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Life on the wrong side of China’s social credit system

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Re: Life on the wrong side of China’s social credit system

#231
post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 5% of Americans take public transit to get to work. rephrasing: 95% of Americans take private transit to get to work. I would call that an almost certainty that you need a car.

If there was a 5% the market would crash 50% tomorrow. Would you call that an almost certainty that it wouldn't happen? You wouldn't hedge your risk? If there was a 5% that you would die tomorrow, you wouldn't feel concerned? 5% is huge.

5% is "huge" when considering probability of a "catastrophic" event compounded over time, because what you're really thinking of is "expected value over a year" or something like that. This 5 percent, by contrast, is a fraction of a population.

Re: Life on the wrong side of China’s social credit system

#232
post #150
post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

5% of Americans take public transit to get to work. I wouldn't call that an almost certainty that you need a car. An almost certainty would be maybe under <.001%

How many of that 5% live in places where public transit is even a meaningful option for them to get to work? How much of the country is that, again? What's that ratio in the places where it isn't?

I'm wealthy enough to live in a place where commuting by public transit is practical. I should move to a car-only distance to save money, but end up spending it on the luxury of convenience.

Re: Life on the wrong side of China’s social credit system

#233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there a reason why student debt and not other kinds of debt (e.g. credit card)? Also, how does the DMV know what someone’s debt history is?

Yes, because the government took over most student loans a few years ago[1], and they make the rules (and want you to pay). [1] https://www.sfgate.com/business/networth/article/Feds-take-o...

The federal government took over student loan financing, not state governments. The federal government doesn't run state DMVs, and they don't make rules about suspending state licenses. And the OP is mistaken about 21 states suspending driver's licenses.

Also the Federal government used to guarantee the debt. Now they finance it directly. They were always the ones on the hook.

Re: Life on the wrong side of China’s social credit system

#234
post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems like there is a misunderstanding about the US credit system. Paying interest has 0 impact on your credit score. Plenty of ways to get a credit card without credit history (secured credit cards are typically easiest) and as long as you pay it off before the statement due date (typically 28-60 days after the charge) then you will not be charged any interest while building credit. Here's a quick overview of how a…

> Plenty of ways to get a credit card without credit history (secured credit cards are typically easiest) and as long as you pay it off before the statement due date How it works? What the reason for a bank to give credit without interest? I just do not believe it. System must have a way to get interest. If system says it charges no interest, it means that interest payments are hidden. Either behind transactions fees…

If system says it charges no interest, it means that interest payments are hidden. Either behind transactions fees, or by fixed costs covering maintanance of credit card, or by some other ways.

In a sense you are right -- there is a hidden fee, and it's related to the value that credit cards create for merchants. There are other ways to make money on payments, besides interest. The card company charges the merchant a fee -- perhaps 3.5% -- to process the transaction.

If a customers pays 8.00 USD for a toothbrush with cash, the merchant receives 8.00 USD in cash. If the customer pays with a credit card, the merchant receives 7.72 USD directly in their bank account. They lose 0.28 USD on 8.00 USD. Why do they take this deal?

* Reduced risk of theft and loss. Cash is easy to steal -- it can be stolen by employees, by dedicated robbers, and by passers by.

* Increased likelihood of making a sale. People don't want to carry too much cash, so sometimes they run out; and instead of making an impulse purchase, they just don't make the purchase. Credit makes it much easier for them to make that purchase.

Re: Life on the wrong side of China’s social credit system

#235
post #162

Anytime a criticism of China's social credit score is brought up, there's always a "yeah but US credit score", yet I still don't understand how the two are even in the same ballpark. The social credit score in China is far more invasive and penalizes you for associating yourself with individuals who have low scores. To compare the two is disingenuous and reaks of whataboutism

There are 13million in China social credit system. That's around 1% of the population. On the other hand, the US has the highest rate of incarceration in the world. Which would you prefer? Be thrown in jail; or be limited some freedoms/privileges? I'll take limited freedom. Maybe, then, I'll have a simple chance to prove my case. From Wikipedia, 21% of prisoners in the US are unsentenced. That's roughly 400,000 perso…

>I'll take limited freedom. Maybe, then, I'll have a simple chance to prove my case.

Tell that to the between 1 and 3 million people who are in Chinese concentration camps because of their religion.

>From Wikipedia, 21% of prisoners in the US are unsentenced.

I'm not sure about the number you came up with, but those are people are awaiting trial, and there are constitutional limitations on how long they can be held. There are no such safeguards in China.

Re: Life on the wrong side of China’s social credit system

#236
post #162

Anytime a criticism of China's social credit score is brought up, there's always a "yeah but US credit score", yet I still don't understand how the two are even in the same ballpark. The social credit score in China is far more invasive and penalizes you for associating yourself with individuals who have low scores. To compare the two is disingenuous and reaks of whataboutism

There are 13million in China social credit system. That's around 1% of the population. On the other hand, the US has the highest rate of incarceration in the world. Which would you prefer? Be thrown in jail; or be limited some freedoms/privileges? I'll take limited freedom. Maybe, then, I'll have a simple chance to prove my case. From Wikipedia, 21% of prisoners in the US are unsentenced. That's roughly 400,000 perso…

I'd prefer neither, and as a US citizen reserve the right to criticize the totalitarian practices of both my and foreign governments.

Criticizing evil does not implicitly mean you endorse your own localized evil. The rampant systemic and structural racism and classism built into American society is heinous, but all I can realistically do about it from my vantage point of poor 20 something living in rural PA is vote and advocate for politicians I put my trust in to right the wrongs.

Re: Life on the wrong side of China’s social credit system

#237
post #162

Anytime a criticism of China's social credit score is brought up, there's always a "yeah but US credit score", yet I still don't understand how the two are even in the same ballpark. The social credit score in China is far more invasive and penalizes you for associating yourself with individuals who have low scores. To compare the two is disingenuous and reaks of whataboutism

There are 13million in China social credit system. That's around 1% of the population. On the other hand, the US has the highest rate of incarceration in the world. Which would you prefer? Be thrown in jail; or be limited some freedoms/privileges? I'll take limited freedom. Maybe, then, I'll have a simple chance to prove my case. From Wikipedia, 21% of prisoners in the US are unsentenced. That's roughly 400,000 perso…

You really need to look up 'false equivalence' and ponder it for a while.

Re: Life on the wrong side of China’s social credit system

#238

This is not the social credit system(edit based on OP comment: the dystopic social credit system that people are afraid of). This is just the list of discredited people("Shi Xin Zhe" list) published by China's court system. The whole list is published on http://zxgk.court.gov.cn/ You don't end up on the list for simply owing money (and it has nothing to do with social mis/conduct), you end up on the list for being su…

Inkstone editor and OP here. This IS China's social credit system. Lists of discredited people, often published by Chinese courts, are the primary mechanism by which punishment is meted out.

They are only the same in the broad sense of a social credit system, but the two credits are not the same.

The social credit score system is an actual scoring system based on your overall social activities, including both financial and non-financial (e.g. the rightfully dreaded political/religious activity). No nobody knows exactly how it works and no one I know in China actually knows their score or anything even qualitative about their score.

The discredited list is just a yes or no list based on court judgement for your financial debt, nothing more and nothing less. It is a public list and there is a clear way to end up on it.

Re: Life on the wrong side of China’s social credit system

#239
post #217

This is not the social credit system(edit based on OP comment: the dystopic social credit system that people are afraid of). This is just the list of discredited people("Shi Xin Zhe" list) published by China's court system. The whole list is published on http://zxgk.court.gov.cn/ You don't end up on the list for simply owing money (and it has nothing to do with social mis/conduct), you end up on the list for being su…

> you end up on the list for being sued over the money you owe You mean like the summary judgments that can be leveled against debtors in the US by debt collection agencies... And which...ding your credit score. Which makes it harder to get credit...secure a loan...(sometimes) get housing...(sometimes) get a job Versus...institutional segregation and denial of services by the government. Definitely not even in the sa…

No, I mean like how in the US the creditor can get the court to let them take your property (except certain exempt things like your primary residence) and garnish your wages.

Re: Life on the wrong side of China’s social credit system

#240

This is not the social credit system(edit based on OP comment: the dystopic social credit system that people are afraid of). This is just the list of discredited people("Shi Xin Zhe" list) published by China's court system. The whole list is published on http://zxgk.court.gov.cn/ You don't end up on the list for simply owing money (and it has nothing to do with social mis/conduct), you end up on the list for being su…

This comes across as far, far more self-destructive than just a social credit scoring system, it really comes across as children playing with fire they don't understand.

All Fractional reserve lending systems replace capital with debt in the form of checks; A Loan made from a cash deposit comes back to the bank as collaterol on that debt, and as a new deposit which can create a new debt. The bank expects to be solvent because it can sell the loan to another bank to raise cash to cover the deposit, but in reality, what ends up happening is the ratio of cash to checks grows rapidly driving inflation. Inflation drives interest rates upward since nobody loans at less the rate of inflation. Interest rates, and the banks propensity not to spend more than they take in from interest, locks society into a game of musical chairs for repayment.

This is a politically unstable situation for bankers because nobody likes the idea of forcing honest people into bankruptcy and stealing their property, except perhaps a few very greedy and shortsighted bankers and politicians at the top of the heirarchy. This produces all sorts of laws and regulations, aka "compromises" which allow the ratio to continue to grow, and at some point the velocity of capital is insufficient to service the interest on existing debts at which point we begin forcing risk into places within the economic system it does not belong. We stopped publishing M.3 when it was at around 56 trillion, that is a ratio of around 56:1. M2 to M0 and M1 to M0 are two other ratio's to watch.

Ergo, we have not deflated the US housing market since 2007, and continue to drive prices to unaffordable levels. Assuming one has the cash to purchase a house, one must now contend with the risk of an impared title and a bankrupt title insurance company. Jobs can't pay living wages because businesses are saddled with business debts, and Governments don't enforce their laws because they too are bankrupt. The stock market is over-inflated from hedge funds and HFT games. List goes on.

Eventually you end up reducing the number of checks in the system forcefully through bankruptcy, such as through an economic crash, or you destroy price signalling mechanisms within the economy which leads to an economic collapse. A good measure of a collapse is fertility rates, birth rates and average life expectancy. When the USSR Fell, their fertility rate was down to 1.2 births per women; the US currently sits at 1.72. 2.1 births per women is replacement. Birth rates are falling because women are having kids later in life, and live expectancy is dropping due to an increased suicide rate. These rates tend to drop suddenly once society becomes too far taxed by the way, as the USSR's statistics shows.

Our discussion about $15 an hour minimum wages is very much so a discussion about forcing rich people into bankruptcy so the average working Joe can have basics in life and society can be stable. We can make correlations to history, but at the end of the day, there's a lack of concrete data to proove out the above pattern of behaivour and the people running the economic system, including doctorretes in economics, don't fully understand these mechanisms.

What China has managed to do here is create a class of permanent underdogs for whom the game is rigged and force them to literally compete against the rich for life and liberty. Literally the rich are eating people alive. This is an unstable, shortsighted arrangement; the chinese do not have a good grasp of how technology impacts society and are not interested in learning about how its has impacted other countries. They risk creating a powderkeg of permanent underdogs and a business culture of not making investments due to the risk or not engaging with the government due to the regulations. All of that will challenge their ability to remain stable and is likely to result in an eventual collapse.

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