Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#91

Post by bombas » Fri, Mar 08, 2019, 9:58 PM UTC

leesec wrote: post #84

mikestew wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least Tesla has an actual product you can buy? I have a self-driving automotive product you can buy. It doesn't work as advertised, either. Calling a lamb's tail a leg doesn't make for a five-legged farm animal. This reminds me of the conversations about, say, phone authentication using facial identification. "Samsung had it before FaceID!" Yeah, I had one of those Samsung phones. It did not do what it said on the…

What do you call it when a Tesla drives me 90% of the way to work where I don't do anything but observe? It's not full self driving but it definitely is driving it self and providing value.

^Exactly. I think Tesla's marketing is shit around this. Elon needs to shut the hell up on twitter as well.

Stop coming at me with Waymo is 10 years ahead of Tesla... Ok great, are they shipping & delivering any value to paying customers? Waiting.......

In 5 years time, do you really think Waymo will have paying customers and have gained regulatory approval? Hell no...

Tesla at least realizes they can't get passed the regulatory hurdle. Keep driver at the wheel, provide a value, automate and refine.

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#92

Post by cbhl » Fri, Mar 08, 2019, 10:00 PM UTC

perl4ever wrote: post #59

Animats wrote: post #49

Waymo keeps plugging away. Each year, for the last few years, the number of miles between disconnects they report to the CA DMV has doubled. Three more doublings, and that number will be bigger than average miles between accidents for human drivers. Then they can ship a product. Nobody else is even close. This problem is slowly being solved, by normal engineering practices. The "fake it til you make it" players are b…

"Three more doublings, and that number will be bigger than average miles between accidents for human drivers. Then they can ship a product." I am skeptical of that, because I expect that even if disconnects are ultra-rare overall, and the testing is representative of normal usage, there will be enough people that frequently use the technology in ways far off on the tail of the distribution that for them, disconnects…

I'm way less worried about this than when Waymo was originally called the Google Self-Driving Car Project.

If Uber and Tesla continue with their current plans, they will have enough accidents that self-driving cars being in accidents will cease being headline news. They just become an actuarial math problem, just like regular car insurance is today.

(This is my opinion and not that of my employer.)

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#93

Post by mikestew » Fri, Mar 08, 2019, 10:01 PM UTC

leesec wrote: post #84

mikestew wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least Tesla has an actual product you can buy? I have a self-driving automotive product you can buy. It doesn't work as advertised, either. Calling a lamb's tail a leg doesn't make for a five-legged farm animal. This reminds me of the conversations about, say, phone authentication using facial identification. "Samsung had it before FaceID!" Yeah, I had one of those Samsung phones. It did not do what it said on the…

What do you call it when a Tesla drives me 90% of the way to work where I don't do anything but observe? It's not full self driving but it definitely is driving it self and providing value.

It's not full self driving

I call the same thing you call it, apparently.

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#94

Post by close04 » Fri, Mar 08, 2019, 10:03 PM UTC

leesec wrote: post #84

mikestew wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least Tesla has an actual product you can buy? I have a self-driving automotive product you can buy. It doesn't work as advertised, either. Calling a lamb's tail a leg doesn't make for a five-legged farm animal. This reminds me of the conversations about, say, phone authentication using facial identification. "Samsung had it before FaceID!" Yeah, I had one of those Samsung phones. It did not do what it said on the…

What do you call it when a Tesla drives me 90% of the way to work where I don't do anything but observe? It's not full self driving but it definitely is driving it self and providing value.

What kind of traffic and road conditions does that trip involve and how much are you an observer vs. you hanging on to the wheel and paying attention to everything as if you were driving yourself (staying engaged) as you are required by the law and by common sense?

And if you don't mind me asking, how would you quantify in real money the value added by the system?

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#95

Post by mbreese » Fri, Mar 08, 2019, 10:04 PM UTC

zaroth wrote: post #88

FireBeyond wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> At least Tesla has an actual product you can buy? What self driving product do they have? Elon's "Oh yeah, we will have full self driving coast to coast in [8 months]" is horseshit to the point of "How is he allowed to say this on an earnings call?" Other competitors, widely recognized to be ahead of Tesla estimate 5, more likely 10 YEARS. Coast to coast? Your Tesla will navigate a Pittsburgh winter storm on poor r…

My wife’s car has a similar long list of “features” (Mercedes DISTRONIC package with active lane keeping) and it is nothing even remotely comparable to driving my TM3 with autopilot. Those cars do not steer themselves. The difference between having to steer the car and not having to steer the car is extreme. It totally changes the way you drive. Instead of looking down your lane and keeping the car centered, you scan…

And my wife’s Acura will completely steer itself (with a much shorter list of features), but requires your hands on the wheel. It works without your hands, but it gets testy if you don’t move the wheel slightly every 15 seconds.

It’s significantly nicer to drive long stretches with this system, but I can’t imagine doing it without your hands on the wheel. When the sensors fail (weather or poor lane markings), you need to be able to take over immediately. Granting too much autonomy to the system is just too risky (and the point of the article).

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#96

Post by zaroth » Fri, Mar 08, 2019, 10:09 PM UTC

I’ve read so many of these articles obviously written by someone who has no hands-on experience with the Tesla Autopilot and what it actually does for the driving experience.

Maybe Tesla will get to a point where my TM3 will drive me to work while I nap, or use my phone. One thing that’s pretty amazing is that if they can get to that point, it will come as a free automatic software update or an available for purchase hardware upgrade on my current car.

This month my car will be getting 5% faster acceleration from an OTA update - how cool is that?

But right now, the reality is that I can engage AutoPilot on the highway and it immediately and dramatically changes the driving experience. Instead of focusing on steering the car, I am focused on situational awareness. I am not just looking down my lane, I am looking at the cars around me, who is passing who, what might be coming up around that bend, that guy on his phone next to me, etc.

I can look at over drivers and assess whether they are paying attention and avoid them if needed.

Because the car is actually lane keeping — not what everyone else calls lane keeping which (surprise) is a total lie - but actively steering the car in the lane around curves and centering the car in the lane probably more precisely than I would be if I were steering manually.

I strongly believe, if AutoPilot never truly advanced much beyond its current capability, and as the currently functionality becomes more widespread, we will wonder 15 years from now, how did people operate their vehicles without this level of assistance? How could you be properly aware of your surroundings if you had to be so preoccupied with minor steering inputs?

If you use your phone and watch a movie or put on makeup while driving, you are breaking the law and endangering yourself and those around you.

Every time a new technology comes to cars people say it will distract, or hypnotize, or lull drivers into distraction (see wipers, radios, automatic transmissions, original cruise control) and anyone who has actually driven with AutoPilot knows this feature is no different.

As a Tesla owner I enjoy and appreciate Tesla’s real-world approach to self-driving and it makes my life better and my drive safer. Thank you Tesla.

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#97

Post by est31 » Fri, Mar 08, 2019, 10:19 PM UTC

perl4ever wrote: post #59

Animats wrote: post #49

Waymo keeps plugging away. Each year, for the last few years, the number of miles between disconnects they report to the CA DMV has doubled. Three more doublings, and that number will be bigger than average miles between accidents for human drivers. Then they can ship a product. Nobody else is even close. This problem is slowly being solved, by normal engineering practices. The "fake it til you make it" players are b…

"Three more doublings, and that number will be bigger than average miles between accidents for human drivers. Then they can ship a product." I am skeptical of that, because I expect that even if disconnects are ultra-rare overall, and the testing is representative of normal usage, there will be enough people that frequently use the technology in ways far off on the tail of the distribution that for them, disconnects…

For self-driving cars, what would that be? You can misuse a non-self driving car by speeding, giving you above-average chances of accidents. You can be old, giving you above average chances of being involved in accidents (per km driven). You can smoke, giving you above average chances of getting lung cancer. You can misuse a partially self driving car by somehow convincing it that you do follow the traffic while actually not following it, and then blame any accidents onto the self-drive feature.

But fully self driving cars only have two inputs: starting point and destination. Doesn't matter whether you are old, sleeping, 13 or a dog. Unless some roads are more susceptible to accidents than others, or manufacturers let people also fiddle with how much a car should risk accidents in order to get a little decrease in travel time, I don't see any way possible. And if manufacturers really do give that option, it's truly their fault.

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#98

Post by zaroth » Fri, Mar 08, 2019, 10:20 PM UTC

close04 wrote: post #90

zaroth wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My wife’s car has a similar long list of “features” (Mercedes DISTRONIC package with active lane keeping) and it is nothing even remotely comparable to driving my TM3 with autopilot. Those cars do not steer themselves. The difference between having to steer the car and not having to steer the car is extreme. It totally changes the way you drive. Instead of looking down your lane and keeping the car centered, you scan…

> The difference between having to steer the car and not having to steer the car is extreme Assuming you keep your hands on the wheel as required what exactly is the difference? I only found it to be a distraction as it takes me considerably longer to reengage (in less than expected situations) as the human driver after a period where I just let go a little.

That’s your experience as a Tesla driver?

I don’t have any “reengagement lag” as you might say. When I want to start steering the car again I just start steering. There is a slight resistance felt in the wheel if you turn past the autopilot without flipping the right stick up to explicitly disengage AP first.

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#99

Post by zaroth » Fri, Mar 08, 2019, 10:24 PM UTC

mbreese wrote: post #95

zaroth wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My wife’s car has a similar long list of “features” (Mercedes DISTRONIC package with active lane keeping) and it is nothing even remotely comparable to driving my TM3 with autopilot. Those cars do not steer themselves. The difference between having to steer the car and not having to steer the car is extreme. It totally changes the way you drive. Instead of looking down your lane and keeping the car centered, you scan…

And my wife’s Acura will completely steer itself (with a much shorter list of features), but requires your hands on the wheel. It works without your hands, but it gets testy if you don’t move the wheel slightly every 15 seconds. It’s significantly nicer to drive long stretches with this system, but I can’t imagine doing it without your hands on the wheel. When the sensors fail (weather or poor lane markings), you nee…

Are you taking about LKAS? [1]

Not trying to be rude, but that is nothing at all like driving with AutoPilot.

[1] - https://youtu.be/iKWBdySgssE

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#100

Post by ufmace » Fri, Mar 08, 2019, 10:26 PM UTC

CPLX wrote: post #29

It's funny how much people have danced around all this, including this article, but what Musk has done with his statements on self-driving capabilities is called lying .

Lying seems to have a strong moral component in English that doesn't seem to be evident here. Most people would say that a proper "lie" involves intentionally trying to convince somebody of something that you know is not true, usually for personal gain. If Musk honestly believes that he can do it, then I guess it isn't technically a lie, even if most people who know the industry say he would have to be delusional to believe that.

It does feel a bit pedantic to say that though. If Musk is sometimes delusionally optimistic instead of intentionally deceptive, how much does it matter to us? I guess the level of delusionalism does vary some - Tesla might meet vehicle production targets, SpaceX might meet their intended date for the first crewed mission, but a Tesla car with current production hardware driving coast to coast while the driver reads a book sometime this year has no chance whatsoever of happening.

Also worth considering that the Silicon Valley VC universe does tend to reward people who could be described as being delusionally optimistic, and thus encourage them to continue to think in that way.