Earlier quoted context omitted.
The question is what is a sustainable rate.
The one where interest rates aren't being artificially lowered.
"artificially" - is that a thing? Isn't it just "lowered"? What is artificial about it?
The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade
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Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade
#52And yet: "Applications for US Unemployment Aid Fall to 49-Year Low"[0] "Unemployment Rate Reached a Record Low in 19 States Last Year"[1] [0] https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2019-04-04/app... [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-23/unemploym...
Meanwhile, the laborforce participation of 63% remains lower than 2014. I remember a time, when there was a different president, that this number was constantly referenced as evidence of a poor recovery. If the labor market is so robust why aren't people joining the workforce?
Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade
#53Earlier quoted context omitted.
There are so many contradicting predictions all the time. You could for example say that it's because everyone thinks that the robots that are to steal everyone's job are around the corner, so everyone is preparing for it.
The stock market finds the 'correct' price for stocks, by aggregating conflicting beliefs and predictions of traders. When the beliefs are overwhelmingly pessimistic, stock prices drop. Why should companies behave any differently with respect to layoffs?
> The stock market finds the 'correct' price for stocks, by aggregating conflicting beliefs and predictions of traders.
10-20 years ago, maybe. It's now driven largely by semi-autonomous algorithms monitoring swings/trends. I'd argue that it finds a 'simulated' price rather than a 'correct' price. The stock market is much less susceptible to emotional speculation than it used to be, for better or for worse.
A quick google yields multiple articles claiming various percentages for algorithmic vs meatspace trading. Investopedia claims that as early as 2010, upwards of 60 percent of all trading was done by algorithm. That number has risen since as computation has become cheaper. Source: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/algorithmictrading.asp
Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade
#54Earlier quoted context omitted.
The unemployment rate is the lowest it has been in 50 years. That stat isn't perfect but it is still that the number of people with jobs is about as high as it has ever been.
Totally wrong! The employment population ratio age 25-54, just climbed out of a sewer where it has wallowed BELOW the lowest gross employment ratio since the recession bottom in 1992! Unemployment has been HORRIBLE since Bush left office! https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060 You read too many Clinton-era Arkansas lies. Clinton's racist "discouraged workers" unemployment stats - that only racists quote - say…
It's interesting how there's so much "information" about how well the employment rate was over the last 10 years, but everyone knows people who became/are unemployed (or part time only employed). Somehow every just assumes it's a localized situation to them, despite the ubiquity across observers. Part of it is the misinformation, but is that the only factor in the strength in the mischaracterized narrative? This still puzzles me.
Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade
#55> The impact: It's the highest number of job cuts in a quarter since 2015. Highest since 2015 is less surprising than “ highest in a decade”
Headline:> The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade
Article:> The U.S. saw its highest level of layoffs in a first quarter since 2009
This seems like a reasonable headline for the article.
Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade
#56Earlier quoted context omitted.
The whole economy is powered by belief. No bank would be able to handle a bank run.
Because people believe in the FDIC, not that there won't ever be a bank run.
Interesting isnt it ?
The banks are secured by the govt which happens to be the biggest debtor to the banks.
Problem being the govt is really the people and when it comes down to it the people are on the hook for their own debts regardless of how it gets paid.
AND we bail out the corporations who spend too much.
Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade
#57> The impact: It's the highest number of job cuts in a quarter since 2015. Highest since 2015 is less surprising than “ highest in a decade”
This needs to be higher.
Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade
#58And yet: "Applications for US Unemployment Aid Fall to 49-Year Low"[0] "Unemployment Rate Reached a Record Low in 19 States Last Year"[1] [0] https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2019-04-04/app... [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-23/unemploym...
Layoffs plus hiring. Will people realize at some point that volatility is a sign of health?
"It's a sign of health," he says from the comfort of his yacht, taking a slow sip of champagne between big spoonfuls of Beluga caviar all while watching the city burn. "Just look at all those construction and health-care jobs being created."
Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade
#59"The report said worry about an economic slowdown was the main driver of companies' layoff intentions." I sometimes wonder if these sorts of economic projections end up being self-fulfilling prophecies. If everyone tightens up spending because they expect a recession, that essentially guarantees there will be one.
The actual reason is debt payments not being met due to erroneous growth assumptions, which then cascade down the system. There are always people calling a peak or bottom, but at the end of the day, if your revenue projections aren't met, then you're going to have to cut costs. Whenever there is money sloshing around looking for return, the bets get riskier and riskier (i.e. assumptions about revenues get fantastical), and at some point that's not going to reflect reality. Perhaps it's due to job losses due to automation, or a weather event, or a war, etc.
Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade
#60Meanwhile, over here: https://www.apnews.com/eac21eae21bb474c82bdd09069619cb7
> Hiring rebounds as US employers add a solid 196,000 jobs