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Uber S-1

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Re: Uber S-1

#301

Post by cheerlessbog »

panarky wrote: post #286
ulfw wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is so not true. There is no 'moat' whatsoever. No Uber drivers are exclusive. In the US I see tons of cars with Uber AND Lyft stickers on. In SEA it was extremely common the same drivers had the Uber AND Grab app installed (before Uber gave up).

> No Uber drivers are exclusive Bing is just a click away from Google. Hulu is just a click away from Netflix. My local grocery store is just one block away from a different grocery store. Exclusivity isn't required to defend a large network. People are creatures of habit, and it would take a big innovation in the service or massive subsidies to dismantle that network.

Except myself and apparently many others in this thread switch easily between Uber and Lyft, etc, and anecdotally the drivers do too.

Re: Uber S-1

#302

Post by gcb0 »

kornish wrote: post #9
cheeze wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"We have incurred significant losses since inception, including in the United States and other major markets. We expect our operating expenses to increase significantly in the foreseeable future, and we may not achieve profitability."

"We have incurred significant losses since inception and may never achieve profitability" is pretty standard in S-1s. Nothing particularly interesting in these sentences.

in silicon valley S-1s.

Re: Uber S-1

#303

Post by gonehome »

gowld wrote: post #278
gonehome wrote: post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’d want one that’s just an online account with a single picture, name, address, phone number that lets you have friends. No posting - basically just a contact list that’s always up to date because people update themselves. Keybase could be this. The main way to get people in would be a focus on event scheduling relying on twilio and sms for including users that don’t have accounts. Make it cheap but not free ($1/mon…

What would motivate everyone you know to use this service?

Convenient way to do event scheduling - some friends I know are not on FB so it’s a pain currently.

Also having up to date contacts to stay in touch. Phone numbers and addresses change and it’s hard to know when that happens (and currently most people don’t put this on FB).

Re: Uber S-1

#304

Post by shmageggy »

ian_badfellow wrote: post #155
partingshots wrote: post #18

So... Let me see if I have this straight: 1. Uber is unprofitable and the only way it can become profitable is to get SDC's 2. Uber is significantly (years) behind Waymo in the SDC space. 3. Waymo will launch SDC taxi services first meaning: - When it puts in an order for SDC components no one else is going to be buying in bulk and thus it can have effectively 100% of capacity of these specialized equipment makers -…

Do you work in SDC development? There's a difference between making it work for a small suburb area in Phoenix some of the times and making it work everywhere all the time. And the problem with ride-sharing applications is that unless it works everywhere nobody is going to use it. Making it work everywhere for all circumstances is hard. Like really hard. There's a difference between an intervention-free ride and an a…

I wouldn't call it naive to believe it will work eventually, if the time scale for eventually is unspecified; after all, we are an existence proof that it's at least possible. Pinning down that timescale is the tricky part though.

Also, your username is hilariously apt.

Re: Uber S-1

#305

Post by gonehome »

cheerlessbog wrote: post #293
gonehome wrote: post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’d want one that’s just an online account with a single picture, name, address, phone number that lets you have friends. No posting - basically just a contact list that’s always up to date because people update themselves. Keybase could be this. The main way to get people in would be a focus on event scheduling relying on twilio and sms for including users that don’t have accounts. Make it cheap but not free ($1/mon…

Could LinkedIn go this way...bridge from its business network to casual social network also?

I doubt it - linked in is a mess. They also have too much tied up with recruiters being their real users.

I’d want something simple.

Re: Uber S-1

#306

Post by alphagrep12345 »

My observations

1. Humans aren't gonna trust SDCs easily. The way I look at it, SDCs would be used only to transport freight for a few years before people can trust it enough for ride sharing. I personally believe that companies should focus on self-driving trucking rather than self-driving cars and pivot into ride sharing after a few years of successful freight transport. People would trust the leader in the self-driving truck industry more than a top-notch but unproven tech company. Let alone cars, as simple as elevators in the buildings were operated by actual people before becoming completely autonomous.

2. Uber is not just in the USA. SDCs aren't gonna be approved everywhere, even after it becomes legal in the USA. Uber still has access to that market, but Waymo magically can't.

3. Uber has other verticals too (Uber Eats).

Re: Uber S-1

#307

Post by seldonnn »

tinus_hn wrote: post #220
SimonPStevens wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uber is a non-profit version of Uber. They made a 10% loss last year. So a non-profit (assuming they intend to at least break even) would actually need to pay the drivers less.

That’s an amusing proposition but a true non-profit could have more advantages like tax breaks and volunteer staff.

You don’t pay tax if you don’t make money.

Re: Uber S-1

#308

Post by kickopotomus »

panarky wrote: post #286
ulfw wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is so not true. There is no 'moat' whatsoever. No Uber drivers are exclusive. In the US I see tons of cars with Uber AND Lyft stickers on. In SEA it was extremely common the same drivers had the Uber AND Grab app installed (before Uber gave up).

> No Uber drivers are exclusive Bing is just a click away from Google. Hulu is just a click away from Netflix. My local grocery store is just one block away from a different grocery store. Exclusivity isn't required to defend a large network. People are creatures of habit, and it would take a big innovation in the service or massive subsidies to dismantle that network.

I agree, which is why I believe Uber's biggest threat is Waymo. Waymo is uniquely positioned to absolutely demolish Uber almost overnight. They have the Google brand and financial backing. Their network of users is already in place as well (Google Maps).

Re: Uber S-1

#309

Post by mckenna »

kornish wrote: post #9
cheeze wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"We have incurred significant losses since inception, including in the United States and other major markets. We expect our operating expenses to increase significantly in the foreseeable future, and we may not achieve profitability."

"We have incurred significant losses since inception and may never achieve profitability" is pretty standard in S-1s. Nothing particularly interesting in these sentences.

Really? Silicon Valley is churning out trashy IPOs of late, and so it becomes the standard?

Re: Uber S-1

#310

Post by scarejunba »

andbberger wrote: post #292
smallgovt wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can't Uber become profitable by raising prices and lowering costs? They have $40B in gross rideshare bookings and $3B in real losses for 2018. Let's assume 20% of their costs are fixed and 80% are variable. What might happen if they raise prices by 10%? Gross bookings drop by 20% / Revenue per booking increase by 10% => $35.2B in gross bookings Variable costs drop by 30% (due to lower driver acquisition costs since t…

you sound like a CEO. this analysis is... insane. your numbers aren't estimations, they're just nonsense. a state of oversupplied drivers is not at equilibrium, the drivers are going to leave until they're not supplied anymore. oops, now you have to acquire drivers again. so, so much dunning-kruger

Interesting. Is "sound like a CEO" meant to be an insult? On a site meant for startup founders? Weird.
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