The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade • Hacker News Board

Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade

#151

Post by behindmyscreen » Fri, Apr 05, 2019, 6:52 PM UTC

tootie wrote: post #120

ajross wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but the government can. The 2008 crisis didn't happen in deposit banking, but it was effectively a "bank run" in the same sense you're talking about -- all the assets banks could normally use to draw on to meet obligations froze up, and they ran out of money. And the government stepped in, becoming a lender of last resort. And it worked (not well, maybe, but it worked). Saying "the economy is powered by belief"…

I think the absolutely titanic levels of quantitative easing that came and went in the last crisis can only be viewed as an unequivocal vote of confidence in our financial system. Consumers and investors got scared and shut down their buying, but we printed out way back to heaven and no one batted an eye. Fiat currency belongs in the pantheon of history's greatest inventions alongside fire, the wheel and electricity.

I agree. Without fiat currency, the US would have crumbled into a pile of blood soaked rubble.

Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade

#152

Post by behindmyscreen » Fri, Apr 05, 2019, 6:53 PM UTC

xxpor wrote: post #18

jacquesm wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The whole economy is powered by belief. No bank would be able to handle a bank run.

Because people believe in the FDIC, not that there won't ever be a bank run.

Believe in it? Trusting FDIC is tantamount to trusting the full faith and credit of the US Government. If you don’t trust it what are you doing here?

Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade

#153

Post by tathougies » Fri, Apr 05, 2019, 6:53 PM UTC

turtlecloud wrote: post #74

ishjoh wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I invest in index funds that follow the S&P 500 according to a formula. The data shows that they tend to outperform managed funds in the long term. With so many people following the same strategy it will be interesting to see if that stays true long term, but the problem is the same as it ever was. How do you identify an active fund manager that will outperform the market over a long time period? Do they still outper…

Real life doesn't work like that. Not everyone can put money into a magic ETF that guarentees returns. The passive index funds are piggy backing off the work of active investors. Thought experiment: If everyone put money into an index fund that guarantees returns, what is the difference between that and a Ponzi scheme?

> If everyone put money into an index fund that guarantees returns, what is the difference between that and a Ponzi scheme?

No index fund guarantees returns, so the question is a non-sequitur.

With regard to the question of how does the fund keep value -- the fund holds the equities that are in the index. The equity prices rise and fall with the market, which is hopefully based on the fundamental discounted future value of all cash flows from the company.

Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade

#154

Post by patfla » Fri, Apr 05, 2019, 6:56 PM UTC

pascalxus wrote: post #13

And yet, markets are nearly at all time highs. I'd like to see a breakdown of who's buying stocks/equities. EDIT: I know earnings are high, but much of our growth over the last 20 years has been during 2-4% GDP deficit. I don't think that's been priced into the markets. Markets may be assuming that the deficit party will continue.

Share buybacks have probably been the single largest component of 2019's market rise.

https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=2019+st...

in particular:

"This Stock Market Rally Has Everything, Except Investors" from the NYT.

Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade

#155

Post by geggam » Fri, Apr 05, 2019, 6:57 PM UTC

manfredo wrote: post #147

geggam wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you cant see ? A corporation with employees becomes a member of the Federal Reserve. The job is to generate money from nothing, and get paid for it. So as a federal reserve bank you create money, charge for doing so and then you change hats from federal reserve to local private bank and loan that money to the private sector charging profits for doing so. You charge fees coming and going get salaries for both job…

Yes, banks can join the federal reserve system and other banks can be FDIC insured. But how do you go from that to "the Federal reserve is not part of the government". It's the central bank of the United States. Its chairman is appointed by the government. All profits are paid back to the United States. Is about as independent from the government as the FBI. Saying that the Federal reserve system is not part of the g…

:)

we are getting closer.

Now... lets say a company was allowed to buy shares in the govt and be able to act as a govt agency while remaining a private company.

So they contract themselves to do some work, pay themselves for setting up the contract, switch hats then do the work. Bonus if they don't do the job right they simply aren't liable.

Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade

#156

Post by behindmyscreen » Fri, Apr 05, 2019, 6:57 PM UTC

geggam wrote: post #90

manfredo wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really. The government has the authority to print money. They can ensure banks never run out of cash. But it may cause inflation if they overdo it. I suppose inflation is paying for it, but I get the feelings that the semantics around whether inflation is "paying" for things have changed recently (or maybe I've been hearing too many ardent MMT evangelists).

The ability to print money was outsourced to the Federal Reserve, while regulated by the govt it is not the govt. When we "borrow" money from the Fed it is at interest. We have created a debt based system where everything is a borrow. Fiat currencies are based on the value of the peoples ability to create value. When the people owe the banks more value than they can generate they are bankrupt. When the people and the…

Printing money was alway the job of private banking in the US. Bank notes were used in the 19th century but sucked because podunk bank’s note wasn’t accepted in NYC...the federal reserve fixed that by centralizing all bank note creation to a consortium of reserve banks.

Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade

#157

Post by ryansmccoy » Fri, Apr 05, 2019, 7:05 PM UTC

Leary wrote: post #26

This metric is incomplete without noting the number of hires. This does not mean a net loss in jobs.

i don't know why Reedx decided to post this story, but would be interested in his/her reason for posting it.

Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade

#158

Post by dragonwriter » Fri, Apr 05, 2019, 7:06 PM UTC

geggam wrote: post #134

manfredo wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The federal reserve is indeed part of the government. It has separations from the executive branch but it is indeed part of the government. The same website you linked to has an FAQ page dedicated to clearing up this misconception: https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/about_14986.htm > The Federal Reserve System is not "owned" by anyone. Although parts of the Federal Reserve System share some characteristics with priv…

Incorrect. That is like saying any corporation publicly traded yet regulated by the govt is now part of the govt. Any bank can apply to become a member and buy shares of the federal reserve. They simply are regulated by the govt.

> That is like saying any corporation publicly traded yet regulated by the govt is now part of the govt.

Why does it have to be publicly traded? Corporations are exercises of government power by which people (who may themselves be corporations) are revocably delegated special powers created by government. They are, in a very real sense, aspects of the chartering government.

To the extent that they are permitted to serve basically unconstrained private purposes, that's not because they aren't part of the government, but because of what the hosting society believes about the proper application of government power.

Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade

#159

Post by mywittyname » Fri, Apr 05, 2019, 7:11 PM UTC

CydeWeys wrote: post #101

mtw wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just projections or worries. Companies have real hard data, such as sales pipeline, inventories, orders etc. If your sales pipeline is down, inventory is stocking up, and your warehouse is idle compared to a year before, it is a manager's job to lay off employees. a few interesting reports: https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/aydpbu/first_h... https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1110161228507348…

I think their point is that all of that hard data may be a result of self-fulfilling prophecies of other companies cutting back their business because there's a general sense that a recession might be coming.

I mean, if you're running a burger joint and fewer people are coming in to buy burgers, why would you continue to order the same amount of beef each week?

I get that the real world more complicated than this, as forecasting can be done for months out, but businesses can't magically fix the economy by continuing to spend the way they have been because it isn't sustainable.

Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade

#160

Post by nostrademons » Fri, Apr 05, 2019, 7:15 PM UTC

ajross wrote: post #87

jacquesm wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The whole economy is powered by belief. No bank would be able to handle a bank run.

Yes, but the government can. The 2008 crisis didn't happen in deposit banking, but it was effectively a "bank run" in the same sense you're talking about -- all the assets banks could normally use to draw on to meet obligations froze up, and they ran out of money. And the government stepped in, becoming a lender of last resort. And it worked (not well, maybe, but it worked). Saying "the economy is powered by belief"…

The government is powered by belief too. When a critical mass of people start saying "This is not my government, and I'm not subject to its authority", it ceases to be the government. This last happened (unsuccessfully) in the U.S. in 1861, but is a regular occurrence in many other parts of the world.

The effect of 2009's QE was to couple the full faith & credit of the financial system with the full faith & credit of the government, effectively backstopping the financial industry with the trust that the government had built up over 230 years. This worked, but it was not free. The cost was an erosion of that trust in government, which you see in movements like Occupy Wall Street, the Tea Party, Black Lives Matter, the alt-right, Trump, sovereign citizens, and Democratic Socialism.

As long as things are good, the government (and the financial system) can continue to build up that trust that they spent down in the financial crisis, and we'll have weathered the storm with no problems. Things are still not good for many people. And so the risk is that if there is another crisis in the next few years, while that trust is depleted, the whole society will come crashing down, like Syria or Venezuela. Not just a financial crisis, but a political crisis as well, because the two of them are now coupled in peoples' minds.