The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade • Hacker News Board

Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade

#81

Post by SketchySeaBeast » Fri, Apr 05, 2019, 5:00 PM UTC

reallydude wrote: post #54

systemBuilder wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Totally wrong! The employment population ratio age 25-54, just climbed out of a sewer where it has wallowed BELOW the lowest gross employment ratio since the recession bottom in 1992! Unemployment has been HORRIBLE since Bush left office! https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060 You read too many Clinton-era Arkansas lies. Clinton's racist "discouraged workers" unemployment stats - that only racists quote - say…

It's interesting how there's so much "information" about how well the employment rate was over the last 10 years, but everyone knows people who became/are unemployed (or part time only employed). Somehow every just assumes it's a localized situation to them, despite the ubiquity across observers. Part of it is the misinformation, but is that the only factor in the strength in the mischaracterized narrative? This stil…

Assuming the unemployment rate is > 0%, shouldn't you know someone who's unemployed, just by the logic that there are unemployed people, and you know people?

Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade

#82

Post by steve76 » Fri, Apr 05, 2019, 5:00 PM UTC

mikeash wrote: post #62

xxpor wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because people believe in the FDIC, not that there won't ever be a bank run.

The FDIC couldn’t handle a run on every bank. If people thought there would be a massive run, they’d rush to withdraw their money despite the FDIC. So it’s really both: belief in the FDIC’s ability to handle small runs gives people the belief that there won’t be big ones.

I believe the majority of the balance sheets are on the sideline, based on the demand for currency in the world? So the real fallout from a bank run will be price inflation without wage inflation?

Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade

#83

Post by manfredo » Fri, Apr 05, 2019, 5:00 PM UTC

geggam wrote: post #56

xxpor wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because people believe in the FDIC, not that there won't ever be a bank run.

Interesting isnt it ? The banks are secured by the govt which happens to be the biggest debtor to the banks. Problem being the govt is really the people and when it comes down to it the people are on the hook for their own debts regardless of how it gets paid. AND we bail out the corporations who spend too much.

Not really. The government has the authority to print money. They can ensure banks never run out of cash. But it may cause inflation if they overdo it.

I suppose inflation is paying for it, but I get the feelings that the semantics around whether inflation is "paying" for things have changed recently (or maybe I've been hearing too many ardent MMT evangelists).

Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade

#84

Post by mtw » Fri, Apr 05, 2019, 5:00 PM UTC

BluSyn wrote: post #2

"The report said worry about an economic slowdown was the main driver of companies' layoff intentions." I sometimes wonder if these sorts of economic projections end up being self-fulfilling prophecies. If everyone tightens up spending because they expect a recession, that essentially guarantees there will be one.

It's not just projections or worries. Companies have real hard data, such as sales pipeline, inventories, orders etc. If your sales pipeline is down, inventory is stocking up, and your warehouse is idle compared to a year before, it is a manager's job to lay off employees.

a few interesting reports: https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/aydpbu/first_h... https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1110161228507348992

Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade

#85

Post by throw0101a » Fri, Apr 05, 2019, 5:02 PM UTC

xxpor wrote: post #18

jacquesm wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The whole economy is powered by belief. No bank would be able to handle a bank run.

Because people believe in the FDIC, not that there won't ever be a bank run.

I don't think that if you picked the average person of the street that they'd know about FDIC.

First, too many people don't have a lot of 'cash' savings. Second, as long as most people's debit and credit cards continued to work, they probably would not notice bank receivership.

Most folks: don't have savings, have a chunk of money tied up in their retirement savings, and another chunk tied up in property/residence.

Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade

#86

Post by SketchySeaBeast » Fri, Apr 05, 2019, 5:04 PM UTC

Rooster61 wrote: post #53

vkou wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The stock market finds the 'correct' price for stocks, by aggregating conflicting beliefs and predictions of traders. When the beliefs are overwhelmingly pessimistic, stock prices drop. Why should companies behave any differently with respect to layoffs?

> The stock market finds the 'correct' price for stocks, by aggregating conflicting beliefs and predictions of traders. 10-20 years ago, maybe. It's now driven largely by semi-autonomous algorithms monitoring swings/trends. I'd argue that it finds a 'simulated' price rather than a 'correct' price. The stock market is much less susceptible to emotional speculation than it used to be, for better or for worse. A quick g…

But won't these algorithms be based upon the whatever the meatspace traders were feeling? We've added indirection, but I don't know if it's in any way better.

Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade

#87

Post by ajross » Fri, Apr 05, 2019, 5:04 PM UTC

jacquesm wrote: post #7

BluSyn wrote: post #2

"The report said worry about an economic slowdown was the main driver of companies' layoff intentions." I sometimes wonder if these sorts of economic projections end up being self-fulfilling prophecies. If everyone tightens up spending because they expect a recession, that essentially guarantees there will be one.

The whole economy is powered by belief. No bank would be able to handle a bank run.

Yes, but the government can. The 2008 crisis didn't happen in deposit banking, but it was effectively a "bank run" in the same sense you're talking about -- all the assets banks could normally use to draw on to meet obligations froze up, and they ran out of money.

And the government stepped in, becoming a lender of last resort. And it worked (not well, maybe, but it worked).

Saying "the economy is powered by belief" isn't quite right. Finance is powered by belief and trust. But at the end of the day the "economy" is all the people out there able to work, and they aren't susceptible to bank runs.

Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade

#88

Post by throw0101a » Fri, Apr 05, 2019, 5:04 PM UTC

pmalynin wrote: post #70

mikeash wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The FDIC couldn’t handle a run on every bank. If people thought there would be a massive run, they’d rush to withdraw their money despite the FDIC. So it’s really both: belief in the FDIC’s ability to handle small runs gives people the belief that there won’t be big ones.

The govt could just print the money out. Sure inflation, but when your economy is crashing inflation will encourage spending

I don't think there would be inflation.

Inflation begins (IMHO) when there's a lot of money in circulation: too much cash chasing too few resources, bidding up prices.

In a bank run, people are taking home bills because they want them to be "safe" in case the bank goes under (never mind FDIC, which most people probably do not understand).

Money sitting under the proverbial or literal mattress is not in circulation, and not going to cause the bidding-up of prices.

Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade

#89

Post by moorhosj » Fri, Apr 05, 2019, 5:05 PM UTC

isoskeles wrote: post #80

moorhosj wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The concept that the government is a bully makes me laugh (and also sad). What a warped worldview.

It could be an apple vendor who lowers their price, same difference here. The label doesn't matter. But here in the US, they definitely act like a bully eager to punish people for earning money because half the country views wealth as a sin. They do it to the extent of coming up with absurd new tax schemes. > Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Oregon, announced on Tuesday that he is working on a mark-to-market system that would tax u…

==half the country views wealth as a sin.==

But I thought they were all atheists, which is it?

==absurd new tax schemes.==

As opposed to the old scheme of cutting taxes for the richest among us and telling the rest it will trickle down to them? How many times of that not working before we are allowed to try something new?

Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade

#90

Post by geggam » Fri, Apr 05, 2019, 5:05 PM UTC

manfredo wrote: post #83

geggam wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting isnt it ? The banks are secured by the govt which happens to be the biggest debtor to the banks. Problem being the govt is really the people and when it comes down to it the people are on the hook for their own debts regardless of how it gets paid. AND we bail out the corporations who spend too much.

Not really. The government has the authority to print money. They can ensure banks never run out of cash. But it may cause inflation if they overdo it. I suppose inflation is paying for it, but I get the feelings that the semantics around whether inflation is "paying" for things have changed recently (or maybe I've been hearing too many ardent MMT evangelists).

The ability to print money was outsourced to the Federal Reserve, while regulated by the govt it is not the govt.

When we "borrow" money from the Fed it is at interest. We have created a debt based system where everything is a borrow.

Fiat currencies are based on the value of the peoples ability to create value. When the people owe the banks more value than they can generate they are bankrupt. When the people and the govt ( the people ) owe money to the banks to the point they cannot generate enough value to cover the debts what will happen ?

I think we will see soon :)