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Uber S-1

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341–350 of 559 posts

Re: Uber S-1

#341

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because that's market collusion, and that is illegal.

Collusion is when the parties coordinate on the price increases. If they both increase prices independently to achieve profitability, then I don't believe that to be illegal.

Even if they didn't collude, they'd be under suspicion of it. Depending on how DOJ wind blows, that could be a big and expensive distraction.

Re: Uber S-1

#342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What moat? All the driver needs to do is load another app on their phone.

What moat? All the user has to do is change the search engine to Bing from Google.

That's right: Google has to constantly be better then Bing or else lose searches. Remember Ask Jeves?

Re: Uber S-1

#343

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Huh? How much does a full time driver earn? Let's say $30000 for the sake of argument. A car that is run as a taxi or rideshare service full time will last maybe three years. So that eould mean $90000 for the driver plus around $40000 for a decent car. A mass produced self driving taxi car that costs more than $130000 seems very unlikely.

If you want to make up unrealistic numbers, sure, then unrealistically a self-driving car is cheaper. But with a self-driving car, operational costs like registration, maintenance, fuel/charging, and insurance, would all have to come out of Waymo's pockets instead of the driver's $30,000k. If the car is being driven 24/7, then maintenance costs will be much higher because of the increased wear and tear, and insurance…

I am not sure if you read my post correctly. Was doubting my parent's point that self driving cars would be too expensive. I was trying to estimate an upper limit below which a self driving car would be cheaper than a car and a driver. So if a self driving car is cheaper than that it should automatically be economical. And I think that a car costing 130k in series is extremely expensive. That gets you a lot of hardware.

Re: Uber S-1

#344
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Includes gain on divestiture of $3,214BB, plus unrealized gain on investments of $1,996BB

Cool Whats that mean again?

1. They sold some business or businesses.

2. They raised the book value of something else they own for some legal reason.

Re: Uber S-1

#345

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quick note that Facebook, unfortunately, has no real competitor for the sheer number of things it does. As soon as one comes out built for non-technical users the way Facebook is - and hopefully is a nonprofit - I’ll go running to it and encourage my friends, too.

> non-technical users what did you mean?

I didn’t write that, but I’d guess easy to use like FB (grandma can use it).

Not setting up your own locally hosted diaspora node.

Re: Uber S-1

#346

So... Let me see if I have this straight: 1. Uber is unprofitable and the only way it can become profitable is to get SDC's 2. Uber is significantly (years) behind Waymo in the SDC space. 3. Waymo will launch SDC taxi services first meaning: - When it puts in an order for SDC components no one else is going to be buying in bulk and thus it can have effectively 100% of capacity of these specialized equipment makers -…

This supposes that Self driving vehicles will be possible in the near future , without a human operator, in every city that Uber operates in. I highly doubt that. At least not in the next 5 years. What is see is Waymo being deployed in select 10 major cities in certain neighborhoods.

Re: Uber S-1

#347

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1.5 billion on R&D, 3 billion on marketing. Uber don't get the income from the rides without the marketing so I don't get why you get to ignore that when working out if they are profitable or not.

Does marketing and R&D cost grow linearly with number of rides though?

The “marketing” cost does when it’s driver / rider incentives. It’s literally selling a $10 ride for $8 by chipping in $2 from the marketing budget.

Re: Uber S-1

#348

As an IPO n00b, I have basic question: Let's say I'm a startup founder with revenues in $10M and want to raise money. Can't I just go straight to IPO instead of making VC rounds? It seems you don't need to be profitable or even have to have great outlook. Meanwhile majority of IPOs are getting magically funded anyway no matter what. On the top of it you get to even keep most of the voting shares. So what are the mini…

I don't know the answers to your specific questions, but note that such late and humongous IPOs are a recent phenomena: https://steveblank.com/2019/04/10/startup-stock-options-why-... My guess is that $10M/yr in revenue is close to enough to IPO. It's just not popular recently.

Some reasons why a company with $10M/year in revenue may not want to IPO:

1. Due to recent regulations (introduced after the 2000 dot-com crash), the fixed cost of going IPO (SOX compliance, putting internal controls in place, audits etc) have significantly gone up.

2. The additional scrutiny and public visibility that comes from going public is a drag on management bandwidth, employee morale and attention.

3. Private money is now plentiful and cheap, so it might actually be cheaper just to take private investors than public.

4. Public markets prefer stable, predictable companies with a known well understood strategy. Consider how often Tesla is in the public eye and how they might have benefited from staying private longer given their unpredictable business and strategy.

Re: Uber S-1

#349
post #334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are going to get hammered on taxes, though. The IPO price sets the income they are taxed on while the price in 6 months determines what they actually take home. The result is that if you’re in California and the stock price falls to 30ish, you effectively take home nothing.

Why is stocked taxed at the IPO value rather than the current value? Relatedly, what happens if you simply sell the stock? Seems to me like that would just generate income you owe taxes on.

Employees get taxed on the value that they vest at IPO, but are locked up from selling for 6 months. The company withholds a percentage, effectively selling a portion at IPO, but it is less than the effective tax rate. I should clarify that this applies to RSUs, not options.

Edit: something similar can happen with options as mentioned, but the mechanics are slightly different.

Re: Uber S-1

#350
post #334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are going to get hammered on taxes, though. The IPO price sets the income they are taxed on while the price in 6 months determines what they actually take home. The result is that if you’re in California and the stock price falls to 30ish, you effectively take home nothing.

Why is stocked taxed at the IPO value rather than the current value? Relatedly, what happens if you simply sell the stock? Seems to me like that would just generate income you owe taxes on.

Aliston is referring to a specific circumstance that screwed many employees during the dot-com boom. If you exercise your options, that creates a taxable event for the difference between your option strike price and the fair market value of the stock on date of exercise. If the stock price subsequently goes down a lot, you can end up with a tax bill greater than the market value of the stocks when the lock-up period ends. It was generally advantageous for employees in the rising stock environment of the dot-com bubble to exercise their options before the IPO, or shortly after. For one, it starts the long-term capital gains timer going, so you can sell for LTCG rates 6 months after the lockup ends rather than a year. Two, the difference between your option strike price and exercise price is taxed as income (usually - for NQs and ISOs over the AMT, but not ISOs in low tax brackets), but the difference between exercise price and sale price is taxed as capital gains. That created a situation where many employees had tax bills on stock worth less than the tax bill.

This situation doesn't apply when you have straight RSUs that you sell when the lockup ends. These are withheld at income tax rates when vesting, and then taxed as capital gains rate when you sell. The IPO price doesn't matter in this case.

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