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Uber S-1

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Re: Uber S-1

#391

Post by SOLAR_FIELDS »

xiphias2 wrote: post #106
mckenna wrote: post #79

Horrible numbers! They cannot get the unit economics to work. In order to make up for that fundamental flaw, they are trying to throw a number of things at the wall(UberEats/UberFrieght/SD/Bikes/etc) and see if something sticks. Each of those other bets seems poor, thus far. They better focus on getting their original business in shape(call a cab via an app). I would be curious to know if they tried to raise prices i…

The real problem that I see with using Über in South America is that the service is not improving. - The time estimations are way off - The app doesn't know one-way roads well, although they should have a lot of training data on the routes I go on - They allow drivers haggling for the price by forcing users to pay with cash instead of credit card. - The app doesn't know about the road tarifs sometimes, and the driver…

I’m curious to know more about ridesharing in South America, specifically the haggle portion. If the credit card was allowed it seems like it would alleviate a decent amount of the issues you named in your post. Why would they disallow credit cards? Is it a cultural problem, infrastructure problem or something else?

The other issues you mentioned seem to be tech related in that as companies that offer navigation services improve their data and services in South America the experience there should markedly improve.

Re: Uber S-1

#392

Post by mrnobody_67 »

c1b wrote: post #366
ajayjain wrote: post #311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Loss aversion tells us that gains and losses have different emotional impact. In particular, perceived losses supposedly have a strong negative impact on people. [1] If Lyft employees value their shares at the IPO price, they might be feeling a loss all the way from 72 to 61. [1] https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057/9781137544254_13

You’re just arguing for the sake of arguing. It’s a net positive. Positive is good.

But anchoring.... people anchor to the all time high.

Re: Uber S-1

#394

Post by noway421 »

goldcd wrote: post #224

I'm not an Uber-hater - but they don't offer anything unique and the valuation is insane. Their problem is that if they rack up prices/commission to pay off their investors, then both their drivers and riders will simply switch to the next pre-IPO company that will connect them for less. Uber in my mind is like all the other social media sites. We appreciate that they're the best thing to connect us at this time - bu…

I can imagine such a person. If rider values reliability, they would always open Uber app straight away and get a ride in 5 seconds. I don't think the argument of people switching to a cheaper service actually holds true that much. People don't shop around for a ridesharing service, they open up something that they know will work and work fast.

Re: Uber S-1

#395

Post by acranox »

mrhappyunhappy wrote: post #272
dockd wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aren't most index funds, almost by definition, required to buy their shares? If Vanguard owns a piece of every listed company, they're going to buy Uber at pretty much any price, right?

I wonder about this too. What if I, as an index fund holder do not want the fund to buy up junk like lyft and uber?

I think that’s where “socially responsible” investing comes into play. ie https://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/VFTSX/betaquote.html

Re: Uber S-1

#396

Post by mrnobody_67 »

esoterica wrote: post #335
saberience wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, paper millionaires. You're only an actual millionaire once you sell your stock. You become a paper millionaire when the IPO happens and you gain liquidity and price increases.

According to your logic there is no such thing as an actual millionaire. No sane person keeps a million dollars sitting in cash in a savings account, they invest it somewhere (equity, bonds, real estate, etc).

Lots of people keep 10-20% of assets in cash.

if you have $20 or $30m, you'd almost certainly have $1m in cash sitting around.

Re: Uber S-1

#397

Post by evrydayhustling »

ManishR wrote: post #355

People here seem to think that Uber/Lyft do not have any competitive moat. I disagree. What we seem to forget is that just because a VC can burn boatloads of money to capture ridesharing market from Uber/Lyft doesn't mean that they would. From a game theoretic POV, Uber and Lyft have signaled that they're ready to fight for survival in markets they are established in. Unless as a startup founder you can demonstrate t…

They can be fought in local markets via regulation and specialization. Global brand is expensive, a long-term liability in local politics, and doesn't get them that much in local markets because it is so easy for both drivers and customers to use multiple apps.

Re: Uber S-1

#398

Post by benburleson »

ManishR wrote: post #355

People here seem to think that Uber/Lyft do not have any competitive moat. I disagree. What we seem to forget is that just because a VC can burn boatloads of money to capture ridesharing market from Uber/Lyft doesn't mean that they would. From a game theoretic POV, Uber and Lyft have signaled that they're ready to fight for survival in markets they are established in. Unless as a startup founder you can demonstrate t…

They can't just raise prices willy-nilly; taxis still exist.

Re: Uber S-1

#399

Post by jpster »

chollida1 wrote: post #10

Note: - Expected to be teh largest IPO this year in the US. - 10th largest all time - trying to raise around $10B - 2018 Year Ended Revenue $11.27 billion - 2018 Year Ended Net Income $997 million - 2017 Year End lost $4.03 billion. - 10 billion trips in September 2018, up from 5 billion in September 2017 - Gross Bookings From Ridesharing $41.5 billion in 2018 - Revenue From Ridesharing Products $9.2 Billion in 2018…

I’m curious about their Treasury department. How do they manage the float bet. when users pay and when drivers are paid? How do they manage FX? A sharp treasury team is quite an asset.

Re: Uber S-1

#400

Post by sfifs »

ManishR wrote: post #355

People here seem to think that Uber/Lyft do not have any competitive moat. I disagree. What we seem to forget is that just because a VC can burn boatloads of money to capture ridesharing market from Uber/Lyft doesn't mean that they would. From a game theoretic POV, Uber and Lyft have signaled that they're ready to fight for survival in markets they are established in. Unless as a startup founder you can demonstrate t…

> no VC will fund their rapid growth (small offerings will still find a niche, assuming they don't get gobbled up

And yet Grab and Didi drove Uber out of South East Asia and China, Ola is giving Uber a run for its money in India and now GoJek in turn is challenging Grab. In my recent trip to Tokyo we were mostly advised to take regular cabs Vs Uber in contrast to a year ago. That's literally half the world where they're getting out competed.

When reasoning doesn't line up with facts, there are usually flaws in the logic. One possible flaw it turns out is that well off globe trotters or even people who frequently travel across cities in a country and would love to use the same app everywhere likely form a small % of total cab trips. Majority of trips are just local trips by an area's residents. So locally, majority just goes with whoever offers better service and relevance. Cutting Price can trump over these but by going public, bottom line became a lot more important to Uber and Lyft - so this isn't likely a viable strategy. Another possible flaw is that the compute required to support this is likely commoditized and there's not likely as much competitive advantage in data.

So it's going to be interesting...

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