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A Beginner’s Guide to MMT

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71–80 of 199 posts

Re: A Beginner’s Guide to MMT

#71

A credentialed economist should put a stake through the heart of the heart of MMT. Two simple critiques: 1) Relative to a financial statement (i.e. budget), it is difficult to predict and measure inflation. This difficulty lowers the likelihood of government fiscal responsibility and increases the likelihood of devestating inflation. 2) A basic second-order effect: What happens when people realize transfer medium is…

> What happens when people realize transfer medium is being debased? They'll obviously try not to store value in that transfer medium.

Arguably, to some proponents of MMT/in some versions of MMT, this is a feature and not a bug. Economically speaking, stored value at rest isn't "interesting", it's a potential indicator of waste or inefficiency of resource utilization in current flows. I've heard the argument that the real "bug" here is the human psychological need to "hoard" stationary value/"keep score", which admittedly is a very hard problem to solve, but having hard problems to solve isn't necessarily a disproof of a hypothesis such as MMT.

Re: A Beginner’s Guide to MMT

#72
post #5

It’s immediately obvious that increasing the money supply and spending the money will result in inflation. MMT says that the only constraint on spending is inflation, but also turns around and says that you can always print more money. That’s a contradiction. Printing more money does not change the real wealth in the economy. You can’t create additional purchasing power with an increase in the money supply because pr…

> It’s immediately obvious that increasing the money supply and spending the money will result in inflation. I'm not criticizing your logic, but I feel like my entire adult life (I'm 42) I've been bombarded with tales of EVERY proposal will "obviously result in inflation". During this time gold has also been upheld as the only safe investment, doom is always around the corner, Europe has been on the brink of financia…

It will result in inflation, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. At its heart inflation is just a wealth transfer from creditor to debtor (god forbid, right? creditors are king).

The real issues are that:

* Inflation is treated as a bogeyman in the investor managed media rather than an integral and necessary part of a monetary system (you want real pain? try DEflation).

* Complete misrepresentation of the risks of hyper inflation and a total misrepresentation of why it happens (e.g. idiotically pretending that all zimbabwe/weimar/venezuela did was spend just a little bit too much on social programs).

I kind of wish inflation were kept in band between 7 and 12% via fiscal spending and taxation (as MMT says is possible). That would keep it below the level at which it would impact growth and above the level where wealth slowly gets hoarded by the 1%.

Re: A Beginner’s Guide to MMT

#73

A credentialed economist should put a stake through the heart of the heart of MMT. Two simple critiques: 1) Relative to a financial statement (i.e. budget), it is difficult to predict and measure inflation. This difficulty lowers the likelihood of government fiscal responsibility and increases the likelihood of devestating inflation. 2) A basic second-order effect: What happens when people realize transfer medium is…

Here are some: http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/modern-monetary-theory

The thing is, economists disagree with each other all the time, including the most erudite ones. Expert opinion is nearly always conflicted.

Re: A Beginner’s Guide to MMT

#74
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we also know why it's a bad idea Do tell.

Countries can and have defaulted on debts issued in their own currencies. If you printed your way out of debt that would be a default in all but name. You would cause a collapse of credit and a collapse in confidence in the currency itself.

> Countries can and have defaulted on debts issued in their own currencies.

Really? How?

> If you printed your way out of debt that would be a default in all but name.

Oh, right, actually they don't. So in fact it is actually impossible to default on debt in your own currency and you're admitting as much.

> You would cause a collapse of credit and a collapse in confidence in the currency itself.

Right. And a reduction of value of a currency is also called inflation. Which is pretty well accounted for within the discussion.

Re: A Beginner’s Guide to MMT

#75

A fear of mine is that MMT gains enough traction to be implemented, but only partially. Similar to what has happened with the ACA. For argument's sake, let's just assume MMT is a sound theory. Regardless, if it's only half-implemented -- without all components for regulating taxes, inflation, and spending -- it could be an absolute disaster. Additionally, there are concerns about having the government itself involved…

For what it's worth, the ACA was pretty successful before it was slowly gutted by the current administration. Around 12M people signed up at its peak. Generally, incremental changes are better than a "perfect" solution that comes in a lot later.

Re: A Beginner’s Guide to MMT

#76
post #5

It’s immediately obvious that increasing the money supply and spending the money will result in inflation. MMT says that the only constraint on spending is inflation, but also turns around and says that you can always print more money. That’s a contradiction. Printing more money does not change the real wealth in the economy. You can’t create additional purchasing power with an increase in the money supply because pr…

> It’s immediately obvious that increasing the money supply and spending the money will result in inflation. I'm not criticizing your logic, but I feel like my entire adult life (I'm 42) I've been bombarded with tales of EVERY proposal will "obviously result in inflation". During this time gold has also been upheld as the only safe investment, doom is always around the corner, Europe has been on the brink of financia…

> During this time gold has also been upheld as the only safe investment

This isn't true, or at least there isn't consensus around that idea all of the time

> doom is always around the corner

That's just the boom and bust nature of the economic cycles. It's true of any other natural cycle, from the fall from paradise to the fall of Rome. I recommend Georges Canguilhem "The Normal and the Pathological", though I must admit I didn't even fully understood that book when I read it as a teenager.

Re: A Beginner’s Guide to MMT

#77
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The money supply has almost quadrupled in the last 10 years, yet inflation has been low. Explained by "traditional" (e.g., Keynesian) economics already: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_lower_bound When QE was introduced, the US political Right went ape shit talking about inflation. Krugman (for one) predicted it would be fine because of interest rates, citing Japan as an example: > Everyone knows about the inf…

What exactly keeps you from implementing a negative interest rate? I.e. some form of tax on held cash?

Nothing. It’s already been done. Sweden and the ECB used them for a few years.

Re: A Beginner’s Guide to MMT

#78
post #58

I think MMT is an interesting school of thought because the economy has been reacting in a way contrary to what the data suggests. We're in the tenth year of an economic expansion and wages are only just starting to increase -- and at a modest pace at that. The amount of inequality in our economy is not accurately represented in GDP or unemployment. You would think inflation would perk up this long into an expansion…

> You would think inflation would perk up this long into an expansion but since most of the gains have gone to the wealthy (who don't spend as much as their income as normal folk) the economy is not as dynamic as we thought it would be

This is exactly what happens when new money in injected at exclusive points. The upper class accumulates ever more financial power, while the lower class is kept fighting over the scraps. An amount that could be a major life changing expense for most of the country is presently a throwaway gadget purchase for someone working for the banksters in NYC or the surveillance industry in SF.

Financially, MMT is analogous to a kid not being stopped for taking money from their parents' wallets to buy candy, so they move on to taking larger sums - whether this is actually a problem entirely depends on how much their parents make. Financial deficits only work as long as they do not undermine faith in the issuer. For the US, this effectively based on energy (historically including Saudi Arabia) and military might. "Withdraw" at a rate faster than "depositors" will tolerate, and faith in greenbacks will collapse.

MMT is especially ironic because it's gaining political support in the name of "going green". But it's actually the same vein of consumerist greenwashing as that "third R" - recycling. Heating up the economy fundamentally causes more crap to be produced ("full employment" !). If you want to conserve earth's natural resources and leave that carbon in the ground, support simply letting natural deflation actually occur.

I will say however, that if MMT can end up justifying an alternative to just dumping most of the consumer-bound printed money into the housing sector, that alone could be a great thing.

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