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Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes

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Re: Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes

#181

Post by repolfx »

dragonwriter wrote: post #157
SiVal wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, fellow American, how about this, then: You're in prison, want to get out, and are granted an appeal. If you lose the appeal, that's the end. You stay in prison. But you win the appeal. Not guilty. But instead of allowing you to leave, the prosecutors demand you be tried again. After all, if you really are not guilty, what possible objection could you have to another trial? Or let's say that I'm President. You a…

That analogy requires a strong reason to see being kept in the EU as a punishment rather than being ejected from it as one, because if you reverse the scenario between guilty and not guilty, well, a new trial based on signficant new information is actually an accepted thing in the US.

There are strong reasons to see it that way, the Leave campaign was built on them.

Re: Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes

#182

Post by robdachshund »

grey-area wrote: post #137
vixen99 wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And if the remainers had won with a 'tiny margin' the same argument could be made. It's clear you have an agenda though you don't apply the same arguments on the other side for those whose pockets are well-lined directly by the EU. I do understand that turkeys don't vote for Christmas. As for your comparison with fascism, you need to extend your reading on the subject.

My point was it is very foolish and provides no democratic mandate to vote on such vast changes with a simple majority. Whatever the outcome, it was an extremely bad idea in what is supposed to be a representative democracy. So I think you're agreeing with me there. You think the EU funded illegal propaganda like that funded via the russian embassy? Got any proof of that? Arron banks is being investigated currently:…

Wise people don't tell others what is and isn't foolish. No idea what you're getting at anyway. Maybe cut back on the Rachel maddow and get some fresh air.

Re: Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes

#183

Post by grey-area »

dingaling wrote: post #159
grey-area wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Democracy is a process not a single vote. People voted based on russian-funded lies funnelled through corrupt millionaires like Arron Banks, illegally funded and illegally targetting voters with murky data from the likes of cambridge analytica, using extensive and highly targetted ad campaigns on FB (still going on btw - over £500k spent this week). Among other lies politicians told them that we'd stay in the custons…

> People voted based on russian-funded lies ... Well I voted Leave because this is likely to be the last chance for the UK to get out of ever-tighter European political integration. About which we were never consulted before engaging. In the 1980s I backpacked around Europe and met many wonderful people. But not once did I think that "what we need is an additional layer of federal government to bind us all into one d…

I do think we should avoid talk of 'the common people' because it's impossible to know with any clarity what 'the people' want, and it changes over time. This is why we live in a representative democracies, not direct democracies.

Personally I think the EU is a force for good in the world. It has failings - the parliament does not yet have enough power, and the treatment of Greece was a travesty, but in spite of that it has lead Europe from war, dictatorship and acrimony to peace and prosperity. The end goal is of course a federal state and for the states within that to be subsidiary, and a large free market of work and goods within that area. Sounds good to me compared to the sclerotic British state still fondly grasping at dreams of lost Empire.

If the EU fails, the UK fails with it, regardless of whether we are in or out. If war comes to Europe we will not be able to avoid it. So the independence given by Brexit is an illusion. I find it highly unlikely that the UK will have more influence, more independence ore more power outside the EU, simply because of its size and proximity. So in my view Brexit is a false choice between a dream of independence which cannot truly exist in our global world, and the spectre of an evil federal state dictating our every move. Why not help to build the federal state we'd like to see in the world? If I had to start somewhere building a new state, I certainly wouldn't start with the current UK political system and UK state.

Re: Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes

#184

Post by nicoburns »

KSteffensen wrote: post #177
nicoburns wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think a postponement is pretty likely at this point.

Postponement doesn't solve any problems. The Irish border issue will remain intractable. And not leaving after all won't happen either, British pride and dreams of Empire can't handle that humiliation. My money is on the no deal exit, even though that implies the hard border to Ireland.

> Postponement doesn't solve any problems.

It does solve one problem: that otherwise we crash out with no deal by default.

> And not leaving after all won't happen either, British pride and dreams of Empire can't handle that humiliation.

That's not the only force in Britain though. Plenty of people, especially young people, see themselves as European as much as British. And plenty of people are ashamed of the empire too.

> My money is on the no deal exit, even though that implies the hard border to Ireland.

It could happen, but I don't think anybody is keen to see a resurgence in Irish terrorism, which is not unlikely in a No Deal scenario. And this is even ignoring the significant downsides this would have for the British economy.

Re: Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes

#185

Post by nicoburns »

andrenth wrote: post #176
nicoburns wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Personally, I think that if you're going to do that you may as well just skip the referendum entirely, declare that the whole thing's cancelled and save everyone a lot of bother. I think it's significantly more democratic to have another vote. Most people thought remain would win the first one, but they didn't. If leave won again, we'd definitely definitely have to leave. > there'd be no Leave option as most people…

It’s much more democratic to respect the original vote, no?

How? If people have changed their minds due to how the Brexit negotiations have proceeded, then it is democratic to seek and respect that new opinion? If they haven't, then they can make that clear too.

It would only be undemocratic if there was coercion to vote a certain way in the second referendum. But I don't see that happening.

Re: Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes

#186

Post by menckenjr »

SiVal wrote: post #165
dragonwriter wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That analogy requires a strong reason to see being kept in the EU as a punishment rather than being ejected from it as one, because if you reverse the scenario between guilty and not guilty, well, a new trial based on signficant new information is actually an accepted thing in the US.

The "confusion" was about why anyone would object to just having another vote. The majority of voters voted for "let us out", which is a strong reason why--to those voters--being forced to stay where they don't want to stay is a far better analogy than fear of being forced out.

What happens if, on a re-vote, more of the "Leave" voters changed to "Remain"?

Re: Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes

#187

Post by andrenth »

nicoburns wrote: post #185
andrenth wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s much more democratic to respect the original vote, no?

How? If people have changed their minds due to how the Brexit negotiations have proceeded, then it is democratic to seek and respect that new opinion? If they haven't, then they can make that clear too. It would only be undemocratic if there was coercion to vote a certain way in the second referendum. But I don't see that happening.

But when does it end? What if people change their minds again?

Re: Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes

#188

Post by osrec »

_rpd wrote: post #138
osrec wrote: post #22

I think this just goes to show that maybe the entire Brexit option was not a good one. I mean, why would Theresa May not try and get a good deal - she is trying her level best, powering through defeat after defeat in the house! One could conclude that, perhaps, there just isn't a good deal to be had. Brexiteers seem to have this "it'll be alright on the night" attitude - as if they want to leave without weighing up t…

> "The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence." I love Bukowski, but this quote should be attributed to Yeats or Russell ... https://quoteinvestigator.com/2015/03/04/self-doubt/

Fair enough!

Re: Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes

#189

Post by ufo »

ars wrote: post #153
treis wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It seems no one wants Brexit as it has been suggested by the political leadership of UK, and the majority want to avoid no deal at all. There's basically two big stumbling blocks: The first is that there has to be a customs check between either: (1) The EU/Republic of Ireland , (2) ROI and Northern Ireland, or (3) Northern Ireland and Britain (the island). (1) is unacceptable to the EU. (2) breaks the Good Friday a…

What happens if there is no customs check at any of those locations? i.e. each party says "you do it, I won't", and it ends up that no one did?

You could have that by agreeing on a free trade deal between the UK and EU, which is what May's Withdrawal Agreemenent wants to do.

The problem is that by using a trade deal the status quo the UK is effectively losing its voice in the EU parliament without gainign anything in exchange. This is unsatisfactory to both the leave and remain camps of the UK parliament.

Re: Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes

#190

Post by repolfx »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #167
atombender wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In terms of "political suicide": It's complicated. There are lots of MPs who would want nothing more than to scrap Brexit or at least hold a second referendum. However, the situation is similar to what's happening with Trump and the Republican Party in the US: Politicians vote on party lines against their personal beliefs (or the desires of their constituents) simply so the party can hold on to power. May and the Tor…

> May and her colleagues would prefer Brexit to losing their power. That I think is the fundamental problem. It's not unique to May, or even to the UK, either. You see this all the time. Politicians want to win the next election more than they want to do the right thing (or even the right thing according to their own views). But if you can't do what you think should be done, what's the point of having power?

That's not the problem, that's the entire point of democracy. It boggles my mind that such a basic point of civil society is so difficult to understand for so many.

There is no reason to believe MPs can "do the right thing". Their analysis skills are weak, they routinely say things that are factually false, they manipulate, they lie and their numeracy skills are nearly non-existent.

Some examples. Most of them can't even tell you what the probability of flipping two heads in a row is:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-19801666

The Shadow Home Secretary, i.e. the woman who is one election victory away from running the police, went on public radio and simply made numbers up off the top of her head for how much money would be spent on the police. Even worse the numbers were absurd, like costing only £300,000 pounds to hire 10,000 police officers:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/diane-abbot-l...

It's clear that Theresa May and most MPs don't even understand the basics of negotiation, like "you must be willing to walk away".

Politicians should absolutely not be doing what they think the right thing is, they are wildly unqualified to decide that. Their job is to do what their voters ask them to do, as faithfully as possible, and nothing else. It's when politicians start to think they know better than their voters that power has corrupted them and the problems really start. That's the root of all dictatorships and the sorts of miseries that have throughout history killed millions of people.

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