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Uber S-1

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Re: Uber S-1

#441

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aliston is referring to a specific circumstance that screwed many employees during the dot-com boom. If you exercise your options , that creates a taxable event for the difference between your option strike price and the fair market value of the stock on date of exercise. If the stock price subsequently goes down a lot, you can end up with a tax bill greater than the market value of the stocks when the lock-up period…

Pigs get slaughtered. Trying to time your options on a volatile stock to avoid short-term capital gains is gambling. Same-day exercise + sell is what any financial advisor will recommend. RSU risk is worse because it is outside of your control, unless of course you don't have RSUs. You get taxed on the vest date. Withholding is often at the 25% minimum government rate. Assuming you're in a no-sell window, any downwar…

It's so fucked that the law is written this way.

Re: Uber S-1

#442

Is the Saudi family invested in Uber? There was a story that Uber was trying to cover up that the Prince that ordered the murder of the journalist Khashoggi - is this true? I know this is a tech forum, but I am not sure what to believe?

The Saudi family is invested in a lot of SV companies via Softbank's Vision fund (The Saudi fund also owns 5.4% of Uber, directly). I don't think Uber, specifically, had anything to do with Khashoggi murders (with regards to the coverup).

In addition to the SV companies there is WeWork, which is headquartered in New York. Also a bit surprising when I first heard about it.

Re: Uber S-1

#443

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you kidding? True AVs will make Uber/Luft even MORE profitable because they won’t have to pay out or worry about human drivers. AVs are the end game for these companies.

They will have to pay out and worry about the cars, so this is true only if the cost of buying and maintaining the AV is less than the cost of paying a driver, and I’ve seen no evidence yet that this is or ever will be the case.

They don't have to buy the cars they use today, what makes you think they'll have to buy them when they're self driving?

Re: Uber S-1

#444
post #400

People here seem to think that Uber/Lyft do not have any competitive moat. I disagree. What we seem to forget is that just because a VC can burn boatloads of money to capture ridesharing market from Uber/Lyft doesn't mean that they would. From a game theoretic POV, Uber and Lyft have signaled that they're ready to fight for survival in markets they are established in. Unless as a startup founder you can demonstrate t…

> no VC will fund their rapid growth (small offerings will still find a niche, assuming they don't get gobbled up And yet Grab and Didi drove Uber out of South East Asia and China, Ola is giving Uber a run for its money in India and now GoJek in turn is challenging Grab. In my recent trip to Tokyo we were mostly advised to take regular cabs Vs Uber in contrast to a year ago. That's literally half the world where they…

They did not get "out competed" in china, a country where competition has nothing to do with success. Likewise in Russia. Grab is the only company to out compete Uber so far.

Re: Uber S-1

#445
post #79

Horrible numbers! They cannot get the unit economics to work. In order to make up for that fundamental flaw, they are trying to throw a number of things at the wall(UberEats/UberFrieght/SD/Bikes/etc) and see if something sticks. Each of those other bets seems poor, thus far. They better focus on getting their original business in shape(call a cab via an app). I would be curious to know if they tried to raise prices i…

The real problem that I see with using Über in South America is that the service is not improving. - The time estimations are way off - The app doesn't know one-way roads well, although they should have a lot of training data on the routes I go on - They allow drivers haggling for the price by forcing users to pay with cash instead of credit card. - The app doesn't know about the road tarifs sometimes, and the driver…

where? i''ve used several times over several years in Medellin, BsAs, without issue. also CDMX, Panama City in CentAm were fine.

Re: Uber S-1

#446

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is that a counterexample when they started when Uber and Lyft couldn't operate? Are there examples of local services that sprouted up and had to compete with Uber and Lyft and got off the ground?

No one can compete with Lyft and Uber because the latter are heavily subsidized - effectively providing $2 of service for $1 of revenue. Once they run out of runway - and the self-driving pipe dream hasn’t yet materialized - we’ll see a real competitive market emerge in the ridesharing industry.

Somewhat ironically, one of the few cases where increased competition will not coincide with better prices for the consumer.

Re: Uber S-1

#447

Note: - Expected to be teh largest IPO this year in the US. - 10th largest all time - trying to raise around $10B - 2018 Year Ended Revenue $11.27 billion - 2018 Year Ended Net Income $997 million - 2017 Year End lost $4.03 billion. - 10 billion trips in September 2018, up from 5 billion in September 2017 - Gross Bookings From Ridesharing $41.5 billion in 2018 - Revenue From Ridesharing Products $9.2 Billion in 2018…

Couple of things which I find interesting are:

- The whole calculation around "Other Income" are nothing short of financial engineering to show bottom line profitability.

- 24% of Uber's gross bookings come from 5 cities - Los Angeles, New York City, and the San Francisco Bay Area in the United States; London in the United Kingdom; and São Paulo in Brazil

- 15% rides started or were completed at an airport.

Re: Uber S-1

#448

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They can't just raise prices willy-nilly; taxis still exist.

Most people I know hate taxis. Uber can nearly raise prices to parity with cabs.

Hailing cabs by phone (and later on, using the non-Uber hailing services that interact directly with cabs) never worked as well for me as Uber. Takes too long for them to get there, and the incentive for them to abandon your request and pick up a fare they find on the way is too strong.

Taxis only make sense in the very small perecent of the US where you can walk outside and hail one coming down the street.

Re: Uber S-1

#449
post #400

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> no VC will fund their rapid growth (small offerings will still find a niche, assuming they don't get gobbled up And yet Grab and Didi drove Uber out of South East Asia and China, Ola is giving Uber a run for its money in India and now GoJek in turn is challenging Grab. In my recent trip to Tokyo we were mostly advised to take regular cabs Vs Uber in contrast to a year ago. That's literally half the world where they…

They did not get "out competed" in china, a country where competition has nothing to do with success. Likewise in Russia. Grab is the only company to out compete Uber so far.

What about Ola in India?

Re: Uber S-1

#450

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This exact comment chain seemingly occurs in every S1 post.

A long time ago, in a galaxy far far away, companies going public used to already make at least _some_ money...

Zoom is a profitable company that plans to IPO this year: "Zoom has the very rare and valuable financial profile -- it's growing at over 100% a year and it's profitable" [1], they're not extinct!

[1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/petercohan/2019/04/11/zoom-has-...

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