good technical knowledge so they can develop these strategies and see them through. In my company nobody with a "C*O" title (including CIO and CTO) has any clue about tech so they are very susceptible to snake oil salesmen telling them things like "we must do ML". So they te…

How can someone become a CTO without having any clue about tech?

Or a security chief without any clue about tech (let alone security):

https://it.slashdot.org/story/17/09/15/1910200/equifax-ceo-h...

Re: Amazon's empire rests on its low-key approach to AI

#40

Post by kevin_thibedeau »

erikpukinskis wrote: post #26
varelse wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The ideal of the 6-pager is magnificent. The reality of the 6-pager in 2019 is that it has become boilerplate where style overwhelms substance. Similar things can be said of their OP1 and OP3 planning processes that are becoming increasingly cargo cult IMO. And that arises naturally from a static game whose most experienced players have become better at funding projects than they are at funding better projects. Thoug…

They need a 6-pager czar who has the power to send back to editing any paper that's not readable enough.

They just need an AI to review for sub-optimal 6-page reports. First cut can be built off of mechanical turk.
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