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A Beginner’s Guide to MMT

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Re: A Beginner’s Guide to MMT

#101
post #66

A credentialed economist should put a stake through the heart of the heart of MMT. Two simple critiques: 1) Relative to a financial statement (i.e. budget), it is difficult to predict and measure inflation. This difficulty lowers the likelihood of government fiscal responsibility and increases the likelihood of devestating inflation. 2) A basic second-order effect: What happens when people realize transfer medium is…

"A credentialed economist should put a stake through the heart of the heart of MMT" -- yet somehow all the critiques made by credentialed economists have been based on misunderstanding MMT. "The financial statement of the economy has to balance." The heart of MMT is that the imbalance between money coming in to a powerful central government and money going out is the primary contributor to growth (or contraction) of…

It's tax policy that is designed to be non-transparent. When the government collects $20 dollars from my income I know exactly what kind of value is being collected. When the government prints $20 it's not transparent what kind of value is being redirected to the government.

Re: A Beginner’s Guide to MMT

#102
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This does not make sense as a rebuttal. The MMT'ers and the monetarists agree that runaway inflation is very bad. Essentially what you're doing here is confirming the misperception that MMT is just left-wing back-rationalized voodoo economics, which it is not.

^^ This is a straw man. I also agree that runaway inflation is bad. Almost everybody does. What I wrote above cannot, under any serious interpretation, be considered as a defense of runaway inflation.

Help me understand where I went wrong reading this. I read, paraphrased: "The problem with MMT is that if everyone believes in it, they'll do things that cause inflation to rise", and "This is a problem primarily for the investing class".

Re: A Beginner’s Guide to MMT

#103
post #90

Assume someone with a biology PhD explained to you that the sky was actually purple because of a hidden extra cone your eye possesses that was perceiving light that your brain was canceling out. This somehow sounds plausible, and it's impossible for non biologist me to disprove but at the end of the day I can look up at the sky and say"no, I'm confident it's blue". This is MMT. MMT says: "government debt isn't really…

The point is that the government doesn't need to borrow any money in the first place.

The government needs money only to buy the goods and services of the private sector in the service of the public interest. There is no other utility for money in the modern state.

The government no longer needs to keep stocks of gold, the government can create "digital gold" as needed.

Recall why the government needs to print money: because money is an abstraction, a fungible token that represents a constant fraction of the total real wealth in the the entire economic system. If we keep producing more goods and services, but don't produce more money, we enter deflation. To avoid deflation, the government needs only to ensure that the amount of money in circulation increases in line with any increase in economic output. As long as this is managed proficiently, the economic system will be stable.

The government increases the amount of money in circulation by purchasing goods and services from the public. To this end, the government can offer citizens money in exchange for labour that serves the public interest and fulfill both its economic and pro-social obligation.

What's the point of the government creating these abstract value tokens, giving them to us, and then demanding them back? And furthermore, why does the government need to borrow arbitrary amounts of similar tokens from other governments?

It doesn't. Our current system is a relic from the days of governments using a limited, fungible, physical resource (gold) which didn't linearly scale with economic growth.

The government no longer needs to borrow tokens, it needs only to create more of them, and should only occasionally need to remove tokens from circulation (taxation) as a way to account compel pro-social behaviour -- e.g. carbon emission taxes.

Re: A Beginner’s Guide to MMT

#104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's also such a disingenuous name – "modern" monetary theory. To the layman, it automatically reads like a new and improved understanding of Economics, when in reality it's just another theory, and not even a very mainstream one at that.

It started as a joke. It's called "modern" because it only applies to the past 4000 years. https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2018/10/randy-wray-modern-mo...

That might very well be an interesting bit of trivia but it doesn't make it less disingenuous

Re: A Beginner’s Guide to MMT

#105
post #5

It’s immediately obvious that increasing the money supply and spending the money will result in inflation. MMT says that the only constraint on spending is inflation, but also turns around and says that you can always print more money. That’s a contradiction. Printing more money does not change the real wealth in the economy. You can’t create additional purchasing power with an increase in the money supply because pr…

Inflation is MV = PQ... you are commenting only on the M which is money supply. You have to factor in the other variables, notably V or the rate of spending. If V remains low, then M can increase without significant inflation.

V would have to decrease. If V and Q remain constant, then an increase in M results in a linear increase in P.

Re: A Beginner’s Guide to MMT

#106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It’s immediately obvious that increasing the money supply and spending the money will result in inflation. I'm not criticizing your logic, but I feel like my entire adult life (I'm 42) I've been bombarded with tales of EVERY proposal will "obviously result in inflation". During this time gold has also been upheld as the only safe investment, doom is always around the corner, Europe has been on the brink of financia…

It will result in inflation, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. At its heart inflation is just a wealth transfer from creditor to debtor (god forbid, right? creditors are king ). The real issues are that: * Inflation is treated as a bogeyman in the investor managed media rather than an integral and necessary part of a monetary system (you want real pain? try DEflation). * Complete misrepresentation of the risks…

Not exactly. Wealthy people will just move their assets into something other than dollars. Low and middle income people (which probably have more of their assets in dollars) will have their savings constantly devalued. Interest rates in loans will skyrocket in order to offset inflation.

Re: A Beginner’s Guide to MMT

#107
A good place to start is with a simple description that you can carry in your pocket: MMT proposes that a country with its own currency, such as the U.S., doesn’t have to worry about accumulating too much debt because it can always print more money to pay interest. So the only constraint on spending is inflation, which can break out if the public and private sectors spend too much at the same time. As long as there are enough workers and equipment to meet growing demand without igniting inflation, the government can spend what it needs to maintain employment and achieve goals such as halting climate change.

Today's inflation manifests itself, not in consumer price increases, but in asset bubbles. Asset bubbles always pop, usually uncontrollably.

The last major asset bubble nearly took out the US economy with it. The next one may finish the job.

Debt matters because the only politically palatable cure for the aftermath of a debt-fueled bubble is more debt. And more bubbles.

Re: A Beginner’s Guide to MMT

#108
post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We've already started MMT since 2008. The scary thing: it's been working well.

MMT without job guarantee is not quite MMT.

As far as I understand, MMT wants to optimize for full employment. Job guarantee is a possible implementation. We're at 4% unemployment rate. You can say we have full employment per the current standard.

Re: A Beginner’s Guide to MMT

#109

A credentialed economist should put a stake through the heart of the heart of MMT. Two simple critiques: 1) Relative to a financial statement (i.e. budget), it is difficult to predict and measure inflation. This difficulty lowers the likelihood of government fiscal responsibility and increases the likelihood of devestating inflation. 2) A basic second-order effect: What happens when people realize transfer medium is…

> A credentialed economist should put a stake through the heart of the heart of MMT.

MMT is, AFAICT, pretty soldily grounded recitations of facts about fiat money that are widely recognized.

It's been embraced by advocates of monetizing fiscal affairs because, well, it says that there is virtually unlimited short-term capacity to do that in a fiat-money system. But it's exactly that temptation in a fiat money system that motivated the strong separation we currently have between fiscal and monetary policy, which includes the whole structure of government financing operation g as if it were more like a normal participant in the economy.

OTOH, the entity charged with fiscal policy in the US has either been actively hostile to real needs or asleep at the switch for most of the last couple decades, and monetary policy alone, as currently structured, directs money initially into what is often the wrong place, though fiscal policy can help move it to the right place. The problem with the MMT driven “solution” is it involves concentrating both fiscal and monetary policy in the hands of Congress, and if Congress wasn't being completely worthless we wouldn't have the problem people are turning to MMT to fix.

If Congress were doing good work with fiscal policy but the Fed was screwing it up with poorly chosen or simply negligent monetary policy, then there would be a problem that the way MMT is being invoked would present a solution to.

Re: A Beginner’s Guide to MMT

#110
post #58

I think MMT is an interesting school of thought because the economy has been reacting in a way contrary to what the data suggests. We're in the tenth year of an economic expansion and wages are only just starting to increase -- and at a modest pace at that. The amount of inequality in our economy is not accurately represented in GDP or unemployment. You would think inflation would perk up this long into an expansion…

> You would think inflation would perk up this long into an expansion but since most of the gains have gone to the wealthy (who don't spend as much as their income as normal folk) the economy is not as dynamic as we thought it would be This is exactly what happens when new money in injected at exclusive points. The upper class accumulates ever more financial power, while the lower class is kept fighting over the scra…

Isn't Canada experience in the 90s an example of exactly that. Gov deficits ran out of control and the current collapse and finally the government had to cut services (raided the unemployment fund).
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