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Uber S-1

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201–210 of 559 posts

Re: Uber S-1

#201

So... Let me see if I have this straight: 1. Uber is unprofitable and the only way it can become profitable is to get SDC's 2. Uber is significantly (years) behind Waymo in the SDC space. 3. Waymo will launch SDC taxi services first meaning: - When it puts in an order for SDC components no one else is going to be buying in bulk and thus it can have effectively 100% of capacity of these specialized equipment makers -…

Doesn't matter if Uber is actually worth anything - it matters if a lot of people think Uber is worth anything :)

Re: Uber S-1

#202
post #142

The cost of entry into this space is much greater than I think most people realize. It's not "building an app". It's building a balanced, efficient marketplace. This means complex matching, pricing and routing algorithms that have been developed for almost a decade. It's also about working with regulations at the city level and building a reliable labor force of contractors to supply the marketplace in every new city…

The cost of entry might be higher than other spaces but I think automating those aspects will become cheaper and easier to do over time. Actually the cost of entry being high seems like a good reason to go public "so quickly", atleast to me. I don't see any other ride sharing IPOs happening anytime soon and investors are desperate to buy into the concept of a stable active marketplace as a product.

Re: Uber S-1

#203
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> can't imagine how Uber is worth anything If the operation doesn't make an economic profit, and if there isn't sufficient moat to defend the operation until it can become profitable, then I agree with you it's not worth anything. But in fact, Uber does have a massive moat -- its network of drivers and riders in thousands of cities around the world. No competitor is even close. It takes tremendous capital expenditure…

>It takes tremendous capital expenditure to build that network What I don’t understand with the gig economy is why the gig workers organize and cut out the platforms. Do the drivers need uber/Lyft? Do renters need Airbnb? Let these companies take on VC build the tech platform, launch, verify the market...then fuck them, leave them holding their own bag while the workers ride off in the sunset. Besides the Founders an…

People who like low prices might not like it, because the main reason Uber, Lyft, etc are cheap is that they use VC money to subsidize rides.

Re: Uber S-1

#204

So... Let me see if I have this straight: 1. Uber is unprofitable and the only way it can become profitable is to get SDC's 2. Uber is significantly (years) behind Waymo in the SDC space. 3. Waymo will launch SDC taxi services first meaning: - When it puts in an order for SDC components no one else is going to be buying in bulk and thus it can have effectively 100% of capacity of these specialized equipment makers -…

Can't Uber become profitable by raising prices and lowering costs? They have $40B in gross rideshare bookings and $3B in real losses for 2018. Let's assume 20% of their costs are fixed and 80% are variable. What might happen if they raise prices by 10%? Gross bookings drop by 20% / Revenue per booking increase by 10% => $35.2B in gross bookings Variable costs drop by 30% (due to lower driver acquisition costs since t…

Your thesis is supported by their financial statements. Their costs are indicative of a company focused on growth. As revenues continue to grow the can scale back marketing and administrative costs as a percentage of revenue to make profits potential. This company has a lot of potential based on the numbers alone... the real problem is the uncertainty in the market for ride and the tech

Re: Uber S-1

#205
post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow, that many people are ordering delivery McDonald's? Maybe McDonald's should start delivery services in some markets itself then?

Why would McDonald's want to do the delivery if Uber volunteers to do it losing money?

Exploiting a business partner that is operating at a loss is a bad move when said partner is providing a significant part of your revenue. You are placing that revenue in jeopardy without good reason.

But in the McDonalds/Uber case I don't think that Uner is imortant enough to McDonalds.

Re: Uber S-1

#206

So... Let me see if I have this straight: 1. Uber is unprofitable and the only way it can become profitable is to get SDC's 2. Uber is significantly (years) behind Waymo in the SDC space. 3. Waymo will launch SDC taxi services first meaning: - When it puts in an order for SDC components no one else is going to be buying in bulk and thus it can have effectively 100% of capacity of these specialized equipment makers -…

In LA, Uber recently reduced the per minute rate from 80 cents to 60 cents. This was after increasing the rates in Sept 18. Their annoucment of the rate decline was preceded by hours until it was effective.

Prior to this week, Uber had a consecutive ride bonus for 3-rides in a row that would add $7 to 11. But the app would malfunction often or not alert you, and break the streak. Almost everyday I complained but Uber never conceded and never gave me the small bonus.

This week, the consecutive ride bonuses are gone. Replaced by a flat $185 bonus for 70 rides in 7-days to $305 for 120 rides. Previously the biggest ride bonuses would require you to drive 11 hours a day consecutively to hit. And if you did 25% or 50% you’d get 10-15% of the bonus.

My current rate is $23/hour minus roughly $5-6 for gas, depreciation, car and insurance. My rent in LA is $3000/month.

Perhaps $17-18 an hour is fair but Uber’s tactics seem incredibly malicious and ever-changing. I feel like they are exploiting drivers unnecessarily although it is nice to have income whenever I need it.

There’s also tons of bad drivers, they encourage you to use the Uber map system which is seriously flawed, doesn’t calculate traffic and is semi-dangerous. They don’t advise drivers how to do basic tips to navigate traffic.

It could be so much better but it’s weird corporate strategies mixed with bad execution. The negatively Uber generates is a serious problem for their brand and I can’t imagine they’ll exist in 10-years based on how they decide things.

Re: Uber S-1

#207

So... Let me see if I have this straight: 1. Uber is unprofitable and the only way it can become profitable is to get SDC's 2. Uber is significantly (years) behind Waymo in the SDC space. 3. Waymo will launch SDC taxi services first meaning: - When it puts in an order for SDC components no one else is going to be buying in bulk and thus it can have effectively 100% of capacity of these specialized equipment makers -…

> 1. Uber is unprofitable and the only way it can become profitable is to get SDC's So I'm not following this closely, but why is Uber unprofitable? I mean the app worked last time I was in the US and surely can't be that expensive to develop and maintain.

Because most of the income from the rider goes directly to the driver.

Re: Uber S-1

#208
post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Does it, though? It absolutely takes tremendous capital expenditure to build the network. Uber has an accumulated deficit of $20 billion precisely because they subsidized both drivers and riders to build the two-sided network. It doesn't have to be winner-take-all. A duopoly in most medium to large cities is perfectly viable. But you won't see dozens of competitors because the drivers and riders would wait too long…

> It absolutely takes tremendous capital expenditure to build > the network. I always think some Uber drivers shall copy Uber and run a non-profit version of Uber to compete on pricing. What can prevent this?

Have you seen RideAustin? https://rideaustin.com

Re: Uber S-1

#209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is going to be competing with other taxi/ride share services with all the cost advantages of SDC vehicles while its competitors are paying human drivers (and have basically no fat to cut from their current pricing) It's going to be a very long time before self-driving cars are cheaper than cheap cars with human drivers. It's very possible that Uber might reach an acceptable level of self-driving capabilities befor…

Huh? How much does a full time driver earn? Let's say $30000 for the sake of argument. A car that is run as a taxi or rideshare service full time will last maybe three years. So that eould mean $90000 for the driver plus around $40000 for a decent car. A mass produced self driving taxi car that costs more than $130000 seems very unlikely.

Plus a self driving taxi could run 24/7 while a driver likely only works 40-50 hours a week (at least at the $30k/year price point)

Re: Uber S-1

#210
post #35

So... Let me see if I have this straight: 1. Uber is unprofitable and the only way it can become profitable is to get SDC's 2. Uber is significantly (years) behind Waymo in the SDC space. 3. Waymo will launch SDC taxi services first meaning: - When it puts in an order for SDC components no one else is going to be buying in bulk and thus it can have effectively 100% of capacity of these specialized equipment makers -…

> can't imagine how Uber is worth anything If the operation doesn't make an economic profit, and if there isn't sufficient moat to defend the operation until it can become profitable, then I agree with you it's not worth anything. But in fact, Uber does have a massive moat -- its network of drivers and riders in thousands of cities around the world. No competitor is even close. It takes tremendous capital expenditure…

That is so not true. There is no 'moat' whatsoever.

No Uber drivers are exclusive. In the US I see tons of cars with Uber AND Lyft stickers on. In SEA it was extremely common the same drivers had the Uber AND Grab app installed (before Uber gave up).

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