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Uber S-1

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Re: Uber S-1

#241

Post by smolsky »

So, here a line from their "Consolidated Statements of Operations":

  Other income (expense), net:  139, (16), 4,993
The three numbers representing 2016, 2017 and 2018. The company is _only_ $997M down for 2018 because of that $4,993M item.

Can someone explain what that is? Will it re-occur in the coming years?

Re: Uber S-1

#242

Post by YjSe2GMQ »

sytelus wrote: post #233

As an IPO n00b, I have basic question: Let's say I'm a startup founder with revenues in $10M and want to raise money. Can't I just go straight to IPO instead of making VC rounds? It seems you don't need to be profitable or even have to have great outlook. Meanwhile majority of IPOs are getting magically funded anyway no matter what. On the top of it you get to even keep most of the voting shares. So what are the mini…

I don't know the answers to your specific questions, but note that such late and humongous IPOs are a recent phenomena: https://steveblank.com/2019/04/10/startup-stock-options-why-...

My guess is that $10M/yr in revenue is close to enough to IPO. It's just not popular recently.

Re: Uber S-1

#243

Post by martinald »

ethagknight wrote: post #229
kapurs151 wrote: post #43

While I admit that the losses are staggering, the growth rates are also astounding: Revenue 2016: $3.8bn 2017: $7.9bn 2018: $11.27bn Trips 2016: 1.8bn 2017: 3.7bn 2018: 5.2bn The internet is such a game-changer.

Am I reading that right? they earned $2.16 per trip on average in 2018?

Keep in mind these numbers are Uber's cut, which is probably around 20% in most markets. So the average far is probably around $10, which seems reasonable to me, considering there are some very low cost high volume markets it serves.

Re: Uber S-1

#244

Post by brohee »

rhegart wrote: post #170
partingshots wrote: post #18

So... Let me see if I have this straight: 1. Uber is unprofitable and the only way it can become profitable is to get SDC's 2. Uber is significantly (years) behind Waymo in the SDC space. 3. Waymo will launch SDC taxi services first meaning: - When it puts in an order for SDC components no one else is going to be buying in bulk and thus it can have effectively 100% of capacity of these specialized equipment makers -…

Data. They will sell location data. Mine all transits. Physical location data and daily customer trends will net them billions.

Telcos are already selling that, on more people. Why would Uber inferior dataset would be so valuable...

Re: Uber S-1

#245

Post by freewilly1040 »

will_brown wrote: post #197
panarky wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> can't imagine how Uber is worth anything If the operation doesn't make an economic profit, and if there isn't sufficient moat to defend the operation until it can become profitable, then I agree with you it's not worth anything. But in fact, Uber does have a massive moat -- its network of drivers and riders in thousands of cities around the world. No competitor is even close. It takes tremendous capital expenditure…

>It takes tremendous capital expenditure to build that network What I don’t understand with the gig economy is why the gig workers organize and cut out the platforms. Do the drivers need uber/Lyft? Do renters need Airbnb? Let these companies take on VC build the tech platform, launch, verify the market...then fuck them, leave them holding their own bag while the workers ride off in the sunset. Besides the Founders an…

People vastly underestimate the work it takes to build Lyft/Uber because it's simple to use.

They would need someone to do all the legal/compliance work, validate drivers, handle marketing, handle payments, detect and combat fraud, resolve disputes, and the million other things you don't think about when you use the service.

Re: Uber S-1

#246

Post by oarabbus_ »

panarky wrote: post #35
partingshots wrote: post #18

So... Let me see if I have this straight: 1. Uber is unprofitable and the only way it can become profitable is to get SDC's 2. Uber is significantly (years) behind Waymo in the SDC space. 3. Waymo will launch SDC taxi services first meaning: - When it puts in an order for SDC components no one else is going to be buying in bulk and thus it can have effectively 100% of capacity of these specialized equipment makers -…

> can't imagine how Uber is worth anything If the operation doesn't make an economic profit, and if there isn't sufficient moat to defend the operation until it can become profitable, then I agree with you it's not worth anything. But in fact, Uber does have a massive moat -- its network of drivers and riders in thousands of cities around the world. No competitor is even close. It takes tremendous capital expenditure…

>But in fact, Uber does have a massive moat -- its network of drivers and riders in thousands of cities around the world. No competitor is even close.

Ola in India, Didi in China... both are expanding internationally.

If Lyft somehow manages to offer riders consistently cheaper fares (say, 50% off the Uber fare for 1 month) people will switch in droves.

Re: Uber S-1

#247

Post by return0 »

tom-_- wrote: post #142

The cost of entry into this space is much greater than I think most people realize. It's not "building an app". It's building a balanced, efficient marketplace. This means complex matching, pricing and routing algorithms that have been developed for almost a decade. It's also about working with regulations at the city level and building a reliable labor force of contractors to supply the marketplace in every new city…

similar apps have popped up in many places where uber is not allowed or limited. it doesn't look that hard.

Re: Uber S-1

#248

Post by arcticbull »

smallgovt wrote: post #54
partingshots wrote: post #18

So... Let me see if I have this straight: 1. Uber is unprofitable and the only way it can become profitable is to get SDC's 2. Uber is significantly (years) behind Waymo in the SDC space. 3. Waymo will launch SDC taxi services first meaning: - When it puts in an order for SDC components no one else is going to be buying in bulk and thus it can have effectively 100% of capacity of these specialized equipment makers -…

Can't Uber become profitable by raising prices and lowering costs? They have $40B in gross rideshare bookings and $3B in real losses for 2018. Let's assume 20% of their costs are fixed and 80% are variable. What might happen if they raise prices by 10%? Gross bookings drop by 20% / Revenue per booking increase by 10% => $35.2B in gross bookings Variable costs drop by 30% (due to lower driver acquisition costs since t…

I'm not sure why you think 20% of costs are fixed and 80% are variable, or that the elasticity figures are what you suggest they are.

Realistically, Uber has a higher cost basis than a taxi because taxis cut down on insurance and fleet expenses through pooling. As such, Uber is not really able to beat them on price. There's no evidence to support the idea that people are willing to pay more than taxis to use Uber or Lyft. Customers have virtually zero loyalty and so do drivers. If Uber raised prices by 10% and Lyft didn't, wouldn't bookings decrease further? Why do you think it'd by just 20%?

Your napkin math makes sense given your numbers but we don't have any data to back them up.

Re: SDCs, didn't a leaked internal study of theirs a few years back indicate that SDCs wouldn't move their margins by more than 5%?

Re: Uber S-1

#249

Post by sytelus »

whoisjuan wrote: post #17

Just a brief scan and it looks much healthier and diversified than Lyft. Of course far from a perfect business or anything. Their revenue is 5X Lyft's revenue. Doesn't look good for Lyft's stock to be honest. I wouldn't be surprised if after their first earnings release, Lyft stock goes below 40 USD.

Just looked at it... wow LYFT is losing ~1% value each day adjusting for S&P variations.

Re: Uber S-1

#250

Post by gonehome »

karmelapple wrote: post #237
gonehome wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed - Facebook has a network effect/moat because a new service that's better in every way is useless if your friends aren't on it. Getting the network to migrate is hard and when this does happen FB is quick to buy the threat (Instagram, WhatsApp) or compete and kill them (Snap). Nobody holds an allegiance to Lyft or Uber - they pick whichever is currently a better deal for both driving and riding. Uber's recent l…

Quick note that Facebook, unfortunately, has no real competitor for the sheer number of things it does. As soon as one comes out built for non-technical users the way Facebook is - and hopefully is a nonprofit - I’ll go running to it and encourage my friends, too.

I’d want one that’s just an online account with a single picture, name, address, phone number that lets you have friends. No posting - basically just a contact list that’s always up to date because people update themselves.

Keybase could be this.

The main way to get people in would be a focus on event scheduling relying on twilio and sms for including users that don’t have accounts.

Make it cheap but not free ($1/month for people with more than 25 contacts) and advertise no ads or tracking ever.

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