No deal looks increasingly on the table, what I fear most is it forces another general election that brings a party like ukip back to the fore. It is in both parties interests to vote for a deal, but their selfish bickering has already seen a fracture in labour and you could see more splitters and divided coalition parties building an alliance with ukip to get a majority
Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes
51–60 of 192 posts
Re: Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes
#52I've said this before so I'll ask this again- I'm an American and I'm entirely ignorant on UK politics. I've followed the headlines and I am still confused why Brexit is happening. It seems no one wants Brexit as it has been suggested by the political leadership of UK, and the majority want to avoid no deal at all. I do not understand why not call the entire Brexit thing off; why is that political suicide?
Well, people vote for something and you ignore their democratic vote. Pretty bad.
Democracy is a process not a single vote.
People voted based on russian-funded lies funnelled through corrupt millionaires like Arron Banks, illegally funded and illegally targetting voters with murky data from the likes of cambridge analytica, using extensive and highly targetted ad campaigns on FB (still going on btw - over £500k spent this week). Among other lies politicians told them that we'd stay in the custons union and havd more money for the nhs, but mostly they played on a fear of immigrants.
Brexit won by a tiny margin on the largest constitutional change since the act of union, but somehow 'the will of the people' at that moment in time is inviolate and can never be questioned.
That's facism, not democracy.
Re: Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes
#53It's getting closer and closer to a no-deal, and yet the pound doesn't really go down. Does anybody understand why?
I think the consensus is they will just extend instead of actually going through a 100% no-deal Brexit. Seems like a fairly safe bet given the UK can do it unilaterally and how bad it would be.
Why would the EU allow the UK to extend this one-foot-in-one-foot out nonsense? It's not clear that any deal it is willing to offer will get parliamentary assent.
Re: Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes
#54I liked the Jon Snow exchange on twitter
Jon Snow (British journalist): "A Lawyer contact tells me that the legal world is aware that the Attorney General said NO last night to the validity of Mrs May's 'new EU deal'...he been told to go away and find a way to say YES: A cohort of lawyers has been summoned"
Attorney General: "Bollocks"
Re: Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes
#55> MPs voted down her deal by 391 to 242 - a smaller defeat than when they rejected it in January.
> The PM said MPs will now get a vote on whether the UK should leave without a deal on 29 March and, if that fails, on whether Brexit should be delayed.
What happens if they vote "No" three times in a row (no deal, no no-deal, no postponement)?
If this wasn't politics I'd say: See if you can simplify this function, bonus points if you can avoid error conditions too:
func brexit(){
if(deal){
exit(deal);
} else {
if(!deal) {
exit(null);
} else {
if(postpone){
wait(TIME);
brexit();
} else {
throw new handsInTheAir();
}
}
}
}Re: Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes
#56The current BBC headline is "Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes", which is a better summary of the situation. For a variety of reasons (legal, procedural, and political) MPs can't simply resolve to reject Brexit, and didn't do so today. What they can do is reject the exit deal that May has negotiated. Some of them have voted to do this because they want a 'softer' Brexit with a closer ongoing relation…
Welcome to the club! I'm not sure if it's a good club to begin with, but at least the USA isn't alone with its current political status.
Re: Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes
#57I've said this before so I'll ask this again- I'm an American and I'm entirely ignorant on UK politics. I've followed the headlines and I am still confused why Brexit is happening. It seems no one wants Brexit as it has been suggested by the political leadership of UK, and the majority want to avoid no deal at all. I do not understand why not call the entire Brexit thing off; why is that political suicide?
Well, it's a democracy, they let the people vote, and the people voted in favor of leaving the EU. It's the same for me as a non-American looking at the whole Trump situation. The people chose him as their president, yet I get the impression (again, I'm an outsider) that very few people like him as a president.
he lost the popular vote but thanks to the Electoral College won the presidency
Re: Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes
#58You have to admire May for being stubborn. I'd have thrown up my hands and said 'OK, you figure it out then. Have fun!'
But I do feel she tried too much for too long, and things seems not to be working, perhaps she should let someone else take an attempt at the problem.
Re: Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes
#59Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's not impossible, but probably not. I'd give it maybe a 10% chance. There's a clear majority of MP's who don't want a No Deal scenario. Most likely there will be a postponement of some kind, but probably a short one. What happens at the end of that period is entirely unclear at this point. Leaving without a deal is still a distinct possibility, but probably not the most likely one. I'd give about even odds to some…
You mean there's only 10% chance than the UK will leave the EU? That's pretty low!
No, there's only a 10% chance that the UK will leave in 10 days, with no deal. At least, that's how I read nicoburns' answer.
Re: Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes
#60The current BBC headline is "Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes", which is a better summary of the situation. For a variety of reasons (legal, procedural, and political) MPs can't simply resolve to reject Brexit, and didn't do so today. What they can do is reject the exit deal that May has negotiated. Some of them have voted to do this because they want a 'softer' Brexit with a closer ongoing relation…
Do you personally think that the UK will actually end up leaving the EU in 10 days? If yes, what are the chances of that happening?
I hope not; in addition to negotiating an exit deal, there's also a stack of legislative changes that need to be made before exit (deal or otherwise) which are stacked up and waiting. It's nearly impossible to see how that can be done even partially adequately at this point, so any exit would very likely be (1) with no deal (May's won't fly and there's no chance of negotiating another one this month) and (2) totally ill-prepared.
My guess is an overwhelming (but utterly non-binding) rejection of 'no deal' by Parliament tomorrow, followed by a large majority on Thursday asking for a short-term extension of Article 50 to try to sort something out, followed by the EU saying "a year or nothing", followed by public disagreements, followed by an agreement for an extension of between two months and a year. Nobody actually wants a chaotic exit except a few financiers, and we're doing enough damage to ourselves that I doubt the EU wants to enforce a punishment beating at a cost to their own member states' economies.
As for the final outcome, I'd guess:
* No deal (10%)
* May's deal (10%)
* New (softer) deal (40%)
* Second referendum (40%), with any option possible after that from no Brexit at all to the public saying 'sod you all' and demanding a no deal exit.
But anything's possible at this point; we're off the map and predictions on the process I was much more confident on have already been wrong.