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Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

arstechnica.com

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Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#201

Post by dx034 »

billhathaway wrote: post #56
peeters wrote: post #32

I've always found that half the issue is with the name: Autopilot. On an airplane, autopilot means you can take your focus off of both the physical and mental act of moving the plane through the air, and if it needs you to intercede there is pretty much no emergency in which you wouldn't have a few seconds to react. In a car, Tesla's Autopilot simply doesn't give you that. If you are reading and your autopilot exits,…

I wish Tesla called something like driver assist. I use it for 90% of my commute and it is super helpful, but I would never pick a name for it of auto-pilot.

But that's the term other manufacturers use (for similar features) so Tesla wouldn't have a "unique" feature anymore. A lot of their marketing revolves around offering a product none of the big manufacturers offer.

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#202

Post by coraltime »

imtringued wrote: post #188
est31 wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For self-driving cars, what would that be? You can misuse a non-self driving car by speeding, giving you above-average chances of accidents. You can be old, giving you above average chances of being involved in accidents (per km driven). You can smoke, giving you above average chances of getting lung cancer. You can misuse a partially self driving car by somehow convincing it that you do follow the traffic while actu…

>You can misuse a non-self driving car by speeding, giving you above-average chances of accidents. I feel like it's the opposite... When I drive the speed limit, other drivers around me become more aggressive. Even if they have to exit the highway 20 seconds later they fiercely fight for tiny speed differences of 10km/h, start flashing their headlights, etc.

Maybe on access-limited highways.

But on (sub)urban streets driving the speed limit decreases the chance of causing serious injury to other road users, including pedestrians, even if it may lead to an increase in the total number of crashes between motorists.

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#203

Post by xbmcuser »

scottlamb wrote: post #163
salty_biscuits wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the hands of a consumer, don't forget being diligent with maintenance, driving on unsealed roads, choosing to drive in poor conditions. There are probably a lot more. It is surprising how much some people abuse machines.

Waymo's "shipped product" is likely to be a fleet service in several cities, at least at first, so maintenance is their responsibility. Likewise, I'd imagine unsealed roads would be outside initial coverage areas. (Note that while I work at Google, I don't have any particularly relevant inside knowledge. What I'm saying is consistent with their current pilot in Phoenix and public articles.)

They already have a fleet although in just a part of one city. They will keep expanding the fleet and the area/cities covered over time. Instead of one big announcement that we have selfdriving cars they will keep expanding and improving over decades. And just like people kept harping about driving range of electric cars. They will suddenly be everywhere. Car manufacturers are wary of Waymo so far but the first large manafacturer to join hands with them will probably dominate car/transport industry of the future.

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#204

Post by amanaplanacanal »

leesec wrote: post #11
petra wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, it's a great way to inflate the stock price. Much better than saying "We'll be just another car company, when self-driving arrives".

Well they also have billions of miles of data from people who have actually drove their car hands free, feet free. No one even has close to this data.

Do they have more data than Waymo? That doesn't seem completely clear to me. They certainly have more vehicles on the road, but I assume they are driven many fewer hours per day.

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#205

Post by close04 »

leesec wrote: post #117
close04 wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What kind of traffic and road conditions does that trip involve and how much are you an observer vs. you hanging on to the wheel and paying attention to everything as if you were driving yourself (staying engaged) as you are required by the law and by common sense? And if you don't mind me asking, how would you quantify in real money the value added by the system?

The 90% I am talking about is a 12~ mile stretch of poorly maintained highway near Detroit usually in stop and go traffic and yes I am paying attention. I wouldn't quantify the value in real money. I would say the main benefit provides is that I have much less decision fatigue and am less stressed after my commute. I also don't care how fast I really get there anymore since I just optimize for less stress, and my tri…

> I have much less decision fatigue and am less stressed

Then you're not engaged. It's scientifically proven that your brain is no longer alert if you are not constantly engaged. And you can't be magically less stressed by decisions while being fully engaged and alert in order to verify each of those decisions. It's like saying a calculator makes you life easier because you no longer have to calculate yourself to get the result, you only have to calculate yourself to verify the result.

You're either less stressed because your mind simply offloaded tome tasks to the car contrary to the law and common sense, or you're actually engaged and your brain is doing what any driver would normally do so the whole effect is placebo. Which is cool I guess but this last one can be had for a lot less.

Driver assists are there as a backup, not to rely on them to do what you no longer feel like doing because it's too stressful. And if you feel less stressed letting a pretty dumb AI (compared to a human driver) with poorer eyesight than yours to drive you around you must be a pretty laid back person anyway.

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#206

Post by est31 »

imtringued wrote: post #188
est31 wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For self-driving cars, what would that be? You can misuse a non-self driving car by speeding, giving you above-average chances of accidents. You can be old, giving you above average chances of being involved in accidents (per km driven). You can smoke, giving you above average chances of getting lung cancer. You can misuse a partially self driving car by somehow convincing it that you do follow the traffic while actu…

>You can misuse a non-self driving car by speeding, giving you above-average chances of accidents. I feel like it's the opposite... When I drive the speed limit, other drivers around me become more aggressive. Even if they have to exit the highway 20 seconds later they fiercely fight for tiny speed differences of 10km/h, start flashing their headlights, etc.

I meant speeding in a more general sense of driving faster than what's safe given the circumstances. E.g. you shouldn't get near the all-year limit if there's ice on the road. In dry lit summer conditions with nobody on the road you can drive much faster.

If you are driving during rush hour where everyone is stressful, then idiots will flash headlights, do risky behaviour, etc, that's true. And yeah, driving slightly over the speed limit to be consistent with the traffic around you is generally a good idea. But if they are too much over the limit, it's their doing, not mine, and if the risky behaviour causes an accident in which I'm involved, it won't be my fault if I'm following the rules. Conversely, no judge will accept it as an argument if you speed because of the idiots and you cause an accident.

I personally just let the idiots be idiots. Especially when the limit has a cause, e.g. a construction site or something: they put a lower speed limit for the safety of the construction workers. I won't compromise their safety, not a bit.

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#207

Post by devy »

ec109685 wrote: post #152
devy wrote: post #64

The top editor promoted comment[1] on the article summed up very well. The attention problem is well known in engineering. It is very hard to get a human to concentrate on something that will turn up good more than 99% of the time, even when there's serious or fatal consequences of failure. Trains are the classic example - tracks are amost always clear, signals are almost always correct which means you have to devise…

I am not sure how Tesla’s system is much different than Waymo’s. In both cases, the cars can steer themselves under limited circumstances. Getting to full auto driving in crazy situations like single lane roads or unprotected left turns will take a long time. But using it in the situations it can handle today is very useful. At least with the Tesla, you can actually drive in places it doesn’t support auto pilot, unli…

> I am not sure how Tesla’s system is much different than Waymo’s.

Waymo's ultimate self-driving vehicle will not have a steering wheel (as seen in their early prototypes) as the vehicle will take human out of the driving equation. Tesla will probably always have one in the foreseeable future (as they are tackling autonomous driving an drive-assist system). That's the big difference to me.

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#208

Post by ec109685 »

alkonaut wrote: post #184
ec109685 wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the camera is broken, Tesla will obviously not enable auto driving. It has a steering wheel for a reason.

If it’s “broken” every morning for months in winter climates like the cameras I mention, then people there won’t pay a premium for the capability. And if it doesn’t keep itself ice free it will risk going from uncovered to covered in seconds. Cameras need to be ice/snow/rain proof in the sense that they stay clear of it while driving.

What about a heated camera lens?

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#209

Post by jononor »

gok wrote: post #169
FireBeyond wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> These reports really should be sealed from the public. Yeah, the public has no right to know what vehicles on public roads are capable (or incapable of). And we wouldn't want pesky innocent deaths to impede with Uber's ability to "bring self driving to market"...

The public has a right to know how unaided AVs on public roads operate. The "number of disengagements" of prototypes reported by corporate research programs has no relation to this.

What's a better metric or way of measuring it?

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#210

Post by ec109685 »

devy wrote: post #207
ec109685 wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not sure how Tesla’s system is much different than Waymo’s. In both cases, the cars can steer themselves under limited circumstances. Getting to full auto driving in crazy situations like single lane roads or unprotected left turns will take a long time. But using it in the situations it can handle today is very useful. At least with the Tesla, you can actually drive in places it doesn’t support auto pilot, unli…

> I am not sure how Tesla’s system is much different than Waymo’s. Waymo's ultimate self-driving vehicle will not have a steering wheel (as seen in their early prototypes) as the vehicle will take human out of the driving equation. Tesla will probably always have one in the foreseeable future (as they are tackling autonomous driving an drive-assist system). That's the big difference to me.

Sorry, I meant in practical use today. Both auto driving systems only work in certain situations for the foreseeable future.
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