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Amazon's empire rests on its low-key approach to AI

economist.com

21–30 of 96 posts

Re: Amazon's empire rests on its low-key approach to AI

#21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can anyone at amazon comment on whether this actually works? Edit: the ai part specifically.

The article overstates the use of ML at least in fulfillment we use a lot of math models (eg xpress solver) and optimization algorithms (traveling salesmen type problems) but not so much in the ML space.

My team does ML in Fulfillment. Search my username on phone tool to figure out my team.

Re: Amazon's empire rests on its low-key approach to AI

#22
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is also the story of Amazon mandating that all internal systems communicate with each other through APIs. I think leadership at Amazon has good technical knowledge so they can develop these strategies and see them through. In my company nobody with a "C*O" title (including CIO and CTO) has any clue about tech so they are very susceptible to snake oil salesmen telling them things like "we must do ML". So they te…

How can someone become a CTO without having any clue about tech?

In a big enough company where software isn't the product that just means they know the tech that applies to that company. The CIO is probably a fearful late career IT politician and the CTO could have spent 40 years progressively learning more about washing machines or planes.

Re: Amazon's empire rests on its low-key approach to AI

#23
post #10

> AMAZON’S SIX-PAGE memos are famous. Executives must write one every year, laying out their business plan. Less well known is that these missives must always answer one question in particular: how are you planning to use machine learning? Responses like “not much” are, according to Amazon managers, discouraged. I think company culture & talent make a big difference here. At most companies this would run the risk of…

There is also the story of Amazon mandating that all internal systems communicate with each other through APIs. I think leadership at Amazon has good technical knowledge so they can develop these strategies and see them through. In my company nobody with a "C*O" title (including CIO and CTO) has any clue about tech so they are very susceptible to snake oil salesmen telling them things like "we must do ML". So they te…

> I am waiting for the "Blockchain Excellence Initiative" with a lot of presentations and shiny newsletters.

That's actually a really good business plan.

Re: Amazon's empire rests on its low-key approach to AI

#25

> AMAZON’S SIX-PAGE memos are famous. Executives must write one every year, laying out their business plan. Less well known is that these missives must always answer one question in particular: how are you planning to use machine learning? Responses like “not much” are, according to Amazon managers, discouraged. I think company culture & talent make a big difference here. At most companies this would run the risk of…

At most companies this would run the risk of poorly shoe-horning ML into a bunch of applications and making everything needlessly complex & expensive without seeing improved results (same goes for blockchain). Sure, and in Amazon, you get a few tweaks that get the company a few bucks. It suspect the article wildly overstates the value of ML to Amazon. Amazon's success seems to rest on: A. Attracting enough capital to…

I was curious how the Amazon/eBay split looks revenue-wise.... Not exactly apples-to-apples but in 2018 Amazon was $180B in net sales vs eBay $95B GMV.

So Amazon is more than double but maybe not 10x? Amazon GMV is supposedly in the $250B range but they don't report it. And it's obviously hard to compare such different business models.

Re: Amazon's empire rests on its low-key approach to AI

#26
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From what I have seen 6-pager process and more importantly the clear writing and efficient meetings that it fosters are pretty helpful. It's important to note that a 6-pager contains 6 pages of expected reading and can have as much additional appendix material as you want. I've seen "6-pager" documents that were dozens of pages long, and have heard possibly apocryphal stories of 6-pagers hundreds of pages long for ma…

The ideal of the 6-pager is magnificent. The reality of the 6-pager in 2019 is that it has become boilerplate where style overwhelms substance. Similar things can be said of their OP1 and OP3 planning processes that are becoming increasingly cargo cult IMO. And that arises naturally from a static game whose most experienced players have become better at funding projects than they are at funding better projects. Thoug…

They need a 6-pager czar who has the power to send back to editing any paper that's not readable enough.

Re: Amazon's empire rests on its low-key approach to AI

#27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How can someone become a CTO without having any clue about tech?

In a big enough company where software isn't the product that just means they know the tech that applies to that company. The CIO is probably a fearful late career IT politician and the CTO could have spent 40 years progressively learning more about washing machines or planes.

That's pretty much it. There is also a widespread belief that software development is "IT" which means that an initiative to implement cloud systems gets led by people who have experience with desktop deployments or firewall setup. There is a lot of politics around budgets so the IT department won't let go of that power.

Re: Amazon's empire rests on its low-key approach to AI

#28
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The ideal of the 6-pager is magnificent. The reality of the 6-pager in 2019 is that it has become boilerplate where style overwhelms substance. Similar things can be said of their OP1 and OP3 planning processes that are becoming increasingly cargo cult IMO. And that arises naturally from a static game whose most experienced players have become better at funding projects than they are at funding better projects. Thoug…

They need a 6-pager czar who has the power to send back to editing any paper that's not readable enough.

That just pushes the problem one level down on the stack, no? Or who sends back the work of the 6-pager Czar? IMO they need to refresh the process, and refresh it frequently. I don't see them doing that though.

Similar things have happened with the well-intentioned "bar-raiser" process as well IMO. I had bar-raisers in interview loops for my team who seemed more intent in blocking potential competitors to their niche than in hiring the best people, which was the whole point of said "bar-raising."

Re: Amazon's empire rests on its low-key approach to AI

#29
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is also the story of Amazon mandating that all internal systems communicate with each other through APIs. I think leadership at Amazon has good technical knowledge so they can develop these strategies and see them through. In my company nobody with a "C*O" title (including CIO and CTO) has any clue about tech so they are very susceptible to snake oil salesmen telling them things like "we must do ML". So they te…

> I am waiting for the "Blockchain Excellence Initiative" with a lot of presentations and shiny newsletters. That's actually a really good business plan.

There are already plenty of them...

https://www.google.com/search?q=blockchain+center+of+excelle...

Re: Amazon's empire rests on its low-key approach to AI

#30
I guess this is making a virtue out of necessity. Amazon is clearly behind other tech companies in deep learning, so they are calling it "low-key." I used to work on the retail side, and their prediction process is pretty bland. They use an off-the-shelf neural networks, but they don't know how to do modeling, so forecasts are inconsistent. I am sure they will try to incrementally solve the problem, but proper modeling is foundational to predictions so I think it will be a long time before it is resolved. Like I said, it is about average in industry.
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