Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#181

Post by dmix » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 5:09 PM UTC

dragontamer wrote: post #157

wyldfire wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

shrug , someone made a poor choice when assigned the task of triaging the product returns. Should've used a database or some other sort of private index, this publicity looks bad. > Tsla was always storing cars at 761 but not this many Production is up, ergo returns are up. The count of units returned is useless without normalizing it against the units produced. Of course, even with that it's likely a bad score for T…

> Production is up, ergo returns are up. Production is down actually from Q4 2018. http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla... > Production in Q4 grew to 86,555 vehicles http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla... > In the first quarter, we produced approximately 77,100 total vehicles

Production is up year over year, no?

We don't know what timeframe the tweet author is talking about. Did he mean there weren't many Tesla's there last quarter or a long time ago?

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#182

Post by mikeash » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 5:10 PM UTC

gordon_freeman wrote: post #170

If I want to invest in Tesla or any other company (another ex: Boeing), I'd ask myself this q: Is this something temporary problem that smart people would easily able to overcome? Or is this something fundamental or structural issue that's gonna be there long-term. I don't see this delivery issue for Tesla dragging on beyond this quarter. Lately, I have seen specifically with Tesla that short-term concerns have been…

The flip side to this is that they always seem to have some sort of short-term problem going on. One quarter it’s trouble ramping up production, then it’s quality issues, pissing off regulators, inadequate transportation, what have you.

You can see this as “they are good at overcoming problems” or as “there’s always something going wrong.” I tend to see it more as the former but seeing it as the latter may be a sensible explanation for the stock movements.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#183

Post by SEJeff » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 5:10 PM UTC

blhack wrote: post #171

bksenior wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You think thats bad. Tesla is about to have to head to head with all the majors who are now starting to finally harvest about a decade of their own research in the space (prompted by Teslas early success). Musks ambitions and outbursts strike me as a man who suffers from the top killer of successful entrepreneurs, The skill/talent portability fallacy. It's this idea because you did something similar well, that your a…

>It's this idea because you did something similar well, that your ability should port to "things like it." Except that Elon Musk has: Completely disrupted online payments Completely disrupted space travel Completely disrupted automobiles . It wouldn't matter if SpaceX and Tesla disappeared at this moment. The history books would still be written about how Tesla and SpaceX were the things that instigated the change.

He also did zip2 (to fund x.com which he sold and became paypal), which was essentially one of the first online phone books / business directories.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#184

Post by stcredzero » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 5:10 PM UTC

volkl48 wrote: post #162

fetus8 wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're underestimating how much people are willing to spend on an EV, especially a Tesla. I work in Boulder, and Teslas are literally every where. When the Model 3 deliveries started happening, our parking lot at work was invaded with the navy blue models. EVs have become quite commonplace all over the Front Range of CO, even in the less rich places. Teslas, Bolts, Volts, etrons, and Electric Fords are really…

Yeah, but these are all a certain cultural bubble where they are vastly over-represented. EV's were 2.1% of new-car sales last year in the US. That's nearly doubling the 1.2% share from last year, and that is great growth. But that still means 98% of new cars last year weren't. And with the average car on the road being ~12 years old, EV's are still practically a rounding error in the actual vehicle fleet.

Yeah, but these are all a certain cultural bubble where they are vastly over-represented.

I suspect quite a few things are vastly over-represented in those cultural bubbles. I'd love to see a Tesla sales map!

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#185

Post by SEJeff » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 5:11 PM UTC

notfromhere wrote: post #152

bksenior wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You think thats bad. Tesla is about to have to head to head with all the majors who are now starting to finally harvest about a decade of their own research in the space (prompted by Teslas early success). Musks ambitions and outbursts strike me as a man who suffers from the top killer of successful entrepreneurs, The skill/talent portability fallacy. It's this idea because you did something similar well, that your a…

It's probably going to turn out that the guys who've been building cars for a century can figure out battery technology faster than the battery guys figuring out how to scale auto manufacturing

One word... patents

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#186

Post by x2f10 » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 5:12 PM UTC

gordon_freeman wrote: post #170

If I want to invest in Tesla or any other company (another ex: Boeing), I'd ask myself this q: Is this something temporary problem that smart people would easily able to overcome? Or is this something fundamental or structural issue that's gonna be there long-term. I don't see this delivery issue for Tesla dragging on beyond this quarter. Lately, I have seen specifically with Tesla that short-term concerns have been…

I'm long on $TSLA and agree with the opinion. However, I think critics have the opinion that $TSLA is over-inflated and the corrective action is the marketing coming to terms with the logistical / systematic challenges ahead.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#187

Post by stcredzero » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 5:12 PM UTC

Klathmon wrote: post #111

mikeash wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A quick search on cars.com reveals 1,700 new cars within 50 miles of my zip code for under $15,000. I agree that a decent EV for that price is just not practical yet, but cheap ICE cars have no trouble hitting it.

That's fair I guess, I did a cursory search and saw things from Toyota and Nissan in the $16-18k range, and I didn't really search more. But I was also expecting to compare MSRP, but I now realize that it's not really a good comparison since Teslas are bought less like cars (with haggling and discounts) and more like a new phone (you pay the price they set). Still, I'm floored that ICE cars are that cheap!

Still, I'm floored that ICE cars are that cheap!

If you wait, you'll probably see a special for Nissan Versas just over 10k.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#188

Post by SEJeff » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 5:16 PM UTC

ineedasername wrote: post #146

yumraj wrote: post #101

I think it's more or less generally agreed that Tesla has the best in class battery, charger and perhaps drive train, including motors, technology. However, they have a single car plant and struggle with production and quality, after sales support and so on. I wonder, as a thought experiment, if Tesla would be more successful if they become the OEM, providing their technology to the various car manufacturers. Somethi…

I don't think so. They may have a lead on battery tech etc., but I wouldn't say it's a commanding lead. Given a few other EV options that come close in range, other manufacturers seem likely to keep plugging away on their own tech rather than rely on someone else with marginal & decreasing advantages. On drive train, motors, etc., established manufacturers have decades more comparable experience they can bring to bea…

They have an exclusive tech partnership with John B Goodenough (yes that is his real name), who is literally one of the inventors of lithium ion batteries. He's made a few breakthroughs[1] recently wrt max duty cycles, and only Tesla is getting that technology. It means their batteries will last longer than anyone else. It is one of the reasons the Tesla batteries have less nickel and cobalt, which is completely unrivalled and makes the tesla batteries cheaper to manufacturer. There are also patents around several of the chemistry specific things that ensures Tesla will in fact stand alone for some time in these areas. When it comes to battery tech, Tesla handily stands on their own.

[1] https://www.inc.com/wanda-thibodeaux/the-inventor-of-lithium...

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#189

Post by SEJeff » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 5:20 PM UTC

jfoster wrote: post #163

jdhn wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While scaling up is hard, it's not like the expertise to scale up doesn't exist. The auto industry is pretty established, and I'm sure that there are companies and/or consultants that could help Tesla out.

Had any other car company ever scaled up as rapidly as Tesla is?

No. The last "new" American car manufacturer was GM, which was founded September 16, 1908 in Flint, MI.

"ha ha ha Tesla is so bad at logistics, they suck so much! Look how much better everyone else is!"

Imagine how much better I'd be at literally anything if you gave me a > 100 year head start!

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#190

Post by robohoe » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 5:21 PM UTC

mikeash wrote: post #96

saiya-jin wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> most people on HN are the actual population that is buying teslas You overestimate how many people here are willing to shell out those amounts of money for vehicle, and how practical it actually is. Yes, it is a future and whatnot and a lot of cool tech. But for say 20k euro I can have 5 year old BMW 3-er wagon. Yes, not new car, but I get 95% of the car for 1/3-1/4 of the cost. Much better fun to drive (I care muc…

In sorta-rich places like Washington, DC, they’re all over the place.

They're all over Chicagoland too.